Minnesota Climate Projections (CMIP5)

The following maps were created in partnership with the University of Wisconsin and use statistical downscaling to project changes to Minnesota's climate at the end of the century (2100). Below are a variety of maps showing projected changes to temperature and precipitation for two different emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two different time periods in the future, including mid-century (2041-2060) and end-of-century (2081-2100). Please see the Glossary of Terms and Citations below for more information on these climate projection data. 

Changing Extremes

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Days per year with more than 1 inch of precipitation

The number of days per year when precipitation has exceeded or is projected to exceed 1 inch. Historical conditions (1981-2010 average) are shown on the left. Projected conditions by mid century (2041-2060) under an intermediate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario are shown on the right.
The number of days per year when precipitation has exceeded or is projected to exceed 1 inch. Historical conditions (1981-2010 average) are shown on the left. Projected conditions by mid century (2041-2060) under a high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario are shown on the right.

Nights per year less than 0 degrees F

The number of nights per year when minimum temperature has been or is projected to be below 0 degrees Fahrenheit. Historical conditions (1981-2010 average) are shown on the left. Projected conditions by mid century (2041-2060 average) under an intermediate (RCP 4.5) emissions scenario are shown on the right.
The number of nights per year when minimum temperature has been or is projected to be below 0 degrees Fahrenheit. Historical conditions (1981-2010 average) are shown on the left. Projected conditions by mid century (2041-2060 average) under a high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario are shown on the right.

Days per year warmer than 90 degrees F

The number of days per year when the daily maximum temperature has or is projected to exceed 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Historical conditions (1981-2010 average) are shown on the left. Projected conditions by mid century (2041-2060 average) under an intermediate (RCP 4.5) emissions scenario are shown on the right.
The number of days per year when the daily maximum temperature has or is projected to exceed 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Historical conditions (1981-2010 average) are shown on the left. Projected conditions by mid century (2041-2060 average) under a high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario are shown on the right.

Changing Temperature

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Annual maximum temperature projections

The projected change in maximum annual temperature by mid century (2041-2060) assuming a high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario.
The projected change in maximum annual temperature by the end of the century (2081-2100) assuming a high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario.

Observed change in minimum winter temp, 1950-2021

Observed change in minimum winter temperature from 1950 to 2021. An asterisk (*) indicates a significant trend. The change in degrees Fahrenheit is indicated for each climate division on the plot.

Changing Precipitation

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Projected change in summer precipitation

The projected change in summer precipitation by the end of the century (2081-2100 average) assuming a high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario.
The projected change in summer precipitation by mid century (2041-2060 average) assuming a high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario.

Observed percent change in spring precipitation

Observed change in spring precipitation from 1950 to 2021.

Glossary of Terms

Emission Scenarios:
    1. Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5)  - carbon dioxide emissions peak around 2040 and decrease afterward, so that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are steady by 2100
    2. Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) - carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric concentrations increase through 2100

Statistical downscaling - developing a statistical relationship between large-scale climate model output and local climate variables and using that relationship to project changes at the local scale. These projections use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models.

Citations

Maps courtesy of the University of Wisconsin Center for Climatic Research. Downscaled data is from the University of Wisconsin Probabilistic Downscaling v2.0.

Kirchmeier, M. C., D. J. Lorenz, and D. J. Vimont, 2014: Statistical downscaling of daily wind speed variations. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 53. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0230.1.

Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., D. J. Lorenz, and D. J. Vimont, 2016: Extreme event verification for probabilistic downscaling. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 55, 2411–2430. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0043.1.

Wu, S., M. Markus, D. Lorenz, J. R. Angel, and K. Grady, 2019: A comparative analysis of the historical accuracy of the point precipitation frequency estimates of four data sets and their projections for the Northeastern United States. Water (Switzerland), 11. doi:10.3390/w11061279.