Minnesota Climate Projections

The following maps were created in partnership with the University of Wisconsin and use statistical downscaling to project changes to Minnesota's climate at the end of the century (2100). Below are a variety of maps showing projected changes to temperature and precipitation for two different emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two different time periods in the future, including mid-century (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100). Please see the Glossary of Terms and Citations below for more information on these climate projection data. 

Projected Temperature Change

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Mid-Century (2041-2060) relative to historical (1981-2010)

Change in average annual mean temperature

Number of nights that are below freezing: historical and two different emissions scenarios

Number of days hotter than 100 degrees Fahrenheit: historical and two different emissions scenarios

End of Century (2081-2100) relative to historical (1981-2010)

Change in average annual mean temperature

Number of nights that are below freezing: historical and two different emissions scenarios

Number of days hotter than 100 degrees Fahrenheit: historical and two different emissions scenarios

Projected Precipitation Change

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Mid-Century (2041-2060) relative to historical (1981-2010)

Percent change in average annual precipitation

Average number of days in 100 years with more than 4 inches of precipitation: historical and two different emissions scenarios

End of Century (2081-2100) relative to historical (1981-2010)

Percent change in average annual precipitation

Average number of days in 100 years with more than 4 inches of precipitation: historical and two different emissions scenarios

Glossary of Terms

Emission Scenarios:
    1. Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5)  - carbon dioxide emissions peak around 2040 and decrease afterward, so that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are steady by 2100
    2. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) - carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric concentrations increase through 2100

Statistical downscaling - developing a statistical relationship between large-scale climate model output and local climate variables and using that relationship to project changes at the local scale. These projections use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models.

Citations

Maps courtesy of the University of Wisconsin Probabilistic Downscaling v2.0.

Kirchmeier, M. C., D. J. Lorenz, and D. J. Vimont, 2014: Statistical downscaling of daily wind speed variations. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0230.1.

Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., D. J. Lorenz, and D. J. Vimont, 2016: Extreme event verification for probabilistic downscaling. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology55, 2411–2430. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0043.1.

Wu, S., M. Markus, D. Lorenz, J. R. Angel, and K. Grady, 2019: A comparative analysis of the historical accuracy of the point precipitation frequency estimates of four data sets and their projections for the Northeastern United States. Water (Switzerland), 11. doi:10.3390/w11061279.