Key Terms
- Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
- Mid-century: 2040-2059
- Late-century: 2060-2079
- End-of-century: 2080-2099
- Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
- Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)
Learn more about climate modeling and emissions scenarios
Changes we've already observed
Between 1895 and 2024, the average annual temperature in Minnesota has increased by 3.2°F.3 This increase in temperature is driving changes in our seasonal temperatures, decreasing the number of days per year with snow cover, increasing heavy rain events, and altering ecosystems across Minnesota. Warming has also accelerated in recent years. The years 2021, 2023, and 2024 are all in the top ten warmest on record in Minnesota.3
The coldest months of the year are warming the fastest, with the state’s average winter temperature increasing by 5.4°F and average winter low temperature increasing by 6.8°F.3 Average daily low temperatures have increased at more than twice the rate of the average daily high temperatures. In recent decades, winter warming has also accelerated significantly, with average daily low temperatures in winter rising over 15 times faster than summer high temperatures between 1970 and 2024.3
Minnesota also experienced, on average, an increase of 3.5 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2024.3 The largest single rain event has grown by 13%, and the state is now experiencing more frequent and intense heavy rainfall events than ever recorded.1 At the same time, Minnesota has experienced a rise in rapid transitions between wet and dry periods, resulting in flash drought conditions that increase moisture stress on both agricultural crops and native vegetation.5
Figure: Observed change in average annual, winter low and summer high temperature
Figure: Observed temperature change in Minnesota
Figure: Observed percent change in total annual precipitation
Projected changes in temperature
Future climate projections indicate Minnesota’s average temperature will continue to rise, accompanied by increased humidity and greater seasonal variability.6
By mid-century (2040-2059), the annual average daily maximum temperature in Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario.6
Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 6°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 4.9°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.6
Warming could fuel significant shifts in the state’s seasonal extremes. Under a very high emissions scenario, the number of days per year with minimum temperatures below freezing (32°F) could decline by nearly a month by mid-century (2040-2059), and by two months by the end of the century (2080-2099). During the summer months temperatures exceeding 100°F are expected to increase significantly by the end of the century, with the state projected to experience 20 days per year above 100°F under a very high emissions scenarios.6
Figure: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature
Table: Projected change in number of days annually with highs above 90°F and lows below 32°F in Minnesota by mid-century (2040-2059)
Emissions scenario | Change in number of days with highs above 90°F | Change in number of days with lows below 32°F |
|---|---|---|
Intermediate | +12 | -21 |
Very high | +17 | -24 |
Projected changes in precipitation
Precipitation across Minnesota is expected to become more intense, with more rainfall occurring in a single event and longer dry periods in between.6
Seasonal precipitation trends are projected to vary significantly, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In some cases, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.6 Climate projections indicate that by mid-century, the number of days per year with a snow cover depth greater than 1 inch is expected to decline by 12 (intermediate emissions) to 15 (very high emissions) days.6
Precipitation changes are projected to vary by region, with the southeastern part of the state expected to see the largest increase in total annual precipitation. Climate projections indicate this region could experience an additional 4.4 inches of annual precipitation compared to historical simulations (1995–2014) by the end of the century (2080-2099; see figure below).
While annual precipitation is projected to increase overall, Minnesota can also expect to see longer dry periods.7 Climate projections suggest that Minnesota could experience faster transitions between wet and dry periods, sometimes referred to as ‘whiplash.’7,8 Regionally, the Midwest is projected to experience the greatest increase in consecutive dry days in the U.S., with durations potentially extending by up to 25% by 2100.5
Figure: Projected change in annual precipitation
Figure: Projected change in the number of days with measurable precipitation
Table: Statewide change in maximum 1-day and 7-day total precipitation in Minnesota
Emissions scenario | Change in maximum 1-day precipitation | Change in maximum 7-day precipitation |
|---|---|---|
Intermediate | +0.5 | +0.7 |
Very high | +0.3 | +0.4 |
Source: Liess, S., et. al., 2023
Climate change and wildfires
While the current and future effects of climate change on wildfires specifically in Minnesota are not yet clear, wind can carry wildfire smoke from regions across the continent, exposing Minnesotans to hazardous pollutants.9 In general, climate change is driving hotter weather and more evaporative demand – a “thirstier” atmosphere — drying up vegetation, intensifying wildfire growth, and extending the wildfire season.10,11 Since 1984, the number of large fires and area burned by wildfires in the United States has doubled12, primarily due to changes in western states, despite no observed shifts in wildfire frequency.12,13 Similar increases in area burned have been observed in Canada.14 While this increase in wildfire area burned is in part driven by factors like historical forest management tactics that favored fire suppression and led to more available fuel for wildfire, climate change is already heavily contributing to increased wildfire growth.12,15 Fire weather days with low relative humidity, high temperatures, and windy conditions have also been increasing, particularly in the western U.S. and parts of eastern Canada.16,17
Explore the pages below to learn more about climate impacts and adaptation strategies for key sectors in Minnesota.
Disclosure
The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota State Climatology Office. Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100.6 This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please visit app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2025 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-0928
Suggested citation
University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership, 2025. Climate Change in Minnesota. Version 2. www.climate.umn.edu/climate-change-in-minnesota
References
1. Minnesota is getting warmer and wetter | Our Minnesota Climate. https://climate.state.mn.us/minnesota-getting-warmer-and-wetter.
2. Liess, S. et al. High-Resolution Climate Projections Over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Earth Space Sci. 9, e2021EA001893 (2022).
3. Climate trends. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/climate_change_info/climate-trends.html.
4. Baker, J. M. et al. Midwest. Fifth National Climate Assessment https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/24/ (2023).
5. Clark, S. & Mosel, J. Climate Change and Drought in Minnesota and the Midwest. https://climate.umn.edu/sites/climate.umn.edu/files/2023-10/Drought%20in%20MN%20-%20V1%20%281%29.pdf (2023).
6. Liess, S. et al. MN CliMAT. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. https://app.climate.umn.edu/?output_type=numDif&scenario=ssp370_2060-2079&model=ensemble&variable=tmax-degF&time_frame=yearly&aoi=p%7EMN_outline%7E0#intro_pane (2025).
7. Future changes in the transitions of monthly‐to‐seasonal precipitation extremes over the Midwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models - Chen - 2023 - International Journal of Climatology - Wiley Online Library. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.7756.
8. Ford, T. W., Chen, L. & Schoof, J. T. Variability and Transitions in Precipitation Extremes in the Midwest United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0216.1 (2021) doi:10.1175/JHM-D-20-0216.1.
9. Estimated Mortality and Morbidity Attributable to Smoke Plumes in the United States: Not Just a Western US Problem - O’Dell - 2021 - GeoHealth - Wiley Online Library. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GH000457.
10. Crimmins, A. R. Fifth National Climate Assessment. Fifth National Climate Assessment https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/ (2023).
11. Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178.
12. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests | PNAS. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1607171113.
13. US EPA, O. Climate Change Indicators: Wildfires. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-wildfires (2016).
14. Hanes, C. C. et al. Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century. Can. J. For. Res. 49, 256–269 (2019).
15. Zhuang, Y., Fu, R., Santer, B. D., Dickinson, R. E. & Hall, A. Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 118, e2111875118 (2021).
16. Wildfire Weather | Climate Central. https://www.climatecentral.org/report/wildfire-weather.
17. Trend analysis of fire season length and extreme fire weather in North America between 1979 and 2015 | International Journal of Wildland Fire | ConnectSci. https://connectsci.au/wf/article-abstract/26/12/1009/107151/Trend-analysis-of-fire-season-length-and-extreme?redirectedFrom=fulltext.