Climate Change in Minnesota

Between 1895 and 2024, the average annual temperature in Minnesota has increased by 3.2°F.  This increase in accumulated heat is driving changes in our seasonal high and low temperatures, decreasing the length of snow cover, increasing heavy rain events, and altering ecosystems across Minnesota. Warming has also accelerated in recent years³.

Most of the warming since 1985 has been concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with the state’s average winter temperatures increasing by 5.4°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 6.8°F. Average daily low temperatures have increased at more than twice the rate of the average daily high temperatures. In recent decades, winter warming has also accelerated significantly, with average daily low temperatures in winter rising over 15 times faster than summer high temperatures between 1970 and 2024⁴. 

Minnesota also experienced, on average, an increase of 3.5 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2024. The largest single rain event has grown by 13%¹, and the state is now experiencing more frequent and intense heavy rainfall events than ever recorded. At the same time, Minnesota has experienced a rise in rapid transitions between wet and dry periods, resulting in flash drought conditions that increase moisture stress on both agricultural crops and native vegetation⁵.

Projected changes in temperature

Future climate projections indicate Minnesota’s average temperatures will continue to rise, accompanied by increased humidity (making it feel even warmer) and greater seasonal variability.

By mid-century (2040-2059), the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. 

Similarly to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 6°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 4.9°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

Warming could fuel significant shifts in the state’s seasonal extremes. The number of days per year with minimum temperatures below freezing (32°F) could decline by nearly a month by mid-century (2040-2059), and by two months by the end of the century (2080-2099). Meanwhile, temperatures exceeding 100°F are expected to increase significantly by the end of the century, with the state projected to experience 20 days per year above 100°F under a very high emissions scenarios. 

Projected changes in precipitation

Precipitation patterns across Minnesota are expected to become more intense, with more rainfall occurring in a single event and longer dry periods in between. 

Seasonal precipitation trends are projected to vary significantly, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In some cases, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall. Additionally, due to warming temperatures, by mid-century, the number of days per year with snow cover depth greater than 1 inch is expected to decline by 12 (intermediate emissions) to 15 (very high emissions) days.

Precipitation changes are expected to vary by region, with the southeastern part of the state expected to see the largest increase — an additional 4.4 inches of annual precipitation compared to historical simulations (1995–2014) by the end of the century (see figure below). 

Future droughts in Minnesota are expected to become more severe due to rising temperatures accelerating soil moisture loss. Regionally, the Midwest is projected to experience the greatest increase in consecutive dry days in the U.S., with durations potentially extending by up to 25% by 2100⁵.