Working Toward Resilience in Agriculture

Assisting the agriculture industry in adapting to future climate conditions.

How is climate change affecting agriculture in Minnesota? 

Climate change is increasing risks to agricultural production by altering growing zones, shortening or shifting growing seasons, and disrupting seasonal patterns1. Although Minnesota’s northern counties may benefit modestly from moderate changes, much of the state faces increasing climate risks2. 

Expand all

Temperature

Since the beginning of the 20th century, Minnesota’s growing season has extended by about two weeks3. While this shift opens opportunities for earlier planting, alternative crop varieties, and expanded use of cover crops, it also introduces challenges like expanded pest pressure4, 5. Separately, prolonged summer heat and more frequent days above 86°F can stress crops, livestock, and farmworkers2. Warming temperatures also elevate rates of evapotranspiration — the process of water movement from land to the atmosphere by evaporation and by transpiration from plants1 — which can in turn increase the risk of rapid-onset droughts5. Additionally, milder winters raise the risk of injury and lack of requisite chilling hours for fruit crops5 and pose risks to perennial forage crops1.

Precipitation

The timing and intensity of precipitation in Minnesota is shifting. The state is projected to experience wetter springs and drier summers, with May becoming wetter and August increasingly dry (see our state climate summary for more detailed information). Projections for July are more variable depending on specific regions and emissions scenarios. These changes bring greater risks of soil saturation, ponding, and planting delays during spring, which can damage young crops and reduce available workdays5. Wetter pastures can increase livestock disease risk, while heightened spring moisture also promotes the spread of pests and crop diseases4. At the same time, decreased summer rainfall, combined with higher evapotranspiration, increase the risk of drought and put fresh market vegetables to grains at risk6. Minnesota’s agricultural production is intimately tied to weather and climate, and is on the front lines of both short and long-term changes in temperature and precipitation. 

Tools and Resources

Resilient Farm Planner

Regional Climate Summaries for Minnesota 

USDA Climate Hubs: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Midwest Agriculture 

Develop a heat and air quality safety plan for your farm workers (Speciality Crop Producers)

Minnesota Climate Mapping and Analysis Tool (MN CliMAT)

Develop a heat and air quality safety plan for your farm workers

Michigan State University Extension: Climate Ready Farm Assessment

Our Work

Minnesota Climate-Smart Agriculture Extension program

Climate Analogs: Climate Analogs: Building the climate adaptation network
 

Expand all

References

  1. Bolster, C.H. et. al. 2023: Ch. 11. Agriculture, Food Systems, and Rural Communities. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R. et. al. (Eds.) U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH11 
  2. Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), 2022. Climate Impacts on Midwest Crop Yields. http://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/2022-10/climate-impacts-midwest-crop-yields.pdf 
  3. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2016. What Climate Change Means for Minnesota. https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/climate-change-mn.pdf
  4. Srivastava, A., Grotjahn, R., & Ullrich, P.A., 2020. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions. Weather and Climate Extremes, 29 (100268). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2020.100268  
  5. Roop, H. A. et. al. 2024. Climate Change Impacts on Minnesota Agriculture. United States Department of Agriculture Climate Hubs, University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership, and Great Lakes Research Integrated Science Assessment