WeatherTalk Blog

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE December off to a cold and windy start:

So far everyday in December has brought colder than normal temperatures to Minnesota, Climate observers in 20 counties have already reported some subzero low temperatures. Through the first 5 days of the month temperatures are averaging 3 to 6 degrees F cooler than normal around the state.

Snowfall has occurred in light amounts in most areas of the state, but generally less than 1 inch. Along the north shore areas near Grand Marais, some observers have reported 4 to 6 inches of snowfall so far this month. In the absence of significant snow cover, soils have frozen down to a depth of 6 inches or more in many areas of the state.

The biggest weather event of the first week of December was the strong low pressure system that brought freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the state on Wednesday, December 4th. Winds were exceptionally strong for most of the day and combined with brief snow squalls this made visibility quite difficult for driving sometimes. Wind Chill values went down to -20°F or colder around Warroad, Mahnomen, and Thief River Falls. These were some of the coldest readings so far this month. Many areas of the state reported wind gusts over 50 mph, and Rochester airport reported a wind gust of 63 mph. The high winds produced large waves on Lake Superior, ranging from 8 to 12 feet.

Temperatures are expected to moderate and rise above normal this weekend, then dip below normal next week, but go above normal again next weekend, a bit of a rollercoaster. There is no indication yet of major snowstorms heading our way.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The Weather Underground web site produced a good summary about the lake effect snowfalls observed so far this month around the Great Lakes area. Many areas of Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and Michigan reported 40 to 60 inches of snowfall this week. Like Minnesota, many climate observers also reported wind gusts of 40 mph to 50 mph making visibility near zero at times.

A recent paper in Global Change Biology documents a genomic break through in potatoes. Scientists engineered an alternative photorespiratory pathway (AP3) in tubers that enhanced their ability to produce abundant yields even when heat waves brought stress during the growing season to other crops. This may produce a pathway to more effectively engineer crops to be more resilient and produce sustaining yield levels even when climate change brings about more frequent and perhaps longer duration growing season heat waves.

MPR listener question:

The wind was so strong on Wednesday this week that it was hard to walk the dog in our neighborhood park here in the Twin Cities. I heard on the radio that wind gusts reached 50 mph here. How often does this happen in December!

Answer:

It is somewhat unusual to have wind gusts over 50 mph in December. The maximum I saw for Wednesday this week here in the Twin Cities was 53 mph around 3pm. The last time wind gusts exceeded 50 mph during December in the Twin Cities was December 16 of 2021 when gusts reached 58 mph (also that day there were tornadoes in southern MN). Before that, the last episode of extremely strong December winds was December 12,2004 when wind gusts reached 52 mph. So this does happen, but not very often, perhaps once a decade.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 6th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 19 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 6th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of -2 degrees F in 1972; lowest daily minimum temperature of -19 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 37 degrees F in 1951, and record precipitation of 0.53 inches in 1935. Record snowfall is 4.4 inches in 1969.

Average dew point for December 6th is 13°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 42°F in 1951 and the minimum dew point on this date is -28 degrees F in 1972.

All-time state records for December 6th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 73 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County), Marshall (Lyon County) and Milan (Chippewa County) in 1939. The state record low temperature for this date is -41 degrees F at Kelliher (Beltrami County) in 2013. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.60 inches at Austin (Mower County) in 1992. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 23.2 inches at Duluth (St Louis County) in 1950.

Past Weather:

With abundant snow on the ground, arctic-like temperatures were reported around Minnesota on December 6 of 1873. Most areas reported subzero morning lows, and daytime high temperatures only reached single digits and teens. Many areas of central and northern Minnesota reported temperatures from -30° to -40°F.

Many areas of the state reported afternoon temperatures in the 60s and 70s F on December 6 of 1939. Five western counties enjoyed sunny skies and temperatures of 70°F and some citizens were observed taking their lunch outside.

A slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snowfall to many parts of Minnesota over December 5-7 of 1950. Many areas reported 8 to 16 inches of snow. Cloquet reported over 2 feet of snow, while the Duluth area received over 33 inches, where schools were closed.

Outlook:

Significant warming trend over the weekend will bring above normal temperatures under mostly sunny skies. Chance of snow late in the weekend, mostly in northern areas. Cooler than normal again for Monday through Thursday of next week, then a return of a warming trend for the following weekend.

Preliminary Climate Summary for November 2024:For the month of November most Minnesota climate stations will report an average monthly temperature that is 4°F to 6°F above normal. Although the month closed with a string of days that brought below normal temperatures, nearly three-fourths of all days during November brought warmer than normal temperatures. Extremes for the month were 79°F at Preston (Fillmore County) and -10 degrees F at Detroit Lakes (Becker County) on November 30. Within the state climate station network, there were 7 daily record high maximum temperature records set or tied during the month, and 37 daily record warm minimum temperatures set. On a statewide basis this November will likely fall among the warmest 11 Novembers in state history. And this November when combined with the warmest September in state history and the 6th warmest October in state history will produce the warmest autumn season in state history on a statewide basis, almost 7 degrees F above normal, pretty remarkable. Only towards the end of the month were some area lakes beginning to show some very thin ice cover.

The month of November was wetter than normal for most places in the state, with a statewide average precipitation of just over 2.50 inches. That ranks as the 11th wettest November in state history. Many eastern Minnesota climate stations reported over 4 inches of precipitation during the month, and a few northeastern and southeaster stations reported over 5 inches. Within the state climate station network, there were 88 daily precipitation records set, including several reports of over 1.50 inches. Snowfall was scarce during the month, with some places reporting 1 to 3 inches. A few north shore locations along Lake Superior reported over 6 inches for the month.

The drought situation across Minnesota improved significantly over the month of November. The month began with over 90 percent of the state landscape in at least Moderate Drought. By the end of the month that number was down to 57 percent, and the area designated to be in Severed Drought was down to 9 percent (from over 50 percent earlier in the month). Soils were beginning to freeze up over the last few days of the month, down to a depth of 3-4 inches.

About one-third of the days in November brought wind gusts over 30 mph. Over two-thirds of the days brought dominant cloudiness or fog was present. There were only 4-5 sunny days.

Despite the widespread drought of the autumn season the first 11 months of 2024 will rank as the 14th wettest in state history. The first 11 months of this year rival the year 2012 for the warmest in state history.

Minnesota Climate Adaptation Awards Nominations Solicited: The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program (MCAP) has put out a call for nominations for the 2025 Climate Adaptation Awards. These awards have been presented annually since 2014 and recognize exceptional achievements in climate resilience or climate justice through the development, advancement, or implementation of climate adaptation strategies. We know that celebrating success and showcasing the actions and leadership of our peers can help to accelerate adaptation across Minnesota, and beyond. Recipients have developed cutting-edge adaptation plans for their communities, supported project-specific implementation of adaptation investments, and served as leaders championing adaptation across their organizations. Awards are presented in five categories. Please review the procedures for the awards nominations at the MCAP web site and consider nominating worthy individuals or organizations by December 2nd.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: The BBC reported that on Wednesday, November 27 Seoul, South Korea reported its largest ever November snowfall with 6.3 inches, bringing traffic to a standstill in many areas and causing flight cancellations at the airport. It was a sharp turn in the weather from what had otherwise been a fairly mild November.

The Weather Underground web site posted a summary and synopsis of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season which just ended. There were 18 named storms this year, and catastrophic consequences across many parts of Florida and North Carolina.
MPR listener question: Now that we have seen a little bit of snow this month, we are wondering what are the extreme snowfall records for the month of December (we are hoping it is a snowy month)?
Answer: The snowiest Decembers occurred in 2013, 2021, and 2022 when parts of the north shore along Lake Superior reported over 55 inches for the month. The record highest amount for the Twin Cities is 33.6 inches in December of 2010.
Twin Cities Almanac for November 29th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 35 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 22 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 29th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 62 degrees F in 1998; lowest daily maximum temperature of -4 degrees F in 1875; lowest daily minimum temperature of -25°F in 1875; highest daily minimum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1998, and record precipitation of 1.38 inches in 1991. Record snowfall is 12.6 inches in 1991.

Average dew point for November 29th is 18°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 57°F in 1998 and the minimum dew point on this date is -24 degrees F in 1958.
All-time state records for November 29th: The state record high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1998. The state record low temperature for this date is -39 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1896. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.85 inches at Farmington (Dakota County) in 1934. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 16.0 inches at Cambridge (Isanti County) in 1991.
Past Weather: Easily the coldest November 29 in state history was in 1896, when everywhere in the state reported subzero morning low temperatures, including several readings of -30°F or colder in northern counties. The daily high temperature at Crookston was only -15°F.

The 4th major snowstorm of the month crossed Minnesota over November 29-30 of 1991. Many areas of southern and central Minnesota reported 5 to 10 inches of snowfall, and a few locations reported over 1 foot. This last snowstorm of the month brought record-setting monthly total snowfall to many counties. Several climate stations reported over 40 inches of snowfall that month, and some areas along the Lake Superior highlands reported over 50 inches.

November 29 of 1998 was by far the warmest in state history. With little or no snow cover, afternoon temperatures climbed into the 50s and 60s F under sunny skies. In the southern half of Minnesota, golf courses were open for business.
Outlook: Cooler than normal over the weekend and much of next week. Some overnight lows will be in single digits. Sunny skies in southern areas and more clouds in the north, with a chance for snow flurries in the north counties Sunday and Monday nights. Warmer temperatures towards the end of next week, with some chances for snow.

Wetter Than Normal November Continues:The pattern of above normal precipitation continued again over this past week, as many climate observers reported between 1 and 2 inches, and in some northeastern counties there were reports of over 2 inches. In addition, on Wednesday and Thursday of this week many observers reported from 0.5 inches to 3 inches of snowfall.

A large number of climate stations have now reported over 3 inches of rainfall for the month of November so far. Along the north shore highlands above Lake Superior, observers at Wolf Ridge ELC and Sliver Bay have reported over 5 inches, near record-setting November amounts for them. The current statewide average of 2.35 inches of precipitation for this month ranks as the 14th wettest November in state history and will only be added to over the next 8 days. The precipitation amounts so far helped the drought situation in the state as the area of the Minnesota landscape in Severe Drought declined by 29 percent from last week.

Despite the significant cool-down in temperatures this week, most climate stations continue to report an average monthly temperature that is from 6°F to 9°F above normal. Temperatures are forecast to run a little bit cooler than normal for the balance of November. Soil temperatures at the 4 inch depth remain mostly in the upper 30sd to low 40s F.

Minnesota Climate Adaptation Awards Nominations Solicited:
The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program (MCAP) has put out a call for nominations for the 2025 Climate Adaptation Awards. These awards have been presented annually since 2014 and recognize exceptional achievements in climate resilience or climate justice through the development, advancement, or implementation of climate adaptation strategies. We know that celebrating success and showcasing the actions and leadership of our peers can help to accelerate adaptation across Minnesota, and beyond. Recipients have developed cutting-edge adaptation plans for their communities, supported project-specific implementation of adaptation investments, and served as leaders championing adaptation across their organizations. Awards are presented in five categories. Please review the procedures for the awards nominations at the MCAP web site and consider nominating worthy individuals or organizations by December 2nd.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: The new seasonal weather outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center release this week favor a slightly cooler than normal December-February period across the western half of Minnesota, and equal chances for cooler or warmer than normal conditions in eastern Minnesota. The outlook also favors a wetter than normal winter season for most of Minnesota, with equal chances for wetter or drier than normal in the western counties.

Speaking of the Winter Outlook, there is an informative article this week by Jonathan Erdman of the Weather Underground about how to plan your winter travel using the seasonal outlooks. He talks about factoring in your favorite outdoor activities with the regional weather features that are expected to be above or below normal, such as snowfall for skiing, or taking advantage of low air fares if you are going somewhere expected to be rainy, but your planned activities will all be indoors anyway.

In this week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin there is a comprehensive article about the changing climate of the Arctic. Accelerated climate change is evident in the loss of both sea ice and permafrost, changing both the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. It is speculated that without drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, Arctic sea ice may be all but absent in the late summer season by 2080.
A Salute to Luke Howard, one of the Fathers of Meteorology This name is still not known well outside meteorological circles. Luke Howard was an English chemist (pharmacist) who proposed in 1803 a system of cloud classification based on his own observations and sketches. This classification system is for the most part still used today, over 200 years later!

Using the botanical Linnean conventions (after Linnaeus the Swedish naturalist of the 18th century) to classify his observations of the "face of the sky" based on genera, species and varieties (or classes, orders, and suborders), Howard published his "Essay on the Modification of Clouds" in 1804. His scheme for classifying clouds was based on their appearance and the process of formation. There were three distinct types all derived from Latin words: cirrus (wispy hair or thread-like high clouds); cumulus (a heap or puffy cloud); and stratus (spreaded or blanket-like cloud). He also employed a Latin derived word for the rain cloud, nimbus. There were additional combination forms which he proposed as well including cirrocumulus, cirrostratus, and cumulostratus.

With some modifications, Howard's scheme of cloud classification was adopted as a standard in 1891 by the International Meteorological Organization, a non-governmental scientific group. Later, during the 1950s with some additional modification the government-based World Meteorological Organization adopted it as a standard for making cloud observations.

Howard was a chemist, a naturalist, an artist, and a devout Christian. Despite being one of the most respected scientists of his time, he maintained a humble attitude which is depicted

in his writings. He later authored "The Climate of London," and the first meteorological text book entitled "Seven Lectures in Meteorology." But he is best remembered for his studies of clouds. It has been speculated by historians, that his contemporary, the poet Percy Shelley, wrote "The Ode to the West Wind" (1819) and "The Cloud" (1820) based on an understanding of the water cycle obtained through reading Howard's works. Luke Howard is regarded as “the father of the clouds” by some weather historians.
MPR listener question: You spoke last week on Morning Edition about entering the peak season for freezing rain, as well as for general cloudiness. Does that mean we typically record the least number of hours of sunshine this time of year?
Answer Emphatically, YES. Our exposure to sunlight is at a minimum in November and December because of both the shorter days as well as persistent cloudiness. If we examine the historical climate data for the Twin Cities for example, it shows on an average of 39 percent possible sunshine in November and 42 percent in December. These are by far the lowest numbers of the year. Conversely, during summer season, the months of July and August show average percent possible sunshine to be 72 percent and 69 percent, respectively. So when the sun is out during November and December, most Minnesota citizens want to take advantage to be outside, at least for a little while.

BTW: cloud spotting and cloud gazing are not typical pastimes in November and December despite the abundance of clouds. This I because stratus or low layers of cloud are the most common types in these months, so it is almost like being covered all the time by a sheet or thin blanket. The more intriguing and artistic cloud forms seen in other times of the year, are all but absent.
Twin Cities Almanac for November 22nd: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 22nd:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1921; lowest daily minimum temperature of -6°F in 1880; highest daily minimum temperature of 45 degrees F in 2009, and record precipitation of 0.74 inches in 2016. Record snowfall is 5.5 inches in 1898.

Average dew point for November 22nd is 29°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 53°F in 1963 and the minimum dew point on this date is -7 degrees F in 1970.
All-time state records for November 22nd: The state record high temperature for this date is 72 degrees F at Preston (Fillmore County) in 1990 and at St James (Watonwan County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -26 degrees F at Ada (Clay County) and at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1896. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.18 inches at Willow River (Pine County) in 1898. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 13.0 inches at Pokegama Dam (Itascca County) in 1898.
Past Weather: By far the coldest November 22nd was in 1896 when most climate stations in Minnesota reported morning temperatures that were subzero. There was also snow on the ground in most places, so even the daytime high temperatures were well below normal. The afternoon high temperature at Alexandria (Douglas County) only reached 8°F.

A fast-moving winter storm dumped 4 to 8 inches of snowfall across southern and central Minnesota on November 22 of 1898, just 2 days before Thanksgiving. Some central Minnesota communities reported over 10 inches.

The warmest November 22 in state history was in 1990. Many southern and western Minnesota communities saw afternoon temperatures reach the 50s and 60s F. Citizens in Goodhue, Mower, Fillmore, and Winona Counties enjoyed sunny skies and temperatures of 70° or greater. Since it was Thanksgiving Day, some families ate their turkey dinner outside.
Outlook:
It will be a mostly cloudy weekend with near normal temperatures and a chance for snow in northern areas later on Sunday and into Monday. Temperatures will generally run cooler than normal next week with a chance for snow by Wednesday and Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) in some areas.

Mid-November Weather Update:Most climate stations throughout Minnesota are reporting average temperatures for the month so far that range from 6°F to 8°F above normal. This follows the trend of warmer than normal weather established in both September and October. There have been several days that have brought maximum temperatures of 50°F or above, and a day or two of 60°F readings in some places.

This week brought more significant rainfall to the state. At mid-month, most Minnesota climate stations are reporting near normal or above normal precipitation so far this month. A number of climate stations in eastern counties have reported over 2 inches. Drought conditions continue, but eased up slightly as those areas of the state in at least Moderate Drought (84 percent) declined by 5 percentage points to 79 percent.

The persistent strong winds of November have yet to materialize except for Veterans Days (November 11) when wind gusts exceeded 40 mph across much of central and northern Minnesota. Some of the maximum winds that day:

55 mph at Grand Marais
52 mph at Moorhead
51 mph at Duluth and Hibbing
48 mph at International Falls
47 mph at Brainerd
45 mph at Park Rapids

Some of these strong winds produced large waves on Lake Superior. Stronger winds are expected to be more prevalent the second half of November.

Comment on the Climatology of Freezing Rain: I want to comment on a couple of characteristics regarding this type of storm: the frequency of occurrence and the formation process.

Mid-November to late December is the period of time when we most frequently record freezing rainfall in Minnesota. Historically, the frequency of occurrence for freezing rain during this period is nearly equal to the total frequency of these events observed for the balance of the calendar year. In other words, about half of the annual observations of freezing rain fall within this period.

The process which produces freezing rain is almost always overrunning, that is warm, moist air running over the top of cold air near the surface. Water droplets formed in relatively warmer clouds aloft become supercooled falling through colder and colder layers toward the ground. When these droplets hit surfaces (pavement, trees, wires, etc) which are at subfreezing temperatures, they freeze, forming a glaze.
Minnesota Climate Adaptation Awards Nominations Solicited: The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program (MCAP) has put out a call for nominations for the 2025 Climate Adaptation Awards. These awards have been presented annually since 2014 and recognize exceptional achievements in climate resilience or climate justice through the development, advancement, or implementation of climate adaptation strategies. We know that celebrating success and showcasing the actions and leadership of our peers can help to accelerate adaptation across Minnesota, and beyond. Recipients have developed cutting-edge adaptation plans for their communities, supported project-specific implementation of adaptation investments, and served as leaders championing adaptation across their organizations. Awards are presented in five categories. Please review the procedures for the awards nominations at the MCAP web site and consider nominating worthy individuals or organizations by December 2nd.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: The BBC reported this week that Typhoon Usagi brought winds from 109 mph to over 140 mph to the far northeastern Philippines on Thursday this week. Storm surge was up to 3 meters with rainfall amounts exceeding 8 inches in some areas. The Western Pacific Ocean Basin has been active with tropical storms over the past two weeks.

NOAA reported this week that October of 2024 was the 2nd warmest in history globally going back 175 years. This adds to the unusually warm global climate momentum of 2024 so far, and NOAA projects that the year will likely finish as the warmest of record. Minnesota is also on pace to record one of its warmest years in history during 2024.
MPR listener question: You reminded us recently that November is typically the cloudiest month of the year in Minnesota. Has there ever been a November when all of the days were cloudy?
Answer Using the long-term Twin Cities climate record, I cannot find such a November. Perhaps one of cloudiest Novembers in history was in 1972 when 25 of the 30 days brought complete cloudiness or fog, 4 days were partly cloudy, and only one day was sunny. This November so far has brought 5 completely cloudy days, and 6 partly cloudy days to the Twin Cities.
Twin Cities Almanac for November 15th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 42 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 15th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 69 degrees F in 1953; lowest daily maximum temperature of 13 degrees F in 1932; lowest daily minimum temperature of 1°F in 1940; highest daily minimum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1930, and record precipitation of 1.58 inches in 1996. Record snowfall is 5.1 inches in 1956.

Average dew point for November 15th is 29°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 2001 and the minimum dew point on this date is 0 degrees F in 1940.

All-time state records for November 15th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1953. The state record low temperature for this date is -36 degrees F at Angus (Polk County) in 1911. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.68 inches at Stillwater (Washington County) in 1944. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 18.5 inches at Hovland (Cook County) in 2022.

Past Weather: By far the coldest November 15 in Minnesota history was in 1911, when 30 counties reported subzero morning low temperatures, including a reading of -36°F at Angus (Polk County). With snow on the ground, the daily high temperature only reached -2°F at Hallock in northwestern Minnesota (Kittson County)

A winter storm brought 6 to 12 inches of snowfall to central and northern Minnesota on Sunday, November 15 of 1953. Many church services were cancelled as travel became quite difficult. It was by far the largest snowfall of an otherwise dry November.

Golf courses were open on November 15 of 1973 as sunny skies prevailed and temperatures rose into the 60s and 70s F across much of the state of Minnesota. After a morning low temperature below freezing, citizens of Canby enjoyed lunch outside in 75°F weather conditions.
Outlook: Sunny, breezy, and warm over the weekend with above normal temperatures. Chance for rain in northern areas late on Saturday and into Sunday. Declining temperatures on Monday and Tuesday next week with chances for rain. Even colder by Wednesday and Thursday with some chance for snow in most places. Beginning on Wednesday a period of cooler than normal temperatures will settle in.

Wet Start to November:
Rainfall was certainly abundant over the first six days of November with many climate stations reporting measurable amounts on at least four days. Total rainfalls between 1 and 1.5 inches were fairly common across the state. Normal monthly precipitation for November typically ranges from 0.75 inches in the northwest to 1.75 inches in the southeast.

There have been a handful of record-setting daily rainfalls, including 1.73 inches at Delano (Wright County) on November 1st, and 1.05 inches at Caledonia (Houston County) on November 3rd. In fact, portions of Houston and Fillmore Counties in southeastern Minnesota have reported over 2 inches of rain so far this month. Their normal precipitation for the entire month is around 1.85 inches, so they have already had a wet month of November.

More significant precipitation is expected over much of the state next week as well, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor a wetter than normal and warmer than normal month of November for most of the state. In this context, we might expect to see continued improvement in the drought situation across Minnesota as we head for the first winter month of December. Soil temperatures around Minnesota remain in the 40s F and so will not freeze up soon. Thus, the soils will continue to absorb nearly all the precipitation that occurs. The drought situation for Minnesota improved slightly this week (Moderate Drought area down from 91% to 84%, Severe Drought area down from 51% to 46%), and may improve slightly again next week with rains expected this weekend.

Minnesota Climate Adaptation Awards Nominations Solicited: The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program (MCAP) has put out a call for nominations for the 2025 Climate Adaptation Awards. These awards have been presented annually since 2014 and recognize exceptional achievements in climate resilience or climate justice through the development, advancement, or implementation of climate adaptation strategies. We know that celebrating success and showcasing the actions and leadership of our peers can help to accelerate adaptation across Minnesota, and beyond. Recipients have developed cutting-edge adaptation plans for their communities, supported project-specific implementation of adaptation investments, and served as leaders championing adaptation across their organizations. Awards are presented in five categories. Please review the procedures for the awards nominations at the MCAP web site and consider nominating worthy individuals or organizations by December 2nd.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: The BBC reported this week that 2024 remains on a pace to set a new global temperature record for the warmest year. “Global average temperatures across the year are on track to end up more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, which would make 2024 the first calendar year to breach this symbolic mark”, according to the European climate service.

The Weather Underground featured an article about the changes in the National Weather Service Cold Weather Warnings and Advisories this winter. They will no longer be issuing Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories, but they will be called Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories. The criteria applied to Minnesota are still based on expect Wind Chill Values. For the Twin Cities Metro Area the Extreme Cold Warning Criteria will be an expected Wind Chill of -35°F or colder, and for a Cold Weather Advisory it will be -25°F or colder. For greater Minnesota, the Extreme Cold Warning Criteria will be -40°F or colder, and for the Cold Weather Advisory it will be -30°F.

A recent article from Science Advances documents how droughts in the western USA since the year 2000 have been primarily driven by high evaporative demand rather than precipitation deficits. The higher evaporative demand is from climate change inflating the seasonal temperatures. They conclude that “the unprecedented 2020–2022 WUS drought exemplifies this shift in drought ……., with high evaporative demand accounting for 61% of its severity, compared to 39% from precipitation deficit.”
MPR listener question: You have often mentioned that November is the month with the most cloud cover in Minnesota. Does that also lead to a smaller difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures?
Answer: Historically speaking, there are more days with cloud cover during November than any other month. This condition tends to reduce heating of the air near the ground during the day and also prevents too much heat loss at night. The daily range of temperature, called diurnal fluctuation by climatologists, is from 20 to 30 F degrees much of the year in Minnesota. But in November it is typically only 14 to 16 degrees F. This is mostly due to increased cloud cover, but it is also due to the combined effects of shorter daylength, declining sun angle, increased atmospheric humidity, and generally greater wind speeds (keeping the air mixed).

In fact, the average difference between the overnight lows and daytime high temperatures so far this month is only about 11 degrees F.in the Twin Cities. On November 3rd (Sunday) the daily temperature spread was only 3 degrees F (high of 49°F, low of 36°F). These kinds of conditions tend to aggravate those who suffer from "seasonal affected disorder" (SAD) which is sometimes treated with light therapy.
Twin Cities Almanac for November 8th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 31 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 8th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 77 degrees F in 1999; lowest daily maximum temperature of 25 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily minimum temperature of 1°F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 54 degrees F in 2020, and record precipitation of 1.51 inches in 1932. Record snowfall is 8.5 inches in 1943.

Average dew point for November 8th is 28°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 1977 and the minimum dew point on this date is -3 degrees F in 1991.

All-time state records for November 8th: The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at New Ulm 2S (Brown County) in 2006. The state record low temperature for this date is -17 degrees F at St Peter (Nicollet County) in 1991. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.45 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 1945. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 16.0 inches at Vesta (Redwood County) in 1943.
Past Weather: A slow=moving winter storm brought a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to many parts of Minnesota over November 7-8 in 1943. Many observers reported 7 to 15 inches of snow, while Redwood Falls and Marshall reported over 20 inches. Ice coated powerlines collapsed in some rural areas.

By far the coldest November 8 in state history was in 1991 when with abundant snow on the ground, most climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the single digits. Observers in over 50 counties reported subzero temperatures readings. The daytime high temperature at Grand Portage only reached 10°F that day.

The warmest ever November 8th occurred in 1999. Most climate stations reported afternoon high temperatures in the 70s F. It was 72°F as far north as International Falls, and in six counties the temperature reached 80°F or higher under bright, sunny skies.

Outlook: Cloudy over the weekend with a chance for showers later on Saturday and into Sunday. Drier on Monday, but then a chance for showers returning for late Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures will generally track warmer than normal throughout the period.

Climate Summary for October:Following the pattern of September, temperatures averaged well above normal in October. Most climate stations reported a mean monthly temperature that was 4°F to 6°F above normal, with the most significant departures from normal in the western and southern counties. Some areas of the state were as much as 8°F warmer than normal, and many central and southern counties reported either their 4th or 5th warmest October in history, with several days when the afternoon high temperature reached 80°F or greater. Statewide it appears October of 2024 will be the 6th warmest in history. Extremes across the state ranged from 88°F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) on October 10th to just 15°F at Brimson (St Louis County) on the 17th.

During the month, over 90 daily record high temperatures were reported from the Minnesota climate station network, and over 45 record daily warm minimum temperatures were reported. October 29 (Tuesday) of this week alone, brought over two dozen new daily maximum temperature or warm minimum records to the Minnesota climate station network, including many afternoon readings of 80°F or higher. Because of the warm temperatures and prevalent dry conditions in most areas of the state there were several days during October when the National Weather Service issued Red Flag Warnings.

In terms of precipitation, most areas of the state were drier than normal during the month, with fewer than normal rainy days. Only five daily record rainfall amounts were reported from the state climate network. Two of the most prominent were 2.99 inches at Red Lake Falls (Red Lake County) on October 22nd, and 1.20 inches at Tower (St Louis County) on October 13th.

Most climate stations reported from 1 to 2 inches of rainfall for the month. Some parts of western and southern Minnesota reported less than 1 inch. For many areas of the state the last day of the month (Oct 31) brought the most moisture, with many rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 inches to 1.5 inches. A few long-term climate stations reported new record amounts of precipitation on October 31st including:

1.26 inches at MSP
1.40 inches at Hokah Houston County)
1.40 inches at La Crescent Dam (Winona County)
0.93 inches at Windom (Cottonwood County)

In addition, a number of climate stations reported snowfall on October 31st. Windom (Cottonwood County) reported a new daily record of 2.4 inches of snowfall and Comfrey (Brown County) reported 3.5 inches of snow. Winthrop, Monticello, Plymouth, and Sandstone all reported over 4 inches.

October was also exceptionally windy, with many climate stations reporting 30 mph or greater wind gusts on 12 to 15 days during the month. These winds accelerated the drying out of the landscape.

As October ends the U.S. Drought Monitor showed that over 90 percent of the Minnesota landscape was in at least Moderate Drought, and over 50 percent was in Severe Drought. This is probably the most significant autumn footprint of drought in Minnesota since the autumn of 2012. This should probably come as no surprise since the 2024 September-October time frame shows that on a statewide basis it was the 3rd driest in Minnesota history was well as the warmest in Minnesota history.

Minnesota Climate Adaptation Awards Nominations Solicited: The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program (MCAP) has put out a call for nominations for the 2025 Climate Adaptation Awards. These awards have been presented annually since 2014 and recognize exceptional achievements in climate resilience or climate justice through the development, advancement, or implementation of climate adaptation strategies. We know that celebrating success and showcasing the actions and leadership of our peers can help to accelerate adaptation across Minnesota, and beyond. Recipients have developed cutting-edge adaptation plans for their communities, supported project-specific implementation of adaptation investments, and served as leaders championing adaptation across their organizations. Awards are presented in five categories. Please review the procedures for the awards nominations at the MCAP web site and consider nominating worthy individuals or organizations by December 2nd.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: Reuters reported this week that the Valencia Region of Spain suffered from historical flash flooding due to intense and record-setting rainfall on Tuesday (October 29). Many areas reported over 15 inches of rainfall. Some bridges and buildings were swept away and severe erosion and landslides produced massive amounts of mud on streets and roads. There were also widespread power outages. The Valencia Region that produces two-thirds of the citrus fruit grown in Spain, a leading global exporter.

According to the Weather Underground it may be a interesting last month for the Atlantic Hurricane Season as there are currently at least 3 areas that will be monitored by the NOAA National Hurricane Center for tropical storm development over the next week or so. According to Chris Dolce of the Weather Underground the last month of hurricane season generates one storm every 1 to 2 years, on average. In the past 10 years, the season's last storm fizzled as soon as Oct. 28 and as late as Dec. 7.

A news release from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office: In the Tea-CUP project (Co-developing Useful Predictions) scientists from the Met Office and China have been working with tea experts and local farmers in Yunnan Province to understand what seasonal and climate information they need to inform adaptation measures. The projects inclusive approach ensures that services are tailored to the specific needs of users, considering factors beyond scientific evidence, such as cultural values and social norms. This new joint approach helps tea farmers adapt to climate challenges by providing timely and relevant climate information.
MPR listener question: I noticed that the high temperature for Minneapolis on any day in September 2024 was always at least 70°F. I was wondering about if there was ever any September other than 2024 where the high temperature on any given day was never below 70°F?
Answer: Interesting question. No there is not another September in the Twin Cities climate history where the daytime high temperature was always 70°F or greater. The closest was in 1948 when 28 of the 30 days in September brought daytime highs of 70°F or greater. It is also interesting to note that September of 2024 was the only time the monthly average temperature in the Twin Cities has exceeded 70°F (70.4°F). That is roughly equivalent to the average September temperature in Eureka Springs, Arkansas.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 1st: 1The average MSP high temperature for this date is 50 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 34 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 1st:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 77 degrees F in 1933; lowest daily maximum temperature of 25 degrees F in 1951; lowest daily minimum temperature of 10 degrees F in 1951; highest daily minimum temperature of 57 degrees F in 2000, and record precipitation of 1.85 inches in 1991. Record snowfall is 18.5 inches in 1991.

Average dew point for November 1st is 33°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 62°F in 2000 and the minimum dew point on this date is -4 degrees F in 1984.

All-time state records for November 1st: The state record high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F at Winona (Winona County) in 1950. The state record low temperature for this date is -5 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1919. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.28 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 1991. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 24.1 inches at Duluth (St Louis County) in 1991.
Past Weather: Bitter cold gripped the state of Minnesota on the morning of November 1 in 1919. With 2 to 4 inches of snow cover across northern Minnesota, overnight temperatures plummeted to record lows. Many areas reported temperatures in the teens and single digits, and across several northern counties, temperatures were subzero. The afternoon high temperature at Hallock (Kittson County) only reached 23°F.

The warmest ever November 1st was in 1950 when many communities saw afternoon temperatures in the 70s F. Some parts of southern Minnesota reached 80°F or greater. After a morning low of just 38°F Pipestone reached an afternoon high of 82°F.

On November 1 of 1991 Minnesota was in the middle of the famous blizzard that had started on Halloween. It was a long-lasting blizzard that dropped 12 to 28 inches of snowfall across much of the state, and over 30 inches om parts of St Louis, Lake, and Cook Counties along the north shore of Lake Superior. It took days to clear roads and shovel out businesses and homes.

Outlook:
Warming temperatures over the weekend, but with chances for rain each day. Continued even warmer on Monday with chances for rain and even thunderstorms. Cooling back closer to normal for Tuesday through Friday of next week, and generally drier weather.

Comments on Soil Moisture Recharge:I have heard from many MPR listeners in recent weeks about their concern for the dryness this autumn season and its potential negative effects for gardens and agricultural soils. Indeed, the precipitation during the autumn season is one of the most critical features of our climate in terms of maintaining adequate soil moisture for gardens and for agricultural crops.

Numerous studies over the decades by respected scientists like Donald Baker and Wally Nelson have shown that on average 50 to 60 percent of the total autumn precipitation across Minnesota is stored by the soil, the highest fractional storage of moisture for any season of the year. This relatively higher value of soil moisture storage for this time of year is due to several reasons.

Most vegetation has died or is in the process of going dormant and using little soil moisture; surface evaporation is reduced because of the lower air temperatures, sun angle and declining daylength; and rainfall rates more closely match the infiltration rates of our soils (0.25 to 0.35 inches per hour), meaning that less is lost to runoff. For individual autumn storms, storage efficiency can be as high as 80 percent, so that for every inch of rainfall, approximately 0.80 inches can be stored in the soil in many areas of the state.

Average autumn (September 1 to November 30) precipitation across the state ranges from 6 inches to 8 inches for most areas of the state. So far in the autumn of 2024 rainfall has been mixed across the state, with abundant amounts (2-4 inches) in northern counties and some southeastern areas (1 to 3 inches), but less than 1 inch over most of the rest of the state. Many important agricultural counties in the state have measured less than half an inch of rainfall. As of this week according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 86 percent of the Minnesota landscape was in at least Moderate Drought, and 43 percent was in Severe Drought.

Despite recent rainfalls of 0.25 to 0.50 inches (Thursday), it is looking less likely that soil moisture recharge will be near average this autumn, even if soils remain unfrozen and absorb a good portion of both November and December precipitation. This situation means that soil moisture recharge in the early spring of 2025 will be very critical to both the 2025 gardening season as well as the 2025 crop season in Minnesota. For most gardeners, supplemental water this fall will be good for the yard and garden, but most farmers don’t have this option. Hopefully we will have a wet spring in 2025 so we can be more optimistic about the next crop season.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: The Weather Underground reported this week that Hurricane Milton spawned a record number of tornadoes across Florida according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center. From just before midnight on October 8 to October 9, there were 46 tornado reports across Florida, most across south-central areas. This is a record daily number at least going back to 1950. The tornadoes amplified the total damages from Milton, still be tabulated.

The Weather Underground also featured a good article about the expected change in the polar jet stream across North America next week. The Jetstream pattern is expected to transition from Zonal to Amplified, meaning that low pressure systems may be coming to Minnesota from the southwest, perhaps bring more heat, but more moisture as well. This could mean more general rains next week to conclude a dry month of October. The rains would be most welcome.

MPR listener question: You and Cathy Wurzer have spoken so much this year about the winds, especially the frequency of high wind speeds. We wondered if we have had any perfectly calm days in the Twin Cities this year? And if we have, is this pretty rare?
Answer: No, we have not recorded an entire day of calm this year in the Twin Cities. The closest we came to this was on February 21st, when 14 of the 24 hours that day showed calm. But the average wind speed that day was 1.8 mph. A completely calm day is quite rare historically. Most years it does not occur. Speaking of wind, November is climatologically the 2nd windiest month of the year in Minnesota, so expect more wind in the coming weeks.
Twin Cities Almanac for October 25th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 53 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 37 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 25th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 82 degrees F in 1989; lowest daily maximum temperature of 29 degrees F in 2020; lowest daily minimum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1887; highest daily minimum temperature of 62 degrees F in 2000, and record precipitation of 0.75 inches in 2012. Record snowfall is 0.4 inches in 2020.

Average dew point for October 25th is 35°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 65°F in 1971 and the minimum dew point on this date is 9 degrees F in 1972.
All-time state records for October 25th: The state record high temperature for this date is 87 degrees F at New Ulm 2S (Brown County) in 1927. The state record low temperature for this date is -10 degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County) in 1887. The state record precipitation for this date is 4.17 inches at Winona Dam (Winona County) in 2023. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 15.0 inches at Sandy Lake Dam (Aitkin County) in 1942.
Past Weather: One of the coldest October weather patterns in history was gripping the state on October 25 of 1887. Several climate stations reported morning lows in the single digits and some reported subzero readings. The daytime high only reached 21°F at Rochester, a typical high temperature for the month of January.

A warm spell of weather encompassed the state on October 25 of 1927. Many areas, even on the Iron Range saw daytime highs reach the 70s F. Fourteen counties reported afternoon high temperatures of 80°F or greater.

An early season winter storm brought heavy snow to the northern third of Minnesota over October 24-25 of 1942. Many areas reported 4 to 8 inches of snow, while a few climate stations in north-central and northeastern Minnesota reported over 10 inches of snowfall.

Outlook:
Mostly sunny over the weekend with warmer than normal temperatures. Then very warm for Monday and Tuesday with increasing cloudiness on Tuesday and a chance for showers later in the day. Chances for showers continue on Wednesday and early Thursday of next week, with temperatures running closer to normal.

Flirting with a historically dry October:

October continued to be extremely dry this week for most places in the state, with the exception of northeastern Minnesota where rainfall was recorded on both October 12 and 13. In fact some observers in the northeast reported between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall over those dates. A few reported new daily record rainfall amounts including:

1.44 inches at Wolf Ridge
1.36 inches at Embarrass
1.20 inches at Tower
1.12 inches at Grand Portage

Still, many observers in the state have reported little or no rainfall for the month so far, and we are past the halfway point. The statewide average rainfall this month is only 0.26 inches, although it continues to look like the last week of this month may bring significant rainfall.

Here are the 5 driest Octobers in state history based on statewide average precipitation:

1952 0.13 inches
1889 0.14 inches
1895 0.27 inches
1944 0.35 inches
1976 0.46 inches

This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed that 97 percent of Minnesota is abnormally dry, while 72 percent of the landscape is in at least Moderate Drought, and of that amount 28 percent is in Severe Drought. Stream levels and lake levels continue to decline and landscape vegetation is drying out. It is not surprise that according to the recent fire danger maps from the MN-DNR all of the state counties are rated High, Very High, or Extreme in terms of fire danger (as of October 17). Burning restrictions are in place in Cook, Lake, Koochiching, and portions of northern St Louis County.

The National Weather Service has had to issue a number of Red Flag Warnings so far this month, including one on Thursday, October 17 that encompassed 85 of Minnesota’s 87 counties. Many climate stations reported wind gusts over 30 mph and relative humidity of only 14 to 20 percent that afternoon. Wind gusts over 30 mph have been very common this month, occurring on nearly half of all days so far at many climate stations.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

We are not the only ones suffering from a dry October. The Weather Underground this week features an article about the long dry spells current underway in New York and Philadelphia where the longest ever stretches without measurable rainfall may be approached.

The United Kingdom Meteorological Office announced earlier this month the launch of its Local Authority Climate Service. This service provides local authorities with easy access to tailored information on climate change, to support local climate change adaptation planning. Using this online service local authorities can visualise climate challenges, explore climate projections and communicate a climate story specific to their local areas.

BTW this service in the UK is a close analogy to the CLIMAT online service offered by our own Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program. CLIMAT provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota. Users can view climate projections down to the 4km/2.5mile scale across the state, visualizing how even specific towns will likely be impacted in the coming decades. To explore this tool, I encourage you to visit the MCAP web site.

MPR listener question:

With all the talk about drought this month and the recent Red Flag warnings by the National Weather Service, we were trying to remember our Minnesota wildfire history. It seems that some of the most historical wildfires in our state occurred in the month of October. Is this correct?

Answer:

Yes, indeed. There are at least three historical wildfire episodes that occurred in the month of October that often appear in various Minnesota history books. In October 1871 there were widespread prairie wildfires in western and southern Minnesota during early October. Sparse weather records suggest very dry conditions prevailed (there were also famous October wildfires in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois that month). On October 7 of 1910 was the famous Baudette fire roared across Lake of the Woods County and destroyed the towns of Baudette and Spooner. The fire occurred after prolonged drought and during a period of very low humidity. On October 10 of 1918 a spark from a passing train triggered a fire near Cloquet which spread to Moose Lake and killed over 400 people. Gusty winds and low relative humidity helped the fire spread with phenomenal speed.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 18th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 40 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 18th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees F in 1950; lowest daily maximum temperature of 30 degrees F in 1930; lowest daily minimum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1950, and record precipitation of 1.05 inches in 1979. Record snowfall is 1.3 inches in 1976.

Average dew point for October 18th is 39°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 65°F in 1971 and the minimum dew point on this date is 9 degrees F in 1972.

All-time state records for October 18th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 88 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) in 1910 and at Montevideo (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1945. The state record low temperature for this date is 5 degrees F at Crookston (Polk County) in 1992. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.25 inches at Deep Portage (Cass County) in 1994. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 16.0 inches at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1916.

Words of the Week: Ice Plow

Before refrigeration, in the Pioneer settlement era and even the early 20th Century, ice plow were used to cut grooves in the ice over rivers, lakes, and ponds. These were sharp-bladded plows pulled by teams of horses that cut grided patterns across the ice. The ice blocks were sawed out, then floated to shore and taken by wagons or sleds to ice houses and caves.

Past Weather:

Northwestern Minnesota was hammered by heavy snowfall over October 18 of 1916. Many areas reported 5 to 8 inches of snow, while Roseau reported 9 inches, Hallock reported 12 inches, and Baudette reported 16 inches, all record amounts for so early in the autumn.

Large areas of western and southern Minnesota basked in sunshine with temperatures of 80°F or greater on the afternoon of October 18 in 1945. After a morning low of 46°F the temperature rose to 88°F at Montevideo.

Record low temperatures prevailed across most of the state on the morning of October 18 in 1972. Many communities reported temperatures in the teens or single digits. The high temperature at Babbitt (St Louis County) only reached 27°F with some snow on the ground.

Outlook:

Continued warm temperatures over the weekend and through Tuesday of next week. A slight chance for showers in the north early on Saturday, and again late Tuesday. Temperatures will return to closer to normal for Wednesday through Friday of next week.

Continued Record Dry Spell:Our record dry spell continues on a statewide basis. The average total precipitation across the state since August 31st is just 0.55 inches, about 3.25 inches below normal. So far this month only a few showers have occurred over northern Minnesota on October 5-6. Observers in Carlton, St Louis, Koochiching, Cook, Lake, Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Roseau, and Cass Counties reported some measurable amounts of rainfall, but mainly less than a tenth of an inch.

The impact of the dry spell has been exacerbated by temperatures that have averaged 5°Fto 8°F above normal. This combination has produced unusually high evapotranspiration (loss of water vapor from the landscape and area lakes), so consequently Minnesota is showing signs of the dryness in terms of declining lake levels, stream flow, and vegetative stress.

This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor shows that 97 percent of the state is abnormally dry, 69 percent is in at least Moderate Drought, and 20 percent (mostly northeastern counties) are in Severe Drought. All of this has developed over the last six weeks.

After a cool-down period for this Saturday through Tuesday, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center models continue to favor warmer and drier than normal conditions across Minnesota through the end of October, with perhaps a slightly higher chance for showers the last week of the month.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: The Weather Underground web site reported extensively on the impact of Hurricane Milton this week which made landfall along the central west coast of Florida near Siesta Key. The storm was a category 3 (winds 111-129 mph) at the time of landfall. Preliminary rainfall reports from the climate station network in Florida show that Milton dropped 8 to 18 inches of rain in many areas of the state, producing widespread flash floods. Damages, injuries, and deaths were still being tallied from Milton, but one of the features of this landfall hurricane was that it spawned an unusual number of damaging tornadoes to compound the overall trauma of the storm.

A recent research paper published by the EGU-The Cryosphere documents that in elevated landscapes of the tropics (central Andes Mountains), the snow line is rising and there is measured accelerated loss of ice from glaciers due to episodes of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific. This is pace of ice loss is expected to continue.

The AGU-EOS features a detailed poster suitable for most school classrooms about climate change, symptoms and impacts. It also features links to various adaptation and mitigation strategies and responses. You can find it on their web site.
MPR listener question: Does our Minnesota weather pattern so far this autumn constitute a flash drought. We know meteorologists have used this term in recent years, but wondered if you could clarify.
Answer: Yes, Minnesota is experiencing flash drought this autumn, and especially over the most recent six weeks. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration a flash drought is produced by rapid intensification of dryness due to changes in precipitation, temperature, wind, or solar radiation, often in combination. These changes in the weather amplify evapotranspiration and lower soil moisture, putting stress on vegetation and water. This rapid onset of drought can cause extensive damage to agriculture, economies, and ecosystems when it is not anticipated or discovered early. In the Minnesota climate, flash droughts can have more negative impacts in spring and summer, than in the fall and winter.
Twin Cities Almanac for October 11th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 61 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 43 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 11th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 85 degrees F in 2015; lowest daily maximum temperature of 39 degrees F in 1959; lowest daily minimum temperature of 22 degrees F in 1876; highest daily minimum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1997, and record precipitation of 1.36 inches in 1881. Record snowfall is 0.5 inches in 1977.

Average dew point for October 11th is 41°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 67°F in 1962 and the minimum dew point on this date is 11 degrees F in 2012.
All-time state records for October 11th: The state record high temperature for this date is 95 degrees F at Moorhead (Clay County) in 2015. The state record low temperature for this date is 10 degrees F at Ada (Norman County) in 1935. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.61 inches at Crookston (Polk County) in 2021. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 12.0 inches at Mount Iron (St Louis County) in 1909.
Past Weather: A very early season winter storm brought snow to many parts of Minnesota over October 11-12 of 1909. Many climate observers reported 1 to 3 inches of snow, while up north on the Iron Range, Stephen’s Mine reported 7 inches and Mount Iron reported 12 inches, records for so early in the autumn season.

Over 75 percent of the state landscape reported frost on the morning of October 11 in 1935. Many northern areas reported morning low temperatures in the teens, while Ada in the Red River Valley was just 10°F. Combined with the record-setting cold temperatures over a dozen climate stations also reported snow.

October 11 of 2015 was arguably the warmest in state history with most climate stations reporting afternoon temperatures of 80°F or greater. Twenty climate stations reported 90°F or greater. After a morning low of 45°F Bemidji residents saw the afternoon high temperature climb to 92°F.
Outlook: Generally sunny, but much cooler over the weekend, with temperatures averaging well below normal. There is a chance for showers in northern areas of the state Saturday into early Sunday. There will be widespread chances for frost on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. By Wednesday a warming trend will begin and bring warmer than normal temperatures back to the state. By next weekend there will be a better chance for showers statewide.

Dry Spell Continues With Frosts:After a record-setting warm and dry month of September, October has begun warm and dry as well, with zero rainfall reported across 95 percent of the state.

Speaking of rainfall, September was the driest in history for several long-term climate stations in Minnesota, including:

Minneota (Lyon County) with 0”
Canby (Yellow Medicine County0 with a Trace
Alexandria (Douglas County) with .03”
Melrose (Stearns County) and Elk River (Sherburne County) with .05”
MSP with .06”
Park Rapids (Hubbard County), Red Wing (Goodhue County), Windom (Cottonwood County) with .10”
Brainerd (Crow Wing County) with .11”
Marshall (Lyon County) with .15”
Jordan (Scott County) with .16”
Two Harbors 7NW (Lake County) with .17”
Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) and St Peter (Nicollet County) with .18”
Ottertail (Otter Tail County) with .19”

Overall, the statewide average rainfall was 0.55 inches for September, a record low amount. The consequence of this prolonged dry spell continues to show up in the weekly Drought Montor (released October 3rd which shows 94 percent of the state abnormally dry, and 43 percent of the state in Moderate Drought. Another consequence of the prolonged dry spell has shown up in the afternoon relative humidity readings around the state, many of which have ranged from just 16 percent to 24 percent this week, as the National Weather Service has had to issue Red Flag Warnings in some areas for fire danger. Lastly, the dryness has contributed to the National Weather Service issuing frost advisories and freeze warnings for parts of central and northern Minnesota on Thursday night of this week. Friday morning (October 4) brought the most widespread frosts of the autumn season to many parts of central and northern Minnesota, with low temperatures ranging from 24°F to 32°F.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: As opposed to our very dry September in Minnesota, the BBC Weather Center reported this week that the month was the wettest since 1918 for ten counites in southern England. Many climate stations reported 3 times their normal September rainfall, and the station in Woburn (Bedfordshire) reported 9.80 inches of rain for the month, more than 4 times normal. The rain produced a good deal of flooding in many watersheds.

NOAA reported this week that some of their web services provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information, including the National Climate Data Center in Asheville, NC were down due to impacts from Helene. Some products provided by Climate.gov and Drought.gov are note available. There was not estimate about when they might be restored. Portions of North Carolina, including Asheville reported 14 to 20 inches of rainfall associated with Helene.

An article in Scientific America this week elaborated on the historic and widespread flooding brought by Helene to the Appalachia Region of North Carolina, This flooding was not only the results of 14 to 20 inches of rain from Helene, but also because the previous week had brought widespread rains that had saturated the soils ahead of time causing most of the rain from Helene to runoff and produce extreme flooding.
MPR listener question: I farm in Southern Minnesota (Austin) and wonder when our first frost will occur. A second question is how frequently do we get late frosts and has this changed?

Answer:
For the most recent three decades (1991-2020), the 50 percent probability date for an autumn frost in the Austin, MN area (Mower County) is September 29. In the 60 years prior to 1990 the 50 percent probability date for a frost was September 26, three days earlier. In terms of more recent trends, the 50 percent probability date for a season ending frost in the Austin area since 2009 has been October 11, or 12 days later. So you are indeed more frequently seeing later and later autumn frosts in your area. This is undoubtedly a climate change signal.
Twin Cities Almanac for October 4th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 65 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 4th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 89 degrees F in 1922; lowest daily maximum temperature of 41 degrees F in 1885; lowest daily minimum temperature of 24 degrees F in 1935; highest daily minimum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1922, and record precipitation of 4.61 inches in 2005. There was a trace of snow in 1935.

Average dew point for October 4th is 42°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 69°F in 2005 and the minimum dew point on this date is 13 degrees F in 1952.
All-time state records for October 4th: The state record high temperature for this date is 94 degrees F at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 1997. The state record low temperature for this date is 10 degrees F at Ada (Norman County) in 1935. The state record precipitation for this date is 4.61 inches at MSP Airport (Hennepin County) in 2005. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 3.2 inches at Ada (Norman County) in 2012.
Past Weather: Widespread record-setting low temperatures occurred around the state on October 4 of 1935. Many areas of the state reported morning lows in the twenties F, while observers in 35 central and northern counties reported minimum temperatures in the teens F. The afternoon high temperature only reached 36°F at Brainerd, and at least seven counties reported a trace of snow.

October 4 of 1997 was the warmest in state history with most areas of Minnesota reporting afternoon high temperatures in the 70s and 80s F. Eighteen southern counties reported temperatures of 90°F or greater.

Strong thunderstorms brought heavy and record-setting rainfalls to central and east-central counties over October 4-5 of 2002. There was widespread flash-flooding which closed many roads for days. Many climate stations reported 4-6 inches of rainfall. Wild River State Park in Chisago County reported over 7 inches, while an observer in Rush City (also in Chisago County) reported 8.98 inches.

A very early season snowstorm blanketed north central and northwestern Minnesota over October 4-5 of 2012. Many areas of the state reported a total snowfall of 3-6 inches, while Warroad reported 7 inches, a record amount for so early in the autumn. Temperatures bounced back into the 40s and 50s F over the next two days, so the snow was short-lived.

Outlook:
Warm, sunny, and windy on Saturday with a chance for showers in the far north, but dry elsewhere. Continued warmer than normal next week with little chance for rainfall. Mostly sunny skies.

Preliminary Climate Summary for September of 2024:
Warm and dry are the succinct words for this September in Minnesota. This will be the first time in history that the statewide average September temperature will exceed 64°F, surpassing the previous warmest September of 2015 (63.8°F). Most climate stations will report an average monthly temperature that is 5°F to 8°F above normal. Counties of northwestern and north-central Minnesota were nearly 9°F warmer than normal. Extremes were 92°F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) on the 16th and 26°F at Ely (St Louis County) on the 7th. Within the state climate station network, there were 48 record daily high temperatures and 73 record daily warming minimum temperatures. Many nighttime temperatures remained in the 60s F, and even a few nights never went below 70°F at places like Milan (Chippewa County) and Alexandria (Douglas County).

September was drier than normal in almost all areas of Minnesota, except for the far northern sections of Lake of the Woods, Koochiching, Itasca, and St Louis Counties which received some heavy rains from isolated thunderstorms, and they totaled over 3 inches. Many climate stations reported less than a quarter of an inch of rainfall for the month, and some received less than a tenth of an inch. Some of the driest spots included Redwood Falls Municipal Airport with just a trace of rain, and Wolf Ridge ELC with only 0.05 inches. Over 40 climate stations reported the driest September in history, including Two Harbors and MSP with just 0.06 inches of rainfall.

On a statewide basis the average rainfall was 0.52 inches, which is the driest September on record back to 1895. As a result of the warm, dry month, Minnesota saw drought conditions return to some portions of the state. At the beginning of September less than 20 percent of the state landscape was designated to be abnormally dry and there were no areas in drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. However, as we end the month, over 80 percent of the state landscape is abnormally dry, and nearly 16 percent is in Moderate Drought (mostly southwestern counties and northeastern counties).

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center models all favor a warmer and drier than normal pattern to prevail across Minnesota through the first two weeks of October.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: The Weather Underground was reporting updates on Hurricane Helene this week as it moved north offshore along the west coast of Florida. The hurricane brought heavy rains, high winds, and significant storm surge to many areas of Florida’s west coast, especially north of Venice. Some areas of the state had already received 4-6 inches of rainfall by midday on Thursday. The hurricane was expected to cause serious damage in the Big Bend area north of Tampa.

In other news related to Hurricane Helene, the Wall Street Journal this week featured an interesting article about the use of drones to monitor and assess hurricanes as they form and develop. These drones are used to bring more frequent and multi-level measurement data to the National Hurricane Center forecasters and might be expected to be used routinely in the future as they are most cost-effective than hurricane hunter aircraft. (Thanks to Bob Potter formerly of MPR for this tip).

A recent study published in the journal Nature documents a case for more frequent and extreme El Nino episodes due to climate change impacts. The authors from the University of Colorado find that with continued warming of the equatorial bands of latitude, atmospheric and oceanic dynamics will favor more frequent El Nino formations, as well as strong episodes. Many of the strong El Nino episodes are associated with some of the warmest years in the global climate record.

This week’s AGU-EOS news contains an article about increased frequency of wildfires in the Arctic Region of Siberia. New research demonstrates that the rise in Siberian wildfires is related to drought, drying soils, and decreased rainfall caused by Arctic warming.
MPR listener question: We noticed this week that the afternoon relative humidity values were in the teens in many parts of western Minnesota. Having lived in Arizona before moving to Minnesota a few years ago we grew accustomed to such dry air in September. But how often does this happen during September in Minnesota?
Answer: Yes, I noticed some readings as low as 16 percent in the Red River Valley this week. Such dry September air is unusual in Minnesota. In the western portions of the state, September relative humidity can drop below 20 percent about once per decade. In the eastern portions of the state, which are occupied by more lakes and forests, such low humidity in September only comes about once every two decades. If such conditions are accompanied by high winds and above normal temperatures the National Weather Service will release a Red Flag Warning for high fire danger.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 27th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 49 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 27th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 88 degrees F in 1987; lowest daily maximum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1942; lowest daily minimum temperature of 29 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 65 degrees F in 2013, and record precipitation of 0.54 inches in 1947. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for September 27th is 45°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 67°F in 1905 and the minimum dew point on this date is 24 degrees F in 1951.
All-time state records for September 27th: The state record high temperature for this date is 97 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1894, at Hallock (Kittson County) and Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1952, and at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1956. The state record low temperature for this date is 13 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1893. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.50 inches at Wolf Ridge ELC (Lake County) in 1996. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 2.0 inches at Tower (St Louis County) and Bemidji (Beltrami County) in 1899 and at Littlefork (Koochiching County) in 1912.
Past Weather Freezing temperatures brought an abrupt end to the Minnesota growing season on September 27 of 1893. Most parts of the state recorded morning low temperatures in the 20s F, while portions of western Minnesota saw temperatures in the teens. The afternoon high temperature only reached 47°F at Park Rapids.

Avery early season snowstorm brought several inches to parts of Minnesota over September 26-27 of 1942. Several locations reported 2-4 inches, and a few like Willmar and Detroit Lakes reported 6 inches or more.

It felt like mid-July on September 27 of 1956 as most areas of the state reported afternoon temperatures between 85°F and 95°F. Canby reached 97°F. Humidity was so low that there was fire danger in many places.

Outlook: Continued warm, sunny, and dry weather throughout the weekend and most of next week. Temperatures will average several degrees above normal.

Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Warm and Dry September Continues:

The first 19 days of September have brought extraordinary warmth to the state. The average statewide temperature for this period is the 3rd warmest in history, trailing only 1931 and 1897. Most climate stations are reporting an average monthly temperature so far that is 5° to 8°F above normal. Many climate stations have reported 14-15 days with daytime temperatures in the 80s F, while climate stations in Yellow Medicine, Redwood, Lyon, and Lac Qui Parle Counties have reported 90°F. In addition, many nights have remained warm, with low temperatures in the 60s F. Dr. Kenny Blumenfeld of the Minnesota State Climatology Office offered more insights on these warm temperatures in a commentary posted on their web site this week.

Over the last 20 days the statewide average rainfall has been less than a quarter of an inch, while many individual climate stations have reported less than a tenth of an inch. Parts of northern Minnesota received significant rains over the past week with amounts ranging from 1 to 2 inches. Along the Canadian border, both International Falls and Kabetogama have received over 3 inches of rain so far this month. A few stations reported new daily rainfall records from strong thunderstorms earlier this week on September 16 and 17. Some of these records included:

2.27 inches at International Falls
2.22 inches at Baudette
2.02 inches at Kabetogama

New outlook models from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center suggest that the dry pattern may persist through most of the rest of the month. Combined with the expected warmer than normal temperatures, this may mean that we will see a return of more areas in Moderate Drought around the state by month’s end.

Thoughts on fall colors:

The time is upon us when Minnesotans love to admire the beautiful changes in color that autumn brings. For those who are new to the state, I think you will find that the fall season is perhaps the most favored one by most residents.

The color changes are progressing this month even with the unusually warm climte. Most places around the state have been reporting temperatures that are from 5 to 8 degrees F warmer than normal. There has also been a conspicuous absence of overnight lows in the 30s F, a climate signal that most vegetation responds to in addition to the rapidly changing day length. The last time northern climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the 30s F was back on September 6 and 7. Color changes occur variably around the state, starting in far northeastern counties typically around the 3rd week of September and lasting until the first few days of October, then progressing to more southerly counties where the peak color typically occurs during the first half of October. The MN-DNR web site is a good place to check the daily progress of color changes around the state. The most recent map depicts 25% to 50% color change in portions of northwestern Minnesota and some areas of northeastern Minnesota.

One further note: Friends have often remarked that these color changes seem to be more vivid to the eye than those seen in spring green-up or during the flowering times of late spring and summer. There may be a number of reasons for this, perhaps some psychological, but two meteorological ones come to mind. The fall season usually brings an increase in atmospheric transmissivity, the ability of the atmosphere to let light pass through it. Some call this cleaner air, but whatever we choose to call it, we can see more clearly across some distance. The second feature of the climate that is evident is the declining sun angle. Sunlight strikes the landscape from much lower angles and therefore there is more reflection of light off into lateral directions observed by the human eye. Recall for example, your more frequent use of the sun visor in your car when commuting early in the morning or later in the afternoon during the fall season.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

A recent paper published in the journal Science documents the global mean temperature back 485 million years. The study shows that the global mean temperature has ranged from 52°F to 97°F. Earth’s current global mean temperature is around 59°F. The historical global temperatures are highly correlated to global mean atmospheric carbon dioxide. Most disturbing is the current pace of change in both carbon dioxide and global mean temperature.

Earlier this week (September 15-17), a storm system characterized as a near-tropical storm, dumped very heavy and record-setting amounts of rainfall on portions of North Carolina. Observers in some coastal areas (Brunswick County) reported from 8 to 19 inches of rainfall, and Wilmington reported nearly 11 inches. Many roads were flooded and or portions of roads were washed out. The NOAA National Weather Service Office in Newport/Moorhead City offers updates on the storm and damages.

The BBC reported this week that Storm Boris brought heavy rains and devastating floods to portions of the Czech Republic, Romania, and Austria. Then later in the week the storm brought 8 to 12 inches of rain to portions of northern Italy, causing widespread flooding and landslides.

MPR listener question:

Here in La Crescent (Winona County) we have recorded exactly 0.01 inches of rainfall so far this month. What is our record driest September?

Answer:

The record driest September in La Crescent was in 1998 when only 0.30 inches of rain fell. Elsewhere in Winona County, the driest September at Minnesota City was in 1952 with just 0.18 inches, and the driest September in Winona was in 1979 with just 0.24 inches of rain. I noted that the evening of September 19th this week brought nearly an inch of rainfall to La Crescent, so that will help ease the recent dryness of the landscape.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 20th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 71 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 53 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 20th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 92 degrees F in 2022; lowest daily maximum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1875; lowest daily minimum temperature of 28 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1895, and record precipitation of 1.82 inches in 1902. There was a trace of snowfall on this date in 1927.

Average dew point for September 20th is 48°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 70°F in 1970 and the minimum dew point on this date is 22 degrees F in 1930.

All-time state records for September 20th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 99 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1891 and at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1984. The state record low temperature for this date is 14 degrees F at Karlstad (Kittson County) in 1973. The state record precipitation for this date is 5.54 inches at Halstad (Norman County) in 2017. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 4.0 inches at Caribou 2S (Kittson County) in 1947.

Past Weather:

Climate observers in Kittson, Koochiching, and St Louis Counties in far northern Minnesota all reported an exceptional early season snowfall on this date in 1947. Up to 4 inches of snow fell in Kittson County.

A hard freeze ended the growing season on September 20 of 1973. Many climate stations reported morning lows in the 20s F. Observers in Kittson, Roseau, and St Louis Counties reported morning low temperatures in the teens. The afternoon high at Babbitt only reached 50°F.

Very warm temperatures prevailed across western and southern Minnesota on September 20 of 1984. Observers in 37 counties reported afternoon temperatures in the 90s F. After a morning low of 48°F, citizens of Montevideo (Chippewa County) saw the afternoon temperatures climb 51°F to reach 99°F.

Outlook:

Still warm temperatures on Saturday with slight chances for rain, then cooler for Sunday and Monday, and still chances for showers in far southern Minnesota. A warming trend will start on Wednesday of next week with mostly dry weather to follow.

A Very Dry Two Weeks:It has been a very wet year across the state of Minnesota, with many climate stations already reporting total precipitation for the year-to-date that exceeds their annual normal amount. So, the recent two-week dry period (nearly total absence of significant rainfall) has been quite unusual. In fact, statewide statistics show it has been the second driest two-week period or longer for the year so far.

Statewide average precipitation low points in 2024:

January 19-February 7 average of 0.06 inches (14 days)
August 31-September 13 average of 0/08 inches (20 days)
February 16-March 19 average of 0.16 inches (33 days)

In addition, some of the lowest values of afternoon relative humidity for the growing season have been measured this week with readings in the 25 to 37 percent range. As a result, many gardens around the state have required some watering this week, along with other landscapes like golf courses. It appears that this situation will change significantly during the second half of September with more frequent chances for rain beginning next week and carrying through the balance of the month. Some of the rainfall could even be heavy, over an inch.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: Hurricane Francine made landfall in Louisiana about 5pm on Wednesday with winds up to 100 mph. According to the Weather Channel web site, Francine continued on Thursday to bring rainfall to parts of TN, MO, and IL as remnants of its low pressure migrated north. Many parts of Louisiana reported 3 to 7 inches of rainfall from Francine, while areas around Slidell and New Orleans reported from 8 to 11 inches of rainfall.

This week the Weather Underground reported that Arizona, California, Florida, Main, and New Hampshire endured their hottest meteorological summer (June-August) in history. Overall it was the 4th hottest summer for the USA, with many cities declaring it their hottest as well. On August 6th, Deadhorse Airport in northern Alaska reported a daytime high of 89°F, the warmest temperatures ever recorded in Alaska north of 70°F latitude. MPR listener question: Last week you spoke about September trending warming and being more like a continuation of summer, except for the declining daylength. But it seems like as the autumn season passes we see more cloudy days and less sunshine as well. Isn’t this true?

Answer: Yes indeed. We lose about 1.5 hours of day length in both September and October, then another hour is lost in November. But compounding this loss in daylight hours is a significant increase in cloudy days when we don’t see the sun at all. For example in the Twin Cities Metro Area the historical climate data show that we get about 10 or 11 cloudy days in September, then 14 to 15 such days in October, and 18 or 19 such days in November. No wonder, that many Minnesotans start to take a daily dozen of vitamin D during the autumn season.
Twin Cities Almanac for September 13th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 74 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 13th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 95 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1873; lowest daily minimum temperature of 33 degrees F in 1890; highest daily minimum temperature of 72 degrees F in 1939, and record precipitation of 1.29 inches in 1921. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for September 13th is 49°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 71°F in 1939 and the minimum dew point on this date is 22 degrees F in 1923.
All-time state records for September 13th: The state record high temperature for this date is 100 degrees F at Redwood Falls (Redwood County) in 1939. The state record low temperature for this date is 17 degrees F at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1975. The state record precipitation for this date is 4.92 inches at Elk River (Sherburne County) in 2005. There has been no snowfall on this date.
Past Weather: The warmest September 13th in state history was in 1939 when most climate observers reported afternoon temperatures in the 90s F. It reached 100°F at Redwood Falls. Many climate stations also reported overnight low temperatures in the 70s F, as if it was mid-July.

On September 13 of 1975 over 80 climate stations reported morning frost, essentially ending the growing season. Many communities reported morning temperatures in the 20s F, and frost was observed as far south as Windom and Caledonia. The afternoon high temperature at Tower only reached 44°F.

Over September 12-13 of 1978 slow-moving thunderstorms brought heavy rains to southeastern Minnesota, where many climate stations reported 3 to 5 inches of rain. In Rochester they received over 6 inches and many parts of the downtown were flooded. It was the second 6-inch rainstorm of the growing season (another one had cause flooding over July 5-6) which had produced a good deal of flood damage to the downtown area. As a result, flood mitigation work began to re-route the South Zumbro River on the north side of the city.
Outlook: Continuing much warmer than normal into the weekend with a chance for showers later on Saturday and early Sunday, especially in southern counties of the state. Continued warm throughout next week but with greater chances for showers by Wednesday, and towards the end of next week.

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Despite a rather cool, dry start to this month of September, it is worth noting what a strong warming trend has been measured over the last 30 Septembers in Minnesota. Since 1993 the average September temperature on a statewide basis has increased over 3.5°F. Further, 24 of the last 30 Septembers have been warmer than normal. September of 2015 was the warmest in state history, at 7°F above normal, and September of 2023 (last year) was the second warmest at 6.7°F above normal.

September rainfall has been highly variable since 1993 with most years either being very dry or very wet, and very few years being near average. For example, in both 2010 and 2019 the statewide average rainfall in September was over 6 inches, while in 2012 it was just 0.61 inches.

So what might we expect the rest of this month? After a rather cool Saturday this weekend, the balance of the month will bring mostly well above normal temperatures, with many daytime highs in the 80s F. In addition, it also appears that it will be drier than normal, perhaps promoting more garden and landscape watering than was done all summer.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

According to the BBC and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Super Typhoon Yagi was expected to reach the South China coast (south of Hong Kong) by Friday and into early Saturday. It is the strongest typhoon in that area of the South China Sea in at least ten years, and has generated winds of 150 mph, with sea wave heights near 50 feet. As a category 5 storm it will likely cause serious damage to many coastal communities.

This week’s AGU-EOS news includes an interesting analysis of Europe’s recent greenhouse gas budget. Scientists found that parts of eastern Europe and northern Spain have become stronger carbon sinks because of a combination of land use changes, climate-driven disturbances, and—in the case of eastern Europe—a sizable growth of forest biomass. The analysis found that the highest emissions of these gases are found in Belgium, the Netherlands, and the southern United Kingdom.

MPR listener question:

We are relatively new arrivals to Minnesota (originally from Missouri) and we love Minnesota Public Radio. We have heard that it occasionally snows in September here. Is that correct, and if so how often?

Answer:

A September snowfall in Minnesota is perhaps a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence for residents of the southern part of the state. For example, over the past 125 years or so, there have been only 3 measurable snowfalls in the Twin Cities (most recently 1985). Though still a rare occurrence, it is more frequent in northern Minnesota. For example, in the area from Lake of the Woods over to International Falls (along the Canadian Border) there have been 12 measurable snowfalls during September over the past 125 years, most recently in 2003. So, don’t get your hopes up. It is far more realistic to expect the first snowfalls the second half of November.

Twin Cities Almanac for September 6th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 77 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 58 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for September 6th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 1922; lowest daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1911; lowest daily minimum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1885; highest daily minimum temperature of 75 degrees F in 1913, and record precipitation of 1.61 inches in 1881. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for September 6th is 55°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 75°F in 1970 and the minimum dew point on this date is 33 degrees F in 1956.

All-time state records for September 6th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1922. The state record low temperature for this date is 23 degrees F at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1885 and at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 2011. The state record precipitation for this date is 8.44 inches at Cloquet (Carlton County) in 1990. There has been no snowfall on this date.

Past Weather:

The warmest September 6th in state history was likely in 1922 when 37 climate stations reported afternoon temperatures of 90°F or greater. Ten counties reported temperatures of 100°F or greater and at Winona even the overnight low temperature never dropped below 80°F.

On September 6 of 1988 observers across 10 northern Minnesota counties reported frost, with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s F in many areas. The afternoon high temperature only reached 60°F at Lutsen and Bemidji that day.

Heavy thunderstorms moved across northeastern Minnesota over the evening of September 5 and into the morning of September 6 in 1990. The heaviest rains spread from Itasca County east into Carlton and St Louis Counties. The Duluth area reported over 3 inches, Floodwood reported over 6 inches of rain, Jay Cook reported over 7 inches, and Cloquet reported over 8 inches of rain. Many roads were closed due to flooding.

Outlook:

Cool start to the weekend with some morning low temperatures up north in the 30s F on Saturday, with moderation in temperatures by Sunday. Then a significant and prolonged warming trend will start and last at least a week. Temperatures will be well above normal, with many days in the 80s F. It will be generally dry all of next week.

Preliminary Climate Summary for August of 2024:
August will end with average monthly temperatures around the state that are near normal in many areas, especially some southern counties. But most other places reported an average monthly temperature that was 1°F to 2°F above normal. Extremes ranged from 95°F at Austin (Mower County) on August 26 to just 38°F at Brimson (St Louis County) on the morning of August 6. By far the hottest day of the month was Monday, August 26, when Heat Index values ranged from 101°F to 115°F across the state between 3pm and 5pm. The Heat Index hit 119°F at both St James (Watonwan County) and Preston (Fillmore County). Afternoon dew points were in 80s F in many places.

Rainfall for August was above normal across most of Minnesota. A few areas in far northern Minnesota, as well as some southwestern counties reported below normal rainfall. Many observers reported over 6 inches of rain, and within the statewide climate reporting network there were over 65 new daily rainfall records set during the month, with some daily amounts of 3 or 4 inches or more. Strong thunderstorms brought over an inch of rainfall to many areas during the evening of August 26, as well as the early morning of August 27. Many areas reported between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall. There was one brief tornado in Brown County, six reports of large hail, and 53 reports of damaging winds. The State Fairgrounds opened late on Tuesday, August 27th to accommodate clean up efforts from the damaging winds. Then August 29 brought more severe thunderstorms and heavy rains, along with a brief tornado near Isanti. Fortunately, there was only one report of large hail with these storms, but there were 23 reports of damaging winds. Many climate stations reported 1 to 2 inches of rain. Several others reported over 2 inches, including some new daily record amounts. Some of the records included:

1.99 inches at International Falls (Koochiching County)
3.50 inches at Indus (Koochiching County)
2.82 inches at Crookston (Polk County)
2.31 inches at Hokah (Houston County)
2.28 inches at Winona Dam (Winona County)

With the wetter than normal August, year-to-date precipitation remains on track to set an annual record in many areas of the state. Well over 325 climate stations in the state, including the Twin Cities have reported over 30 inches of precipitation for the year, with four more months to go. The statewide average precipitation for the year so far is just under 26 inches, which is close to the 100-year statewide average annual precipitation. The record wettest year was 2019 when the statewide annual precipitation average was 35.65 inches, according to NOAA.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: If you missed the broadcast of the 28th annual edition of the Minnesota State Fair Weather Quiz, you can find it on the web under Minnesota Public Radio, Minnesota Now Programs. Cathy Wurzer and I had fun and hope the audience learned something about our weather and climate.

Typhoon Shanshan brought torrential rains, damaging winds, and high seas to Kyushu, Japan this week. Evacuations were order for over 5 million citizens in the path of the storm. It was one of the strongest typhoons to ever hit Japan according to reports from the BBC. Hundreds of thousands of people were left without power.

As we enter the month of September, the Weather Channel features an article about the normal progression of fall colors across the country, as the trees and vegetation respond to the shortening days of autumn. The article highlights the effects of latitude and elevation on fall color onset, and points out how colors can be more vivid in years of high soil moisture content.

A new study published in the journal Nature Cities highlights efforts by coastal cities to adapt to climate change. The authors examined climate adaptation measures taken by 199 coastal cities and found disparities, mostly based on the economic health of the cities. More ecosystem based approaches may be necessary in the future to achieve better adaptation.

MPR listener question: We were wondering what is the latest date on the calendar that a 100°F temperature has been reported in Minnesota?

Answer: Believe it or not, it was 101°F on September 22 of 1936 in Ada, MN (Norman County). The latest 90°F temperature was October 30 of 1950 at Canby, MN (Yellow Medicine County). Hard to believe a 90°F the day before Halloween!
Twin Cities Almanac for August 30th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 78 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 60 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 30th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 96 degrees F in 1941; lowest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1965; lowest daily minimum temperature of 45 degrees F in 1974; highest daily minimum temperature of 77 degrees F in 2010, and record precipitation of 7.28 inches in 1977. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for August 30th is 58°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 75°F in 1951 and the minimum dew point on this date is 34 degrees F in 1931.

All-time state records for August 30th: The state record high temperature for this date is 103 degrees F at Minneota (Lyon County) in 1976. The state record low temperature for this date is 26 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1935. The state record precipitation for this date is 7.28 inches at MSP Airport (Hennepin County) in 1977. There has been no snowfall on this date.

Anniversary of Historical Act:
Today is the 134th anniversary of Congressional Statutes 371 and 398 which were enacted by Congress on this date in 1890 to help create the volunteer climate observation network in the United States. Under these acts the Secretary of Agriculture was given the authority to issue up to $15 in instrumentation to one unpaid volunteer observer in each county for the purpose of providing the government with daily meteorological observations. .Many volunteers came forward, as in those days, keeping the local weather records was perhaps regarded as more prestigious than it is today. After all, many famous Americans such as Professor John Winthrop of Harvard, statesman Benjamin Franklin, President Thomas Jefferson, writer Henry Thoreau, and explorers Lewis and Clark were at some time engaged as daily weather observers.

The legacy of this act is the detailed climatology available today for most places in the United States.

Past Weather: The exceptionally hot, dry summer of 1976 was wrapping up on August 30 that year with a Heat Wave that brought many record-setting temperatures to Minnesota. Over 20 counties in southern and western Minnesota reported afternoon temperatures in the 90s F, with 103°F reported from Minneota (Lyon County). The heat and drought of 1976 was so devastating to the agricultural economy of Minnesota that the legislature voted to approve a new faculty position at the University of Minnesota for an Extension Climatologist. Guess who filled the position---me!

August 30, 1977 was a rather normal day until early evening when dark clouds appeared on the horizon. An intense thunderstorm began about 8:30 pm and brought 4-5 inches of rainfall to the State Fairgrounds in St Paul by midnight. The maximum rainfall rate occurred between 9:00 and 10:00 pm when over 2.5 inches of rain fell. The storm total of 7.36 inches at the MSP airport remains the 2nd greatest in Twin Cities history, surpassed only by the 10 inches that fell on July 23-24 of 1987. Hundreds of homes in the Twin Cities reported water damage. Evening events at the State Fair were cancelled.

Outlook:
Sunny weekend, with cooler temperatures on Sunday. Sunday morning will bring the coolest temperatures in several weeks with many lows in the 40s F. Most of next week will be dry and sunny. There will be increasing chances for showers by late Wednesday and into Thursday.

 Some Climate Highlights of the Year 2024 So Far:

-warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in state history. The three months averaged over 14°F above normal on a statewide basis, golf courses open at least one-day in every month.

-the warm winter also included the warmest January 31st in state history when MSP and St Cloud both reached 55°F and Marshall reached 61°F, with citizens taking their lunch outside to enjoy the fresh air.

-the mild winter also produced a record or near-record low amount of seasonal snowfall for many areas of the state. Most of the seasonal snowfall in many places either came on Valentine’s Day or the two winter storms in March (Mar 21-22, or Mar 23-27). Twin Cities ended up with a seasonal total of 29.5 inches, but places like Austin, St James, St Peter, and Mankato ended up with less than 15 inches.

-Then, unexpectedly after 3 years of drought, Minnesota recorded the wettest April-June period in state history, with a statewide average rainfall of over 15.25 inches. The frequency of rainfall was especially notable as many climate stations reported at least a trace of rain on over half of the days during the 3-month period. Farmers had to cope with wet soils, ponded fields, and in some cases eroded fields. There were many fields replanted.

-Summer rains have continued to hammer parts of Minnesota with frequent and significant rainfalls. Since the start of the 2024 growing season there have been 235 new daily rainfall records set within the Minnesota historical climate network, including many 3 and 4 inch daily rainfall amounts.

-The end result of the frequent and significant rainfalls since April is that 97 percent of the state has seen above normal precipitation for the year, and we are on a pace to record perhaps the wettest year in state history. Wells (Faribault County), Elgin (Wabasha County) and Faribault (Rice County) have all recorded over 40 inches already this year, with over 4 months to go.r

State Fair Climate:

The Minnesota State Fair starts its 12-day run on August 22 concluding on Labor Day, September 2nd this year. The DNR-Minnesota State Climatology Office web site features a wealth of historical information about the State Fair, along with details about weather history during the Fair.

A few details from State Fair Weather History:
Highest maximum temperature was 104°F on September 10, 1931
Lowest maximum temperature was 52°F on September 7, 1911
Lowest morning temperature was 33°F on September 13, 1890
Second coldest morning was 36°F on September 1, 1974
Most number of 90°F days, six, was in 2013
On average it rains 3 or 4 days during the 12-day run of the Fair
The driest State Fair was in 2023 when only a trace of rain fell over the 12 days
The wettest State Fair was in 1977 when 9.48 inches of rain fell
Wettest evening at the State Fair, August 30, 1977 when 4.06 inches of rain fell
On August 31, 1989 golf ball size hail fell on the Fairgrounds during the afternoon

I will be at the State Fair on two dates this year, both times at the MPR stage located at the corner of Judson and Nelson. On August 23 (Friday) from 11am to noon I will be a guest on TPT Almanac program. Then on August 28 (Wednesday) Cathy Wurzer and I will be on from noon to 1pm for the Minnesota Now Program and share the 28th Annual State Fair Weather Quiz. If you plan to attend the State Fair please drop by if you can.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

This week the United Kingdom Meteorological Office released a synopsis from the State of the Climate Report which they coordinate with NOAA. Some of the major findings include:

- Earth’s greenhouse gas concentrations were the highest on record during 2023. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached their highest measured atmospheric concentrations during the year.

- 2023 was the warmest year since records began in the mid-1800s, surpassing the previous record set in 2016.

- The highest average annual global sea-surface temperature was recorded during 2023

- Ocean heat content – the measure of heat from the sea surface to a depth of two kilometres – was the highest on record.

- The average global sea level in 2023 was the highest on record for the twelfth successive year.

- Antarctic sea ice reached an all-time record low during 2023

This week the CBC in Canada featured an article about the world’s most effective climate policies when it comes to reducing emissions and slowing the pace of climate change. The article is comprehensive in looking at a wide range of countries and economies. The authors looked at 63 successful policies, including carbon pricing and incentives to reduce emissions. There is not one method that fits all countries, but the article is quite work reading

MPR listener question:

Out here in Traverse County at Wheaton, we are experiencing a very cool month of August, nearly 3.5°F cooler than average so far. This is contrary to the heat and humidity we so vividly remember from recent summers. We are a bit worried about our late planted corn crop reaching maturity before frost. Can you tell us how long it has been since we had a cooler than normal August?

Answer:

Actually, over the past 15 years, Wheaton has reported a cooler August than this year only twice, in 2017 and 2019. The coolest August of historical record was 20 years ago in 2004 when the month was nearly 8.5°F cooler than normal. August of 2004 brought only 4 days of 80°F temperatures and tens days when the maximum air temperature was 68°F or less. BTW it appears that the balance of the month, as well as early September should bring daily temperatures closer to normal for you in Traverse County helping your corn crop mature.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 23rd:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 80 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 62 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 23rd:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 97 degrees F in 1948; lowest daily maximum temperature of 57 degrees F in 1890; lowest daily minimum temperature of 42 degrees F in 1891; highest daily minimum temperature of 77 degrees F in 1948, and record precipitation of 1.43 inches in 1899. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for August 23rd is 58°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 78°F in 2023 and the minimum dew point on this date is 32 degrees F in 1927.

All-time state records for August 23rd:

The state record high temperature for this date is 104 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1922. The state record low temperature for this date is 25 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1977. The state record precipitation for this date is 5.82 inches at Remer (Cass County) in 1978. There has been no snowfall on this date.

Past Weather:

Slow-moving thunderstorms brought heavy rains to many parts of Minnesota on August 23 of 1870. There were few climate stations in Minnesota back then, but some observers reported 3 to 4 inches of rainfall, while observers in Sibley and Brown Counties reported over 5 inches. The Minnesota River rose several feet as a result of the storm.

Summertime heat prevailed on August 23 of 1922 as over 50 counties saw the afternoon temperature reach 90°F or greater. In western Minnesota, Fergus Falls, Wheaton, and Beardsley saw temperatures break 100°F.

A cold Canadian air mass covered the state on the morning of August 23 in 1940 and brought frost to 14 northern Minnesota counties. Climate stations in Cook, Lake, St Louis, Koochiching, Itasca, and Carleton Counties reported low temperatures in the twenties. The daytime high temperature at Itasca State Park only reached 52°F.

Outlook:

Warming temperatures over the weekend, with a small chance for showers Sunday night and Monday in northern areas. Temperatures will remain above average and then begin to cool down by Wednesday of next week. There will be an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms by late Wednesday through Friday of next week.