Climate change in East Central Minnesota

Changes we've already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in East Central Minnesota has increased by 3.5°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 5.6°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 6.7°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 4.1 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, annual average daily maximum temperature in East Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.4°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.1°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario.

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 6.1°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 4.8°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 22-25 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in East Central Minnesota in a given year.

Projected changes in precipitation

Average annual precipitation in East Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1.4 inches (4.3%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. 

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

Key climate impacts for East Central Minnesota

Water Resources

• As more rain falls in a shorter period of time, the risk of flooding increases. Because of the higher proportion of paved surfaces in urban areas, floods are particularly hazardous — leading to transportation disruptions and overwhelming aging stormwater-sewer systems [2,3].
• Higher summertime temperatures and the associated risk of summertime drought [4] increase the likelihood that water demand will outpace supply, particularly in heavily populated areas.  

Agriculture

• Crop models suggest that corn and soybean yields decline at sustained temperatures above 86°F [5].
• Increased spring precipitation is expected to result in greater pest and disease transmission for a variety of crops and farm animals [6], and decreased summer precipitation results in potential declines for crops ranging from fresh market vegetables to grains [7].

Tribal Lifeways

• Culturally important species are threatened by rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. For example, cold-water fish like walleye — vital to fisheries such as Mille Lacs — face habitat loss [8].
• Wild rice harvests may decline because of increasing spring precipitation, along with less snowfall in the winter [8].

Tourism & Recreation

• Increasing temperatures in the winter months could prevent lake ice formation [9, 6] and reduce snowpack, creating unsuitable conditions for popular activities such as ice fishing, skiing and snowmobiling.
• Warmer surface waters increase the risk of harmful algal blooms [10], which are detrimental to human health and make lakes unsuitable for swimming and water sports.

Human Health

• Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into a medical emergency [12]. Urban areas can trap heat — hot spots have been measured up to 20°F warmer than surrounding areas [13]. Those who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [14, 15].
•  Warming temperatures will expand the habitat and lifecycle for carriers of vector-borne diseases, such as the black-legged tick (Lyme Disease) [16, 17] — even in urban areas.