How is climate change affecting agriculture in Minnesota?
Climate change is changing agricultural production by altering growing zones and disrupting seasonal patterns.1 Some of these changes present opportunities, such as new markets to access, while others increase risks to production, such as planting delays. Climate change will also change where crops can be grown in the state - for example, crop models indicate that corn and soybean production will expand relative to other areas of the state.2,3
Temperature
Since the beginning of the 20th century, Minnesota’s growing season has extended by more than two weeks.4 While this shift opens opportunities for earlier planting, alternative crop varieties, and expanded use of cover crops, it also introduces challenges like expanded pest pressure.5,6 Separately, prolonged summer heat and more frequent days above 86°F can stress crops, livestock, and farmworkers.3 Warming temperatures also elevate rates of evapotranspiration — the process of water movement from land to the atmosphere by evaporation and by transpiration from plants1 — which can in turn increase the risk of rapid-onset droughts6 Additionally, milder winters raise the risk of injury and lack of requisite chilling hours for fruit crops5 and pose risks to perennial forage crops.1
Precipitation
Precipitation across Minnesota is expected to become more intense, with more rainfall occurring in a single event and longer dry periods in between. Seasonal precipitation trends are projected to vary significantly, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In some cases, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.7 These changes bring greater risks of soil saturation, ponding, and planting delays during spring, which can damage young crops and reduce available workdays.6 Wetter pastures can increase livestock disease risk, while heightened spring moisture also promotes the spread of pests and crop diseases.5 At the same time, decreased summer rainfall, combined with higher evapotranspiration, increase the risk of drought and put fresh market vegetables to grains at risk.1
References
1. Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities. https://nca2023-globalchange.govarchive.us/chapter/11/.
2. Keeler, B. L. et al. Climate Change Projections for Improved Management of Infrastructure, Industry, and Water Resources in Minnesota. https://www.lccmr.mn.gov/projects/2015/finals/2015_04a_climate_report.pdf.
3. Climate change will slow U.S. crop yield growth by 2030 | EDF. https://www.edf.org/climate-change-will-slow-us-crop-yield-growth-2030 (2022).
4. US EPA, O. Climate Change Indicators: Length of Growing Season. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-length-growing-season (2016).
5. Srivastava, A., Grotjahn, R. & Ullrich, P. A. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions. Weather Clim. Extrem. 29, 100268 (2020).
6. Roop, H. A. et al. Climate Change Impacts on Minnesota Agriculture. (2024).
7. Liess, S. et al. MN CliMAT. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. https://app.climate.umn.edu/?output_type=numDif&scenario=ssp370_2060-2079&model=ensemble&variable=tmax-degF&time_frame=yearly&aoi=p%7EMN_outline%7E0#intro_pane (2025).