WeatherTalk Blog

Near record warmth, followed by widespread, welcome rains:

Last weekend was by far the best weather of the year so far, with warm temperatures, bright, sunny skies, and comfortable humidity. Temperatures rose above forecasted highs on Saturday (April 13), and though a few degrees cooler on Sunday, temperatures remained quite comfortable for outdoor activities. A few long-term climate stations reported new record daily high temperatures over the weekend. Some of these included:

89°F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County)
88°F at Milan (Chippewa County)
87°F at Winnebago (Faribault County)
85°F at Litchfield (Meeker County)
83°F at Wheaton (Traverse County)
76°F at Cass Lake (Cass County)

Following the warm weekend, a large area of low pressure brought showers and thunderstorms to most of the state over Tuesday and Wednesday, providing good, soaking rains to many areas that needed it. Rainfall amounts in the north were generally less than an inch, but many observers in central and southern Minnesota reported rainfall between 1 and 2 inches. Some long-term climate stations even reported new daily record rainfall amounts. Some examples:

Redwood Falls (Redwood County) 2.23 inches
St Peter (Nicollet County) 2.02 inches
Kimball (Stearns County) and Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) 1.80 inches
Milan (Chippewa County) 1.68 inches
Spring Valley (Fillmore County) 1.66 inches
Long Prairie (Todd County) 1.62 inches
Waseca (Waseca County) 1.44 inches
La Crescent Dam (Winona County) 1.42 inches
MSP (Hennepin County) 1,.33 inches
Morris (Stevens County) 1,32 inches

Though not evident in the current Drought Map for Minnesota that still shows 44 percent of the state in Moderate to Severe Drought (because of cut-off dates used in the analysis) the significant rains of April 16-17 will undoubtedly help mitigate the drought situation and assist soil moisture replenishment before farmers begin spring planting. Speaking of planting, it appears that temperatures will rebound after this weekend to above normal levels for the remainder of the month, but there will also be more frequent chances for rain as well. So farmers will have to work in their crop seeding between rainy periods.

Winds continued to blow with above normal intensity over the past week. Many climate stations have reported over 10 days so far this month with wind gusts over 30 mph, and some days with 40 mph and 50 mph gusts. Some examples:

MSP 15 days
St James (Brown County) 15 days
Rochester (Olmsted County) 13 days
Windom (Cottonwood County) 13 days
Redwood Falls (Redwood County) 12 days
Mankato (Blue Earth County) 11 days

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC reported this week that northern portions of the United Arab Emirates, including the Dubai International Airport were inundated on Wednesday (April 17) by record-setting rains. Some areas reported over 9 inches of rain, causing widespread flash flooding. The Dubai Airport reported 290 flight cancellations and over 400 flight delays. Average total rainfall in Dubai is only about 0.30 inches, while average annual rainfall is 3.81 inches.

A recent article in the journal Nature documents estimates of the economic impact of continued climate change impacts through the year 2050 based on trends of the most recent 40 years. The authors conclude that “even if CO2 emissions were to be drastically cut down starting today, the world economy is already committed to an income reduction of 19 % until 2050 due to climate change.” The potential loss to the global economy far outweighs the cost of mitigating climate change now.

In this week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin there is an article about the National Interagency Fire Center outlook for the coming wildfire season in the USA. Because of a dry winter and lack of snow cover, the spring wildfire season in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin is expected to be busy. The authors mention that fire managers have already responded to 165 fires in Minnesota, and 342 wildfires have already burned in Wisconsin.

MPR listener question:

It appears that the 2023-2024 snow season is behind us. We wondered was there any place in Minnesota that got near normal snowfall? If not, where were the greatest amounts?

Answer:

Virtually every climate observer I can find in Minnesota has reported below normal snowfall for the 2023-2024 season. In fact, record low amounts for some locations (Winnebago in Faribault County only reported 8.1 inches for the season). The only areas of the state to receive more than 50 inches this season are northwest of Two Harbors (Lake County), near International Falls in Koochiching County, and at Cook (in central St Louis County). Their totals were still well below normal, most of the snow coming in January and March.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 19th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 58 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 19th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees F in 1985; lowest daily maximum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1928; lowest daily minimum temperature of 19 degrees F in 1928; highest daily minimum temperature of 67 degrees F in 1985, and record precipitation of 1.28 inches in 1871. There was a record 1.2 inches of snowfall in 1982.

Average dew point for April 19th is 35°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 62°F in 1957; and the minimum dew point on this date is 6 degrees F in 1988.

All-time state records for April 19th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 95 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County), Lamberton (Redwood County), and Springfield (Brown County) in 1985. The state record low temperature for this date is -3 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1897. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.87 inches at New Richland (Waseca County) in 1916. The state snowfall record is 25.0 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 2013.

Past Weather:

With several inches of snow still on the ground in northern Minnesota, many citizens awoke to record-setting low temperatures on April 19, 1928. Seventeen counties reported morning lows in the single digits, and it was 0°F at Fosston (Polk County). In many other communities lows were in the teens. The afternoon high temperature was only 26°F at Wadena.

The warmest April 19th occurred in 1985 when much of the southern half of Minnesota saw afternoon temperatures of 80°F or higher. Observers in 20 counties reported high temperatures in the 90s F.

A late season snowstorm brought heavy snows to most of Minnesota over April 18-19 if 2013. Many climate stations reported from 9 to 18 inches of snow. Portions of St Louis and Lake counties reported over 20 inches of snow. Many daily snowfall records were set around the state.

Outlook:

The weekend will start cooler than normal and breezy, but with mostly sunny skies. There will be chance for frost each night. Temperatures will warm Sunday and Monday, but with increased cloudiness and a chance for showers. Then generally above normal temperatures next week, but with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rain and warmth prevail this week:A dose of welcome rain came this week or April 7-8. It was nearly ideal, as the rainfall rates closely matched the infiltration rates of most Minnesota soils, so that the soils absorbed nearly all of the moisture. Total rainfall was generally less than an inch in many northern areas, but elsewhere many observers reported over 1 inch of rainfall. A few places reported between 1.25 and 1.50 inches. Milaca (Mille Lacs County) in central Minnesota reported a new daily record rainfall of 1.23 inches on April 8th.

Despite these beneficial rains, the state drought status remained about the same this week, with about 44 percent of the state landscape in either Moderate or Severe Drought (most of the counties are in north-central, extreme northwest, or southeast sections of the state). With soils drying out and warming up, farmers are expected to begin planting crops full throttle sometime next week, unless interrupted by the rains coming on Tuesday.

Following the rains of April 7th and 8th the weather warmed significantly with daily high temperatures in the 60s and 70s F. Twenty-three central and southern Minnesota counties saw temperatures top 70°F on Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to dip a few degrees cooler than normal next week for a few days, but no major cold snap is foreseen.

One of the features of the weather that has been rather constant is the wind, with many climate stations reporting several days that brought gusts of 30 mph or greater. Some examples:

Moorhead, Duluth, Mankato, and Redwood Falls report 6 days
Rochester reports 8 days
MSP reports 9 days.

Some have reported peak gusts between 45 and 55 mph. It will likely continue to be a windy month, as the climate pattern transitions towards summary and more severe weather threats materialize.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features a study of the annual carbon budget of the continent of Africa. A research team of scientists found that “between 2010 and 2019, Africa transitioned from being a slight net carbon sink to a slight net carbon source.” This is due to a variety of factors, including increased population, expansion of agriculture lands and livestock grazing, as well as increased fossil fuel use.

For those who need to review Severe Weather protocols and procedures, you can visit the NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office (Chanhassen) web site and find useful information there related to tornadoes, flash floods, lightning, hail, and extreme heat. It is worth a read.

This week the Weather Underground provided a synopsis of the weakening El Nino episode and the expected development of La Nina later this summer and fall. This will likely have little effect on the coming summer climate for Minnesota but may affect the fall and winter later this year.
MPR listener question: I believe the soil needs to be 50 degrees or warmer to plant grass seed. What air temperatures do we need to sustain and for how long before the soil is warm enough for seed?
Answer: Good timing for this question to be asked, although I would remind this listener that the best time to seed new grass is historically August and September, so that it can become established during the cool down of the fall season. But if you need to seed in the spring, according to our soil temperature network of observers around Minnesota, including the University of Minnesota Outreach Centers, the 2- inch and 4-inch soil temperature daily maxima just surpassed 50°F this week. University of Minnesota Extension recommends that a 50°F soil temperature threshold is suitable to plant fescue and Kentucky bluegrass varieties. Further, this level of daily soil temperature will easily be maintained as long as daily air temperatures exceed 60°F, which they are expected to do in the coming days. There will be a few days next week that daily temperatures will probably only reach the 50s F, but then the balance of the month should bring many days of 60°F temperatures. Grass seed can lay dormant for several days until temperatures warm up as well, so I think it is probably safe to start your spring grass seeding soon. Once planted, remember to water lightly, but frequently until the grass establishes.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 12th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 36 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 12th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 88 degrees F in 2023; lowest daily maximum temperature of 28 degrees F in 1950; lowest daily minimum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1941, and record precipitation of 0.67 inches in 1983. There was a record 6.6 inches of snowfall in 1920.

Average dew point for April 12th is 31°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 61°F in 1941; and the minimum dew point on this date is -1 degrees F in 1950.

All-time state records for April 12th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 90 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) and Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1931 and again at Mankato (Blue Earth County), Winona (Winona County), and Austin (Mower County) in 2023. The state record low temperature for this date is -7 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1924. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.74 inches at Grand Meadow (Mower County) in 2001. The state snowfall record is 17.6 inches also at Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) in 2019.

Past Weather: April 12 of 1950 brought a taste of mid-winter weather with morning lows ranging from the single digits to the teens in most locations. Eight northern Minnesota counties reported subzero morning low temperatures, and the afternoon high temperature at Red Lake Falls only reached 19°F.

A complex winter storm brought lightning, thunder, rain, freezing rain, sleet, and heavy snow to much of Minnesota over April 10-12 of 2019. High winds knocked out power to about 100,000 customers, and heavy snows over 12 inches occurred in the north. Blizzard warnings were issued for some western parts of the state.

The only two times in state history that 85°F to 90°F temperatures have occurred on April 12th in Minnesota were in 1931 and 2023 (last year). In 1931 it was so warm on this date that many communities saw overnight low temperatures remain in the mid to upper 50s F. The same pattern prevailed last year.

Outlook: Sunny, breezy, and very warm over the weekend, with a slight chance for showers in the north later on Saturday. Continued warmer than normal on Monday, but with increasing cloudiness and a chance for rain late in the day. Chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, then much cooler for Thursday and Friday.

April starts out windy, with snow for some:A strong winter storm grazed southeastern Minnesota over April 2-3 earlier this week, bringing 1 to 3 inches of snow across parts of seven counties. Caledonia (Houston County) reported a record 3.7 inches, while Grand Meadow (Mower County) reported a record 2.5 inches. Another observer in southern Houston County reported 7.5 inches. Some of the heaviest loads of snow from this storm were recorded in Wisconsin. On April 2nd, several climate stations reported record daily snowfalls, including:
5.1 inches at Green Bay
7.1 inches at Rhinelander
11.8 inches at La Crosse
And for April 3rd some record daily snowfall amounts included
7.8 inches at Appleton
9.0 inches at Arlington (north of Madison, WI)
9.0 inches at La Farge
5.8 inches at Oshkosh

Marquette, MI in the Upper Peninsula reported 14 inches of snowfall from this storm on April 3rd which was a new daily record there as well.

April is also living up to its reputation as the windiest month of the year in Minnesota. Through the first four days of the month most climate stations have reported higher than normal daily wind speeds, and most have reported wind gusts of 30 mph or greater. Here is a sampling:
Rochester, four days with wind gusts of 30 mph or greater, maximum gust 59 mph
MSP, three days with wind gusts of 30 mph or greater, maximum gust 44 mph
Grand Marais, three days with wind gust of 30 mph or greater, maximum gust 45 mph
Grand Portage, three days with wind gust of 30 mph or greater, maximum gust 44 mph
Isle Royale on Lake Superior has reported three days of 30 mph wind gusts with a max of 49 mph too.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: The Weather Underground reported that according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts March was the warmest in history globally speaking. This marked the 10 consecutive month setting a new global monthly temperature record, a very disturbing sign for what might be in store for the year 2024.

In this week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin there is a feature article about increased variability and the impact of extreme winter weather (snowfalls) on the Sierra Nevada Range in California. This impacts the uncertainty in dealing with expected snowpack and water supplies. California State Climatologist Michael Anderson comments.

MPR listener question: We have always been awed by some of the historical comparisons you have spoken about when it comes to weather and climate in Minnesota, especially some of the stories from the 19th Century. What are some of the oldest climate records in our state?

Answer: Believe it or not Fort Snelling climate records go back to 1819, and a few Smithsonian climate observer records go back to the 1850s. In addition, a number of Army Signal Corps climate records go back to 1871. Continuous daily climate records for some stations are well over 125 years old. Some examples:
Albert Lea (Freeborn County) 1885-present
Alexandria (Douglas County) 1886-present
Brainerd (Crow Wing County) 1887-present
Collegeville (Stearns County) 1892-present
Duluth (St Louis County) 1871-present
Faribault (Rice County) 1890-present
Crookston (Polk County) 1890-present
Milan (Chippewa County) 1893-present
MSP (Hennepin County) 1871-present
Montevideo (Lac Qui Parle Count) 1889-present
Morris (Stevens County) 1885-present
Park Rapids (Hubbard County) 1885-present
Leech Lake (Cass County) 1887-present
Redwood Falls (Redwood County) 1892-present
Rochester (Olmsted County) 1886-present
St Cloud (Stearns County) 1893-present
Spring Valley (Fillmore County) 1886-present

Without these historical data, much of Minnesota’s weather history would be unknown.
Twin Cities Almanac for April 5th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 52 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 5th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 85 degrees F in 2021; lowest daily maximum temperature of 29 degrees F in 1982; lowest daily minimum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1979; highest daily minimum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1921, and record precipitation of 0.91 inches in 1999. There was a record 1.5 inches of snowfall in 1964.

Average dew point for April 5th is 27°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 60°F in 1929; and the minimum dew point on this date is -2 degrees F in 1979.

All-time state records for April 5th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 88 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1991 and at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) and Redwood Falls (Redwood County) in 2021. The state record low temperature for this date is -18 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1936. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.95 inches at Pigeon River (Cook County) in 1933. The state snowfall record is 28.0 inches also at Pigeon River (Cook County) in 1933.
Past Weather: A late winter type of storm brought record-setting heavy snow to northern Minnesota on April 5, 1933. Many observers reported 8 to 17 inches of snowfall, while Pigeon River (Cook County) reported 28 inches, the most snow ever measured on one day in the month of April anywhere in Minnesota!

With snow on the ground, April 5th of 1936 felt like mid-winter in northern Minnesota. Seven northern counties reported subzero morning temperatures. The afternoon high at Angus (Polk County) only reached 20°F.

April 5th in 2021 brought summertime temperatures to many parts of Minnesota. Climate observers in 35 counties reported afternoon high temperatures of 80°F or greater. After a morning low of 35°F Wabasha County saw an afternoon high of 82°F.

Outlook:
Sunny, breezy, and warmer than normal temperatures on Saturday with increasing cloudiness in the southern part of the state and a chance for rain developing. More widespread rains on Sunday, with cooler temperatures as well. Continued chance for rain on Monday, and then warmer temperatures for the balance of next week, with slight chances for rain at Wednesday and Thursday.

Preliminary Climate Summary for March:What a month! Completely different weather patterns prevailed for the first half versus the second half of the month. Warm and dry the first half, followed by cool and wet the second half. Overall, most climate stations will report a mean monthly temperature that ranges from 2°F to 5°F above normal. Extremes for the month were 78°F at Theilman (Wabasha County) on the 4th to -20°F at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) on March 1st (the coldest day of the month).

During the first half of the month temperatures average 10°F to 14°F above normal, while 196 daily maximum temperature records were set or tied, along with 34 warm daily minimum temperature records within the state climate network. Many climate stations reported daytime highs from the upper 50s to low 70s F and there were reports of many ice-out dates on area lakes. Conversely, during the second half of March temperatures averaged 5°F to 8°F colder than normal, though no new daily cold temperature records were set.

Moisture-wise, the first half of March was very dry, with many climate stations reporting zero precipitation and drought worsening in the state. The second half of the month brought measurable precipitation on several days, especially with back-to-back winter storms during March 21-27. Except for portions of northwestern and north-central Minnesota, most climate stations will report monthly precipitation between 1.50 and 2.50 inches. A few places will report over 3 inches. For monthly total snowfall most observers report between 6 inches and 16 inches. High end amounts include nearly 25 inches at New Hope (Hennepin County) and 23 inches near Two Harbors, while low end amounts include just 1.4 inches at Lake Bronson (Kittson County) and 3.3 inches at Georgetown (Clay County). During the wet second half of the month 56 daily snowfall records were set or tied within the state climate network, while 36 daily precipitation (liquid) records were reported.

Winds were stronger than normal during March, with many climate stations reporting wind gusts of 30 mph or greater on 14 days or more. Some examples include:

MSP and Rochester 17 days
Moorhead and Duluth 15 days
Brainerd 14 days

Undoubtedly the most significant weather event of the month was the slow-moving, large, and complex winter storm system of March 24-27. This storm brought snow, rain, freezing rain, and sleet over 3 plus days, causing numerous flight delays and traffic accidents. One of the unusual characteristics of the storm was the sequence of light rain, followed by snow, followed by heavy snow, followed by heavier rains, followed by sleet, followed by lighter but persistent snowfall. Each day of the storm produced wind gusts of 30 mph or greater. MSP reported a new daily record snowfall amount on the 24th with 8.2 inches, and then the next day, March 25th, a new daily record precipitation amount (mostly rainfall) of 0.78 inches. Many climate observers reported 7 to 14 inches of snowfall from this storm, which produced a liquid equivalent precipitation from 1.50 to 2.50 inches.

The DNR-State Climatology Office features a comprehensive look at this long-duration winter storm, with the snowfall and rainfall amounts fully documented.

This was much needed over most of the Minnesota landscape, helping to alleviate the drought condition, especially in the southern half of the state. Areas of Moderate to Severe Drought which were nearly 75 percent in the state last week were reduced to just 43 percent this week. The only major agricultural area of the state that missed out on this significant storm was the Red River Valley in northwestern Minnesota.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: This week the Weather Underground web site offers a look at weather prospects for the total eclipse of the sun on April 8th. They examine both the historical and some of the expected sky conditions across the country for that date. It is interesting to note that although the path of totality for this eclipse appears to be relatively narrow, there is expected to be up to 60 to 80 percent coverage across Minnesota. Providing partial path viewing.

This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin also features a comprehensive look at the scientific perspectives on solar eclipses. Three total solar eclipses have occurred since 2017, and this one on April 8th will undoubtedly be the most widely viewed and documented.

The United Kingdom Meteorological Office reviewed weather and climate reports from the World Meteorological Organization in 2023 to expand on the most significant climate anomalies during the year and found five features:

Warmest year on record globally since 1850
Record loss of Antarctic sea-ice
Record widespread ocean heat content
Record pace of glacial retreat, especially in western North America and Europe

You can find more at the UK Met Office web site.

MPR listener question: I live on Walker Lake in Otter Tail County, land of 1,048 lakes. The ice was completely gone off the lake on Sunday, March 17th. The earliest I have ever seen ice off conditions. A week later on March 24, 2024, the lake was completely frozen over again. My question is, has that ever happened anywhere in the State of Minnesota?

Answer: The DNR-State Climatology Office does not have a long-term record for your Walker Lake, but they do for nearby Otter Tail Lake and other surrounding lakes. Lake ice-out criteria vary from lake to lake, but the historical records show that ice-out has occurred in some years on some lakes and is then followed by a cold spell of weather which re-freezes the lake (1910, 1938, 1945, 1973, and 2000 are some example years). However, the refreezing is short-lived and does not really alter the declared ice-out date which relates to the end of a prolonged period of seasonal ice cover.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 29th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 48 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 29th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1986; lowest daily maximum temperature of 13 degrees F in 1969; lowest daily minimum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1969; highest daily minimum temperature of 57 degrees F in 1910, and record precipitation of 0.79 inches in 1998. There was a record 11.0 inches of snowfall in 1924.

Average dew point for March 29th is 25°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 56°F in 1910; and the minimum dew point on this date is -13 degrees F in 1969.

All-time state records for March 29th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at Winona (Winona County) in 1910, Walker (Cass County) in 1946, the Twin Cities area in 1986, and Milan (Chippewa County) in 2021. The state record low temperature for this date is -23 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1921. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.88 inches at Lake City (Wabasha County) in 1998. The state snowfall record is 17.5 inches at Maple Plaine (Hennepin County) in 1924.
Past Weather: Perhaps the coldest March 29 in state history occurred in 1969 when nearly all climate stations reported subzero low temperatures in the morning. Temperatures ranged from -2°F at Austin (Mower County) to -21°F at Ada (Norman County). The afternoon high temperature at Morris (Stevens County) only reached 1°F.

The warmest March 29 in state history was in 1986 when many high temperature records were set. Much of the state saw afternoon highs reach the 70s F, while at least 15 counties reported a temperature of 80°F or greater.

The greatest March tornado outbreak in Minnesota history took place on March 29 of 1998. Fourteen tornadoes were reported, with two fatalities confirmed. Most of the tornadoes tracked from southwestern Minnesota toward the Wisconsin boarder. One of the largest tornadoes (up to 1.25 miles in diameter) was rated EF-4 and had a path length of 67 miles. The communities of Comfrey and St Peter were hit especially hard with lots of damage. More historical detail about these storms is available from the DNR-State Climatology Office.

Outlook: The weekend will start with near normal temperatures most places and a slight chance for snow in northern counties. Warming temperatures on Sunday with an increasing chance for rain/snow showers late in the day and continuing into Monday mostly in the southern half of the state. Then mostly dry and sunny for the balance of next week with temperatures warming to above normal values.

March delivers two distinct patterns of weather:
With a clear and evident change in the weather expected to dominate the second half of March, we will historically describe this month having two distinct and opposite weather patterns. Through the first 16 days, warm and dry, with temperatures averaging from 12°F to 14°F above normal around the state. On a statewide basis this marks the 2nd warmest first half of March in history, trailing only 2016 by half a degree. In addition, the first half of March was exceptionally dry, with many climate observers reporting zero precipitation. The statewide average precipitation was only 0.08 inches, marking the 2nd driest first half of March in history (first half of March only delivered 0.02 inches of precipitation statewide in 1910).

Conversely the second half of this March will clearly be wetter (snowy) and cooler than normal. Since the 16th many northern climate stations have reported morning low temperatures in the single digits (Baudette reported just 1°F on Wednesday, March 20th). Ten day forecast guidance suggests that the balance of the month will see temperatures that average between 6°F and 9°F below normal. The other weather feature change is more snow and rain for the balance of the4 month. In fact, many places are likely to see a month’s worth of precipitation (1.5 to 2.0 inches) over the next week, much in the form of heavy, wet snow.

One feature of the March weather that will remain rather constant is higher than normal wind speeds. Many climate stations have already reported 10 or more days with wind gusts over 30 mph, including:

Brainerd 10 days
Duluth 11 days
Moorhead 11 days
Redwood Falls 11 days
MSP 13 days
Rochester 14 days

According to forecast guidance, there will be several more days this month with wind gusts of 30 mph or greater. Perhaps March will be even windier than April (normally our windiest month) this year.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: Earlier this week Aljazeera reported on the record Heat Wave that blanketed parts of Brazil. The Heat Index values (effect of temperature and humidity) ranged from 120°F to 140°F. In fact a record high Heat Index of 144°F was reported from Rio de Janeiro on Sunday, March 17th. Air temperatures were over 100°F but with dew points in the mid to upper 80s F. Citizens flocked to the Ipanema and Copacabana beaches seeking some relief in the ocean waters. Fortunately, rain was expected this weekend with cooler temperatures.

Speaking of Heat Index Values, a recent paper published in Environmental Research Letters documents that climate change is provoking an even larger rise in Heat Index Values than air temperature values. The interaction of air temperature and atmospheric water vapor is changing with climate change, especially in certain landscapes. A case study of the changing climate in Texas showed that summer Heat Index Values there have changed as much as 8°F to 11°F since the 1970s.

This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features an interesting article (published in Science) about the declining seasonal variability in flow volume of northern hemisphere watersheds (north of 50 degrees latitude). This is due to climate change modifying the seasonality of moisture deposition on the landscape. “In northern North America, about 40% of gauge stations showed decreasing seasonality. In southern Siberia, the number was 32%, whereas in northern Europe, about 19% of gauge stations showed decreasing seasonality.”

MPR listener question: I heard that we may get from 8 inches to 12 inches of snowfall in western Minnesota this Sunday and Monday. We live in Fergus Falls and we are wondering what our record snowfalls are for March 24 and March 25. Thought you might know.
Answer: Yes, the National Weather Service is suggesting that March 24-25 could bring the most snowfall of the entire snow season to many places, perhaps doubling the seasonal snowfall total for some. Your climate records at Fergus Falls go back to 1892. Snowfall record for March 24 is 12.0 inches in 1975. The snowfall record for March 25th is 10.2 inches in 1927. I doubt that these records will be broken by this storm, but you never know.

BTW the statewide record snowfall for March 24 is 15.0 inches at Winona and Bird Island in 1937 and at Waseca in 1966. The corresponding record for March 25th is 14.0 inches at Bemidji in 1914. You can see if these records fall.
Twin Cities Almanac for March 22nd: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 22nd:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 71 degrees F in 1945; lowest daily maximum temperature of 10 degrees F in 1888; lowest daily minimum temperature of -14 degrees F in 1888; highest daily minimum temperature of 56 degrees F in 2012, and record precipitation of 1.40 inches in 1952. There was a record 13.7 inches of snowfall also in 1952.

Average dew point for March 22nd is 23°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 60°F in 2012; and the minimum dew point on this date is -10 degrees F in 1974.

All-time state records for March 22nd:
The state record high temperature for this date is 81 degrees F at Pipestone (Pipestone County) in 1939. The state record low temperature for this date is -30 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1888. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.00 inches at Elk River (Sherburne County) in 1865. The state snowfall record is 14.6 inches at Fairmont (Martin County) also in 1952.

Past Weather: The coldest March 22nd was in 1888, as nearly all locations in Minnesota reported subzero morning low temperatures. In central and northern Minnesota, low temperatures ranged from -20°F to -30°F. With nearly a foot of snow on the ground, the afternoon high temperature at Rochester only reached -6°F.

March 22nd in 1939 was the warmest in state history, with 21 counties reporting afternoon temperatures of 70°F or greater. After a morning low of 26°F, Windom saw an afternoon high of 80°F, under bright sunshine and with moderate south winds.

A major winter storm brought a mixture of rain, sleet and snow to parts of southern and central Minnesota over the weekend of March 22-23 of 1952. Many climate stations reported 10 to 17 inches of snowfall. There were a number of road closures in southern counties.
Outlook:
Generally cloudy, with cooler than normal temperatures over the weekend. Chances for linger snow early on Saturday over southern sections of the state. Increasing cloudiness late Saturday and into Sunday with chances for significant snowfall mixed with rain in some areas. Many areas of central and southern Minnesota will see over 6 inches of snowfall, and some areas could get a foot. There will be continuing chances for precipitation through Tuesday of next week, then more settle weather will also bring warmer temperatures.

Warm temperatures continue, drought worsens:
Since last Friday, March 8th, fifteen more record daily high temperature records have been set in the Minnesota climate station network. Most of these occurred over March 10 and 11. Some of these included 75°F at Milan (Chippewa County), 74°F at Rochester (Olmsted County), and 73°F at Redwood Falls (Redwood County). The Twin Cities also set a record high on March 11 with a reading of 68°F.

Through the first half of March, there have been 115 record high daily temperature records set or tied in the state. Average temperatures for the month so far are running 11°F to 15°F above normal. Even with some cooler than normal temperature expected over the next 10 days, March is highly likely to end up as another warmer than normal month.

An interesting note about drought: By the end of a record-setting wet month of December, 2023 the area of Minnesota designated to be in Moderate Drought or worse was about 40 percent, but so far the first few months of 2024 have been dry enough that the area of the state currently in Moderate Drought or worse is nearly 75 percent. Most areas of the state have received little precipitation this month so far, with only a few places reporting over a quarter of an inch. This is undoubtedly a worrisome trend as lake levels are down, watershed flow volumes are down, soil moisture is down, and fire danger is up. However, it is yet early enough in the spring, that a turn to a wetter weather pattern could be highly beneficial before the spring planting season begins.

Anniversary of remarkable temperature change....
On this date in 1897, Detroit Lakes in Becker County reported a morning low of -43 degrees F, but by the next afternoon, less than 36 hours later, on March 16 the temperature was 45 degrees F, a rise of 88 degrees F! Typical March in Minnesota!

Weekly Weather Potpourri:
This week the BBC reported on “Zombie fires” which continue to burn throughout Canada even during the winter with heavy snow cover and subzero temperatures. These fires are hidden, burning dry materials under the snow and dead surface vegetation. They can smolder over the winter and then turn into major fires during the spring and summer. There are perhaps 150 “Zombie fires” currently burning in Canada, and many are being extinguished before the start of spring.

After digesting and analyzing all of the climate data for December though February, NOAA scientists announced last week the across the USA it was the warmest meteorological winter in 129 years. Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Vermont and Wisconsin each had their warmest winter on record. Twenty-six additional states saw their top-10 warmest winters on record.

Dr. Anthony Hanson with the University of Minnesota Extension has evaluated this winter weather in the context of the impacts on major insect species that affect agriculture. He writes an interesting analysis that is worth reading. For example, the winter mortality on soybean aphid is likely to be quite low this year, and therefore soybean growers may wish to plant more aphid resistant varieties as they consider planting options this spring. He shares many other perspectives on corn rootworm, alfalfa weevil, potato leafhopper and other species to be on the watch for this coming season. His blog can be found under Minnesota Crop News.

MPR listener question:
Here in Long Prairie (Todd County) we have had no measurable precipitation through the first have of the month! Have we ever had no precipitation at all in the month of March?

Answer:
Yes, only one time. There was no measurable precipitation in Todd County during March of 1895. You are not alone in this designation. In March of 1895 observers in New London (Kandiyohi County), Beardsley (Big Stone County), and Alexandria (Douglas County) also reported no precipitation. There have also been other years when March brought no precipitation to some other parts of the state.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 15th:
The average MSP high temperature for this date is 41 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 15th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 70 degrees F in 2015; lowest daily maximum temperature of 8 degrees F in 1900; lowest daily minimum temperature of -7 degrees F in 1897; highest daily minimum temperature of 45 degrees F in 2016, and record precipitation of 0.85 inches in 1945. There was a record 5.0 inches of snowfall in 1899.

Average dew point for March 15th is 20°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 52°F in 2003; and the minimum dew point on this date is -11 degrees F in 1979.

All-time state records for March 15th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 80 degrees F at Waseca (Waseca County) in 1927. The state record low temperature for this date is -49 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1897. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.93 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1971. The state snowfall record is 21.0 inches at Isabella (Lake County) also in 1971.

Past Weather:
The coldest March 15 in state history was in 1897. Virtually all areas of the state recorded subzero temperatures with many areas reporting morning lows of -30°F or colder. With abundant snow on the ground, the daytime high temperature at Crookston only reached -4°F.

On this date in 1941, one of the most sudden and severe blizzards in modern times struck North Dakota and Minnesota. The storm hit on a Saturday night while many were traveling, and thus claimed 71 lives. Winds gusts were of hurricane force. Grand Forks reported a gust of 85 mph, Fargo a gust of 74 mph, and Duluth a gust of 75 mph. Though snowfall amounts were generally modest, wind-driven snow drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Minnesota. Crookston in Polk County of the Red River Valley caught the most snow recording 12 inches. The associated cold front moved very rapidly, averaging 30 mph as it crossed Minnesota in just seven hours. The temperature dropped 18 degrees in 5 minutes when the storm hit the Duluth harbor. In the aftermath of this blizzard (and that of the Armistice Day Blizzard the previous November), the National Weather Service Office in Chicago relinquished forecast jurisdiction to the Minneapolis Office.

March 15 of 2012 was the warmest in history, with 15 counties reporting afternoon temperatures of 70°F or greater. It was 66°F as far north as Gunflint Lake.

Outlook:
Cooler and breezy over the weekend, as we embark on a downward trend in temperatures that is likely to bring some below normal values for the first time this month. There will be a chance for snow showers in the far north on Saturday and again Monday. Elsewhere it will be mostly a cool and dry week coming up.

March Warmth:The biggest weather headline this week occurred when March 3rd (Sunday) brought record-setting high temperatures to at least 60 Minnesota communities. Many observers reported afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s F. Some of the records included:

78°F at Theilman (Wabasha County) new statewide record for the date
75°F at Wells (Faribault County), Waseca (Waseca County), Austin (Mower County), and Hastings Dam (Dakota County)
74°F at MSP, Jordan (Scott County), Albert Lea (Freeborn County), Zumbrota (Goodhue County)
73°F at Caledonia (Houston County), Winnebago (Faribault County), Preston (Fillmore County)
72°F at Rochester, Grand Meadow (Mower County), Dodge Center (Dodge County)
71°F at Fairmont (Martin County), La Crescent (Winona County)
70°F at St Cloud and Elk River (Sherburne County)
65°F at Lamberton (Redwood County)

These were the warmest temperatures ever for so early in March.

Following the record warmth, very dry air arrived on Tuesday, March 5th as afternoon dew points were in the single digits and relative humidity ranged from just 15 to 18 percent in many areas of the state. In the dry air, daily temperatures reached the 50s F in many parts of the state after morning lows in the teens. The same wide swings in air temperature occurred on Wednesday, with afternoon highs in the 50s F and relative humidity ranging from just 15 to 20 percent. Redwood Falls reached 60°F with a relative humidity of just 21 percent. With wind gusts over 30 mph and dry air prevailing, the National Weather Service issued Red Flag Warnings for parts of Minnesota on both days.

Elsewhere this week, in northwestern and north-central Minnesota minor weather disturbances brought 1 to 3 inches of snowfall to places like Fergus Falls, Moorhead, Detroit Lakes, Park Rapids and Baudette.

All of the NOAA models continue to indicate that March will bring warmer than normal temperatures to Minnesota, as over 50 percent of the landscape remains in at least Moderate Drought. Drought area is likely to expand unless we start to get above normal rainfall this spring.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: The BBC reported this week that England and Wales recorded their warmest February in history. The United Kingdom as a whole recorded its 2nd warmest February in history. Four of the UK’s ten warmest Februarys have come in the last 6 years. The UK Met Office also reported that many areas reported a wetter than normal month of February, with some areas receiving 2.5 times normal rainfall.

For book lovers, the BBC Weather Watchers posted a fun quiz this week about the descriptive use of weather in class literature. It is fun to take the quiz and see how well versed you might be in class literature.

The Weather Underground reported this week that according to the European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) the Earth recorded its warmest February last month. This followed the warmest year on record, 2023. Many parts of North America also recorded their warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb).

MPR listener question: From a Twin Cities resident: How far south would we have to live to have the meteorological winter we just experienced be an “average” winter? What zone would that be, and when would the average last spring frost occur?
Answer: The Twin Cities recorded a meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in 2023-2024 that was totally record-setting in temperature, with a mean value of nearly 30°F (29.9°F), about 10-11°F about normal. This is equivalent to a normal winter at St Joseph, Missouri, about 425 miles south of the Twin Cities. According to the most recent USDA Plant Hardiness Zones, St Joseph, MO is zone 6a (annual extreme minimum temperature between -5°F and -10°F) for gardening and landscaping purposes. The average last spring frost date for St Joseph, MO is April 15th. (for the Twin Cities it is April 23).
Twin Cities Almanac for March 8th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 38 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 22 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 8th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 70 degrees F in 2016; lowest daily maximum temperature of 10 degrees F in 1932; lowest daily minimum temperature of -8 degrees F in 1877; highest daily minimum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1878 record precipitation of 0.94 inches in 1999. There was a record 12.5 inches of snowfall also in 1999.

Average dew point for March 8th is 15°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 57°F in 2000; and the minimum dew point on this date is -17 degrees F in 1967.

All-time state records for March 8th: The state record high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F at Amboy (Blue Earth County) in 2000. The state record low temperature for this date is -38 degrees F at McIntosh (Polk County) in 1908. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.22 inches at Breckenridge (Wilkin County) in 1878. The state snowfall record is 14.5 inches at Spring Grove (Houston County) in 1961.
Past Weather: Arctic air gripped the state on March 8 of 1943. Most places reported subzero morning low temperatures with minus 20s and minus 30s F. The daytime high temperature only reached 4°F at Detroit Lakes.

One of the snowiest periods ever in March occurred over the 4th through the 10th in 1961. Many areas reported from 1 foot to 2 feet of snowfall, with drifts up to 10 feet high. There were school closures on multiple days.

The warmest March 8th was in 1980 when dozens of communities reported afternoon high temperatures in the 70s F. The temperature surpassed 80°F in five southern Minnesota counties, and Winona reported a warm overnight low temperature of 60°F.
Outlook: Sunny over the weekend with temperatures on the rise. Well above normal temperatures by Monday through Wednesday of next week. Slight chance for rain later on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Climate Summary for February:A remarkable warm February this year brought only 2-3 days with colder than normal temperatures. The vast majority of days brought warmer than normal temperatures and on some days record-setting temperatures. Within the state climate station network, there were 221 daily high maximum temperature records set or tied, including many days with highs in the 50s and 60s F. A few stations even hit the 70°F mark. In addition to setting so many high daily maximum records, a number of days brought record-setting warm nights, with 208 daily warm minimum temperature records set or tied during the month. Contrary to our national reputation, Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states only once during February, and that was on the last day of the month, February 29th with -22°F reported from International Falls.

Overall, most Minnesota climate stations reported a mean monthly temperature that was from 12°F to 14°F above normal. This is rare territory statistically speaking, and over 20 long term climate stations so far have reported their warmest month of February in history, including MSP, St Cloud, Milan, Rochester, and Redwood Falls. International Falls was on track for its warmest February until back-to-back nighttime temperatures of -20°F and -22°F ended the month, offsetting much of the accumulated, record-setting warmth. They still ranked as the 3rd warmest February in history, It remains to be seen how the statewide ranking for February temperature historically comes out.

Moisture-wise, most areas of the state reported less than normal precipitation for the month of February. The statewide average precipitation in February was 0.55 inches, but a number of places reported over an inch, while Big Falls (Koochiching County) and Lake Wilson (Murray County) reported over 2 inches. In terms of monthly snowfall, International Falls and Warroad reported over 8 inches, while most of the rest of the state reported less than 5 inches. Valentine’ day brought record daily snowfalls to MSP (6.9”), Hastings Dam (5.2”), and Milan (5.0”). Then February 26th brought record snowfalls to Baudette (6.0”) and Warroad (5.0”). But, with persistent warm temperatures and many days bringing sunny skies, little snow cover persisted during the month.
Wrapping up meteorological winter (Dec-Feb):
With the very warm February to go along with the warmest December in state history, as well as a warmer than normal January, the meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) will go down as the warmest in state history without question, surpassing the old record set in the winter of 1997-1998 by roughly 2.0°F. MSP even surpassed the Pioneer Era record warm winter of 1877-1878. So far, over 65 long-term climate stations have officially reported 2023-2024 as their warmest winter in history.

Many communities reported a record number of days with temperatures of 50°F or higher during this winter, including MSP with 18 days. In addition, even northern Minnesota communities reported a record number of days with temperatures above the freezing mark (32°F), including International Falls which reported 40 such days this winter.

Winter moisture started with a record-setting wet month of December, wettest in history. Most of the precipitation came as rain. This was followed by a drier than normal January and February. Overall, most places in Minnesota have received above average precipitation since December 1st, but thanks entirely to the record-setting wetness of December.

The warm pattern so entrenched in the winter season is expected to persist throughout the spring season as well, according to most of the NOAA outlook models. Models give no clear indication of whether to expect a wetter or drier than normal spring season in Minnesota.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: The BBC features an interesting article about the loss of ice in Antarctica as viewed from satellite imagery since the 1970s. New analyses has revealed in acceleration in ice loss over recent decades.

According to the Weather Underground, this week’s wildfire in the Texas panhandle has grown to the largest in state history. The Smokehouse Creek Fire has burned over 1700 square miles. Many structures have been damaged or destroyed by the fire. Part of the Texas panhandle was in Severe Drought going into this winter.

MPR listener question: In recent weeks you reported about near-record setting low amounts of seasonal snowfall for some parts of Minnesota. Now that we have come to the end of February, can you update for us?

Answer: Sure can. Looking at total snowfall from October 1 of 2023 through February 29 of 2024, I find the following record-setting low amounts:

5.6 inches at Austin (Mower County)
11.0 inches at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County)
4.8 inches at Wheaton (Traverse County)


In addition, I find that the following locations have recorded their 3rd ranked lowest snow season so far:

Gunflint Lake (Cook County) with 21.7 inches
Duluth (St Louis County) with 18.7 inches
Albert Lea (Freeborn County) with 7.8 inches
Brainerd (Crow Wing County) with 10.9 inches
Park Rapids (Hubbard County) with 8.5 inches
Collegeville (Stearns County) with 9.8 inches

BTW, the Twin Cities at 14.3 inches so far ranks as the 7th lowest snow season, while Rochester at 11.9 inches ranks as the 6th lowest historically.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 1st: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 34 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 18 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 1st:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1990; lowest daily maximum temperature of 0 degrees F in 1962; lowest daily minimum temperature of -32 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 38 degrees F in 2004; record precipitation of 1.62 inches in 1965. There was a record 9.0 inches of snowfall in 2007.

Average dew point for March 1st is 14°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 45°F in 2000; and the minimum dew point on this date is -23 degrees F in 1967.

All-time state records for March 1st:
The state record high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F at Ashby (Grant County) in 1907. The state record low temperature for this date is -47 degrees F at Bigfork (Itasca County) in 1962. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.50 inches at Jordan (Scott County) in 2007. The state snowfall record is 18.8 inches at Collegeville (Stearns County) in 1965.

Past Weather: The coldest ever March 1st was in 1962. That morning most residents of Minnesota awoke to temperatures ranging from -20°F to -40°F, as cold high pressure settled in over abundant snow pack across the state. The afternoon high temperature at Hallock (Kittson County) only reached minus 14°F.

A major winter storm brought heavy snows to Minnesota over March 1-3 of 1965. Many parts of central and northern Minnesota measured 10 to 20 inches of snow from this storm. Over 2 feet of snow fell in parts of Renville and Stearns Counties. There were widespread school closures.

The warmest ever March 1st was in 1992, when many areas of the state saw afternoon high temperatures in the 50s and 60s F. Milan in Chippewa County saw 70°F and with the absence of snow cover, some farmers were seen doing tillage in their fields.

Outlook:
Continuing to warm up well above normal on Saturday and Sunday. Increasing cloudiness late in the day Sunday, with a chance for rain or snow into Monday. Then, cooler (still above normal) and drier for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a chance for showers again by Thursday.

Record warm February is guaranteed:
With only a couple of colder than normal days this month, the persistent above normal temperatures so characteristic of the climate since December 1st (75 percent of all days) will carry on to the end of the month and undoubtedly help set a record for the warmest February in state history, matching the warmest December in state history which occurred just two months ago. On Thursday (Feb 22) temperatures climbed into the 50s F at many locations across Minnesota, and even reached 60°F at Caledonia (Houston County).

Some absurd numbers to contemplate: The average number of days that the daily temperatures climb above freezing (32°F) in the Twin Cities during the winter season (Dec-February) is 31 days. Similarly for International Falls (the Nation’s Icebox) it is 11 days. So far in the winter of 2023-2024 with another week to go in February, MSP has reported 58 days with maximum temperatures above freezing (32°F) this winter (Dec-Feb), while International Falls has reported 42 such days. These are record-setting number of days to be above the freezing mark. It is likely that meteorological winter will end up being 12-13°F warmer than normal on both a statewide basis and in the Twin Cities.

In addition, seasonal snowfall totals are some of the lowest in history for many long term climate stations in Minnesota. Some examples:

Twin Cities: 14.2 inches
Rochester 10.5 inches
Saint Cloud 13.6 inches
Duluth 17.7 inches
International Falls 25.7 inches
Itasca State Park 10 inches

Granted some late season snowfalls may still occur in March and April, but according to the outlook models this appears unlikely.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features a fascinating article about the dynamics of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) driven by landscape interactions and cloud formation. It is far more complex than previously known, especially with respect to formation of convective cloud systems.

The BBC reported this week that persistent torrential rains have flooded most of Bolivia in South America, filling most reservoirs to capacity. There has been significant death toll due to flooding and landslides, following a record warm period and drought last year.

The United Kingdom Meteorological Office announced this week that the Royal Mail Service is releasing 8 new stamps to commemorate the 170th anniversary of the Met Office in that country. The stamps depict the people, technology, and services provided by the Met Office and will undoubtedly be a popular item for stamp collectors.

Earlier this month the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia released its Annual Assessment of the Climate of 2023, which was the 8th warmest year of record in that country. They also stated that the winter of 2023 was the warmest ever historically. Rainfall was highly variable north to south across the country, with greater amounts in the north. The month of September was the driest ever.
MPR listener question: The year 2012 we remember as a very hot one throughout the Midwest. We were wondering of 2012 might have been an El Nino year, but there is no indication that it was. So why were the spring and summer of 2012 so hot?
Answer: You are correct about 2012, as every month of the year from January through July was warmer than normal, with some downturn in temperature finally coming in August and September. The year actually started in the grip of a modest La Nina episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but I don’t think that solely explains the hot climate of 2012. Two other factors are noteworthy of that year: Drought was in place early in the year across the southern plains states and the southwestern states of NM and AZ. This drought spread northeast across Nebraska, Iowa and up into Minnesota as the year progressed. The drier landscape heated up more readily from the higher sun angles in spring and summer. Secondly there were many days with strong southwesterly winds blowing from the Sonoran Heat Ridge in the southwester USA that brought warm air masses northeast into the central and upper plains states including Minnesota. In March of 2012 875 maximum temperature records were set within the state climate network and from April to June another 137 daily maximum temperature records were tied or broken in Minnesota.
Twin Cities Almanac for February 23rd: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 16 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 23rd:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1958; lowest daily maximum temperature of -8 degrees F in 1889; lowest daily minimum temperature of -25 degrees F in 1889; highest daily minimum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1931; record precipitation of 0.63 inches in 1909. There was a record 6.5 inches of snowfall in 2023.

Average dew point for February 23rd is 15°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 45°F in 2000; and the minimum dew point on this date is -23 degrees F in 1967.

All-time state records for February 23rd: The state record high temperature for this date is 70 degrees F at Lake Wilson (Murray County) in 2000. The state record low temperature for this date is -43 degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County) in 1889. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.35 inches at Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1922. The state snowfall record is 25.0 inches also at both Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1922.

Past Weather: An Arctic air mass brought record-setting low temperatures to many parts of Minnesota on February 23 of 1889. Many areas saw morning lows of -30°F or colder. With over a foot of snow cover, Moorhead reported a morning low of -35°F and an afternoon high of -13°F.

One of the worst ever February winter storms passed over the state from February 21 to February 23 of 1922. It brought rain. Freezing rain, sleet, snow, thunder, and even lightning. Winds gusted 40 mph. Southeastern counties recorded one of the worst ice storms in history which brought down power lines that took days to restore. Many areas reported from 9 to 18 inches of snow, and Detroit Lakes (Becker County) reported 25 inches.

Probably the warmest ever February 23rd was in 2000, when many areas of the state reported afternoon high temperatures in the 50s and 60s F. It was 60°F as far north as Blackduck in Beltrami County.

Outlook: Sunny, breezy, and warmer than normal over the weekend. Increasing clouds on Monday, still quite warm, but with a chance for rain or snow in the far north. Chance for rain/snow on Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures. Then warming up towards the end of next week.

A Brief Taste of Winter:Valentine’s Day brought a brief return to winter with the heaviest snowfall of the season for many parts of the state. Seven to eight hours of snowfall, sometimes mixed with rain produced difficult driving conditions resulting in over 300 crash reports according to the Minnesota Stzate Patrol. Across central Minnesota many observers reported 3 to 6 inches, with a few reports of 7 inches or more (near New Prague and Hastings). A few spots reported record amounts of snowfall, including:

6.9 inches at MSP
6.5 inches at Bird Island in Renville County (tied record from 1967)
5.3 inches at Kimball in Stearns County
5.2 inches at Hastings Dam in Dakota County

Following the snowstorm, colder air swept into the state bring the first days (Thu and Fri) of near normal or colder than normal temperatures since January 20th. Temperatures are expected to warm up above normal values again over the weekend and remain so for the rest of the month.
Still on Track to Be the Warmest Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb): Though the arrival of snow and colder temperatures this week slowed the pace of record warmth this winter, the statewide average temperature since December 1 of 2023 remains roughly 13°F above normal. A number of climate stations have reported a record number of days with high temperatures of 50°F or greater this winter. Some of these include:

MSP with 12 days
Rochester with 9 days
St Peter with 11 days
Granite Falls with 10 days

According to medium range models we may see more high temperatures of 50°F or greater over the last week of February. MSP and other climate stations remain on a pace to break the record for the warmest month of February by several degrees, and we may see monthly mean temperatures for February that are 13°F to 15°F above normal. Of further note, the latest extended forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates that above normal temperatures will likely dominate most of Minnesota in March.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features a new study about atmospheric rivers, those concentrate ed streams of water vapor embedded in the troposphere that are so visible on satellite imagery. The study finds that climate change will continue to increase the frequency and amplitude of these atmospheric rivers over certain geographies, increasing the risk of extreme and damaging storms.

This week the BBC reviews a recent study of polar bears in the Arctic. The study tracked polar bear eating habits and weight gain and loss. The animals use the sea ice as a platform to hunt ringed seals, which have high concentrations of fat, mostly in late spring and early summer. The polar bears hunts these seals from ice floes, but in some areas the ice-free period has increased by three weeks between 1979 and 2015. When they cannot hunt from ice floes, they scavenge on land, but usually lose weight due to different food availability.

Jonathan Erdman of the Weather Underground provides a nice synopsis this week of all the communities in the Midwest and Northeast that are likely to set new warm records for meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) once the month of February finishes. Besides all the communities in Minnesota experiencing a record warm winter, so are residents in places like Cedar Rapids, IA, Fargo, ND, and Caribou, ME.

MPR listener question: We heard the Twin cities received a record snowfall for Valentine’s Day, 6.9 inches, and wondered how often a daily snowfall that size occurs in the month of February? Seems rare.
Answer: You are right about that being a rare amount for February. Since 1885, a period of 140 years, there have been only 14 daily snowfalls of 6.9 inches or greater during the month. The record most daily amount for February is 11/8 inches on the 20th in 2011.
MPR listener question: I understand that our strange weather is due the combination of global warming and the El Niño. I’ve been wondering if global warming affects the frequency of El Niño episodes?
Answer: El Nino episodes are pretty well documented back to 1950. Their frequency and duration have been highly variable historically, and so far there is no scientific evidence to suggest that these historical variabilities have changed significantly with climate change. But I am sure there are continued studies about this.
Twin Cities Almanac for February 16th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 13 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 16th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1981; lowest daily maximum temperature of -11 degrees F in 1903; lowest daily minimum temperature of -26 degrees F in 1936; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1998; record precipitation of 0.40 inches in 1878. There was a record 3.2 inches of snowfall in 1938.

Average dew point for February 16th is 11°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 38°F in 2011; and the minimum dew point on this date is -29 degrees F in 1973.

All-time state records for February 16th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 67 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1981. The state record low temperature for this date is -59 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1903. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.20 inches at Brainerd (Crow Wing County) in 1921. The state snowfall record is 12.0 inches at both Aitkin (Aitkin County) and Mora (Kanabec County) in 1990.
Past Weather: February 16 of 1936 brought Arctic cold to most of Minnesota. Many new low temperature records were set, as subzero temperatures prevailed across the state, ranging from -25°F to -45°F. The afternoon high temperature at Fosston (Polk County) only reached -25°F.

By far the warmest February 16th was in 1981. With little or no snow on the ground in most areas, afternoon temperatures soared into the 50s and 60s F, setting many records highs. High temperatures of 60°F or greater were reported from 25 counties.

Parts of Minnesota from Little Falls to Cloquet were hit with heavy snowfalls from a winter storm over February 15-16 of 1990. Many observers reported from 8 to 12 inches of snowfall.
Outlook: Generally breezy with partly cloudy skies on Saturday. There will be a slight chance for snow in the farm north, as temperatures warm back to above normal levels. More sun in some areas on Sunday and temperatures will continue to warm. It appears next week with be dry with well above normal temperatures in most places.

Remarkably Warm Start to February:

The record-setting warm December-January is being punctuated with an exclamation mark during the first 8 days of February which are averaging 25.2°F above normal on a statewide basis. In fact, these are the warmest first 8 days of February in state history, surpassing 1991 and 2005.

Over 40 climate stations have reported multiple days of 50° F or higher maximum temperatures so far this month, including northern locations such as Baudette, Tower, and Itasca State Park. Within the statewide climate observing network over 120 new daily high maximum temperatures have been set and over 140 new warm daily minimum temperature records have been set during the first 8 days of the month. Many overnight low temperatures remained above freezing this week, even as far north as International Falls where the low temperature was 36°F on February 8th. This prolonged the thawing cycle for soils and lakes, as ice thickness declined to unsafe levels in many areas, and soils completely thawed out.

The relative absence of soil frost and snow cover over 70 percent of the state landscape is very rare for this time of year. In fact, the warmer than normal soil temperatures will make it difficult for snowfall to stick around over the second half of February even if air temperatures are cold enough to produce some snowfall.

Citizens have been tapping their maple tress for early sap flow, and also noticing early bud formation on many trees and shrubs. My wife and I have notice many birds cleaning up in the bird bath as well.

Outlook guidance suggests that temperatures will slowly drop closer to normal for the balance of the month, but no Arctic Outbreak, or even prolonged spell of colder than normal temperatures is seen.

125th Anniversary of the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899:

Today is the anniversary of two arctic cold outbreaks which produced some rather striking effects on the mighty Mississippi River. On this date in 1835 and again in 1899 the river was frozen deeply at Ft Snelling, allowing for foot and sleigh traffic. Low temperatures in Minnesota ranged from the -30s F to the -50s F. The Mississippi River was also frozen enough for skating and sledding as far south as St Louis, and ice floes were observed entering the Gulf of Mexico out of New Orleans. Climate measurements were rare in 1835, but in 1899 the Great Arctic Outbreak was well documented by the Weather Service. On the morning of February 9 of 1899 while many climate stations in Minnesota were reporting temperatures in the minus 40s to minus 50s F, parts of Louisiana recorded their all-time coldest temperatures with 7 degrees F at New Orleans and -4 degrees F at Shreveport. The 1899 cold wave struck the Gulf and eastern seaboard states with great ferocity. Parts of Florida received 3.5 inches of snow and other record lows occurred including:

-6 degrees F at Atlanta 10 degrees F at Jacksonville
-2 degrees F at Tallahassee -15 degrees F in Washington, D.C.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

Record-setting rains brought floods and landslides to much of southern California earlier this week, over Sunday through Tuesday. Many climate stations reported over 5 inches of rain. Long Beach reported over 7.5 inches, downtown LA reported 8.88 inches, and San Gabriel Canyon reported just under 10 inches. The mountains east of LA reported from 2 to 4 feet of fresh snow. The Weather Underground provided a more detailed narrative about this storms on their web site.


The BBC reported this week that the EU’s Climate Service has shown that the global temperature anomaly for the most recent 12 months (Feb 2023 to Jan 2024) exceeded 1.5°F, the threshold agreed to prevent by the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015. They also report that the average daily global sea surface temperature (records back to 1979), between latitudes 60° N and 60°F south has set a new all-time record high of 21.05°C (69.9°F) when it reached that level of February 3 of 2024. More aggressive strategies to restrict emissions of GHG are encouraged.


An article in this week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features a study about the poleward shift in vegetation types that is produced by climate change. This has great implications for forests and the timber industry in many countries. Countries that are economically dependent on their natural resources will be more profoundly impacted.

MPR listener question:

Have we ever had a snowless February in the Twin Cities? If not, what is the least amount of snow we have had this month?

Answer:

We have never had a snowless February since official snow observations started in 1884. The closest to a snowless February were in 1894 and 2017 when only 0.3 inches was measured for the month, and in 1935 when only 0.8 inches was measured.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 9th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 26 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 11 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 9th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1966; lowest daily maximum temperature of -16 degrees F in 1899; lowest daily minimum temperature of -33 degrees F in 1899; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 1966; record precipitation of 0.92 inches in 1965. There was a record 8.0 inches of snowfall in 1939.

Average dew point for February 9th is 6°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 34°F in 1987; and the minimum dew point on this date is -47 degrees F in 1996.

All-time state records for February 9th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1991. The state record low temperature for this date is -59 degrees F at Leech Lake (Cass County) in 1899. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.75 inches at Collegeville (Stearns County) in 1909. The state snowfall record is 15.0 inches also at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) also in 1909.

Past Weather:

The coldest February 9th was in 1899, when Arctic air gripped the state producing morning lows from -20°F to -40°F across the state. Itasca, Hubbard, Becker, and Cass counties reported morning lows of -50°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Detroit Lakes only reached -32°F.

A slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snowfall across the state over February 9-10 of 1909. Many climate stations reported 8 to 16 inches of snowfall, with drifts as high as 6 feet. New Ulm reported 18 inches of snow.

The warmest February 9th occurred in 1991 when much of the state saw afternoon temperatures in the 50s F. Citizens in Brown, Redwood, and Yellow Medicine Counties took lunch break outside in 60 degrees F temperatures.

Outlook:

Blustery with cooler temperatures over the weekend, but still warmer than normal for this time of year. Generally dry with a chance for snow by the middle of next week, as temperatures slowly drop to near normal levels for February.

January Climate Summary:Warm and dry describe the month of January 2024 in Minnesota. Despite having 8 or 9 colder than normal days in mid-month, many nights of subzero, the statewide average temperature for January will rank as the 10th warmest in history, over 7°F above normal. The last week of January brought temperatures that average 24°F above normal. In addition, some record high dew points were measured as well. When combined with the record-setting warm December, the first two months of meteorological winter (Dec-Jan) rank as the warmest in state history (surpassing 2011-2012). Of further note, the three-months of November through January rank as the 2nd warmest in state history, trailing only 2001-2002.

Dozens of daily high maximum temperature records were set within the state climate observation network, and well over 100 new daily records were set for warm minimum temperatures, as many nights brought fog and kept temperatures in the 20s and 30s F. No new statewide temperature records were set, although both Marshall and Canby hit 60°F on the last day of the month. Northern Minnesota communities saw the most astonishing records, especially on January 31st when daytime highs surpassed 50°F at places like Baudette, International Falls, Bigfork, Flag Island (NW Angle), and Hibbing. Many golf courses and bike trails were open for business.

Here is the relative ranking of the mean January temperature for a few locations:
International Falls recorded its 5th warmest January
Hibbing recorded its 8th warmest January
St Cloud reported its 10th warmest January
MSP reported its 11th warmest January

In addition, the first two days of February brought some record warm temperatures to Minnesota, including 51°F at St Peter and 50°F at Winnebago, and the forecast guidance suggests that more record-setting temperatures may occur over the first ten days of February.

Moisture-wise, January was drier than normal across most of the state. Only a few spots along the north shore of Lake Superior, and in southwestern and southeastern Minnesota reported above normal precipitation. Many climate stations reported less than half of normal January precipitation, including MSP with just 0.13 inches, St Cloud with 0.20 inches, Redwood Falls with 0.10 inches, Winnebago with 0.23 inches, and Faribault with 0.20 inches. For the Twin Cities (MSP) the 0.13 inches translates to the 4th driest January in history.

With the exception of far north-central and northeastern communities, most places were snow starved in January, with many observers reporting less than 4 inches. At many locations only 5 or 6 days brought snow, always in light amounts. Some places in northeastern Minnesota received 15 to 17 inches of snowfall.

Unlike most Januarys, clear skies were rare this month. The month was dominated by clouds or fog. Over a third of the days brought fog to many areas of the state, including several mornings with thick fog.

January warmth and dryness helped reduce the workloads of medical personnel who treat victims of accidental falls due to snow and ice according to the orthopedic clinic where my wife goes.

Happy Groundhogs Day:
Today, February 2nd, marks another Groundhog Day or Candlemas Day (changing the stock of candles in the church), the half way point of winter, and in 1996 the coldest day in Minnesota history, setting a state record of -60 degrees F at Tower, MN.  The Groundhog did not see his shadow this year, indicating an early spring is on its way.

The largest contrasts in temperature conditions on Groundhog Day occurred during the 1990s. In 1991 several communities reported daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 60s F and numerous records were set, including 48 F in the Twin Cities and a remarkable 66 F at Wheaton (Traverse County). Conversely in 1996 Minnesota marked one of its coldest days in history with morning lows of -50 degrees F or colder at twelve different locations, and a new statewide record low of -60 degrees F at Tower, MN. Not many states can claim Groundhog Day as marking their coldest temperature in history.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:According to the BBC, many parts of Europe are concerned about drought for this coming growing season. Rainfall and snowfall have been below normal in many areas. There is concern that their food production system may be hurt by this and provoke rises in food prices.

A new study from the University of Reading and published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society finds that the remarkable warm sea surface temperatures so prevalent during 2023 may become more frequent with climate change and provoke even more extreme measures of climate in terms of water vapor and temperature as we proceed into the future.

MPR listener question: We are trying to find reason for hope to salvage the 2023-2024 snow season. Can you tell us how often February or March has been the snowiest month of the season in the Metro Area of the Twin Cities?
Answer: We have 139 years of record back to 1885. The data show that 19 times February as been the snowiest month (about 14 percent), and that 30 times March has been the snowiest month (about 22 percent). So there is about a 1 in 3 chance historically that either of those months produce the most snow during the snow season. Checking to see how often the February-March period brings above normal snowfall during an El Nino episodes, this too yields about a 1 in 3 chance.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 2nd: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 2nd:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 48 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily maximum temperature of -17 degrees F in 1996; lowest daily minimum temperature of -32 degrees F in 1996; highest daily minimum temperature of 31 degrees F in 2020; record precipitation of 0.80 inches in 1919. There was a record 8.8 inches of snowfall in 2016.

Average dew point for February 2nd is 3°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 34°F in 1987; and the minimum dew point on this date is -47 degrees F in 1996.

All-time state records for February 2nd:
The state record high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1991. The state record low temperature for this date is -60 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1996. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.00 inches at Caledonia (Housston County) in 1915. The state snowfall record is 20.0 inches also at Caledonia (Houston County) in 1915.
Past Weather: Back-to-back winter storms brought heavy snowfall to Minnesota the first week of February in 1915. Many observers reported snowfall everyday of the week, in many cases totaling 10 to 20 inches. Some southern locations reported over two feet of snow.

Record-setting warm temperatures prevailed across much of Minnesota on February 2 of 1991. At least 25 counties reported temperatures in the 50s F, while observers in four western counties reported highs of 60°F or greater. International Falls reached a high of 55°F with 18 inches of snow on the ground.

The coldest February 2nd in state history was in 1996. It was also the coldest for many neighboring states as well. Twelve Minnesota climate stations reported a morning temperature of -50°F or colder. The daily high temperature at Red Lake Falls only reached -30°F. and Rochester reported a low of -35°F and a high of -20°F.

Outlook:
Continued very warm temperatures through the weekend with plenty of sunshine. The warm temperatures will dominate the first full week of February, perhaps modified a bit by chances for rain or slushy snow by late Wednesday and on Thursday.

Historical Context for These Warm Temperatures:December of 2023 was the warmest in state climate history averaging over 14°F above normal on a statewide basis. Almost all of the days recorded above normal temperatures. This followed a November when over two-thirds of the day were warmer than normal, giving us a mean monthly temperature that was 4.0°F above normal. So, the November/December combination to end the year 2023 was the 2nd warmest in state history, trailing 2001 by a small margin.

Now that the Arctic Cold Wave is behind us, it is estimated that the last ten days of January will average 15-19°F above normal across the state. This will offset the mid-month cold spell and likely give us an average monthly temperature for January that is about 5.5°F to 6.0°F above normal (statewide basis). Such numbers mean that the Dec/Jan combination of this winter will be the warmest in state history, surpassing that of 2011-2012. The combined months of November through January (2023-2024) will be the 2nd warmest in state history, behind only 2001-2002.

One remaining question for meteorologists and climatologists to scratch their heads about is will the meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) set a new statewide record for warm temperatures. The key uncertainty is how temperatures will trend in February. Based on the outlook models, temperatures will trend above normal in February, but by how much. If the statewide February mean temperature is more than 6°F above normal, we may have a shot at setting a record warm meteorological winter.

Since the current El Nino episode is ranked among the strongest recorded, I looked at the previous top 5 wintertime El Nino episodes historically (1983, 1998, 1973, 1931, and 1992). For these five years the average February temperature in Minnesota (statewide) was 10.6°F warmer than normal. In this context, a significantly warmer than normal February seems likely and the medium range forecast models suggest we could see temperatures as much as 15°F warmer than normal for the first two weeks of February.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: A recent study published in Water Resources Research documents the changes in frequency of extreme pluvial events such as droughts and floods and shows a geographic disparity as a result of climate change. Some climate patterns have produced floods and droughts across the same geographic region with a year of each other, marking a very short transition between extremely wet patterns and extremely dry patters. This type of climate behavior is expected to be more prevalent with climate change in some regions of the world.

The BBC reported this week on a study of drought in the Amazon rain forests of South America. The drought of 2023 was arguably the worst ever in that region, and recent research finds that it was driven mostly by the vast deforestation that has occurred there over recent decades combined with climate change trends across the Southern Hemisphere. The article is worth a read.

The Weather Channel features an article about how the weather may affect the AFC Championship football game in Baltimore this Sunday (Ravens vs Chiefs). The weather is expected to be wet and windy, perhaps affecting both the passing and kicking elements of the game. The NFC Championship is California (49ers vs Lions) is expected to see fine weather.
MPR listener question: We have heard meteorologists talk about warm nights this month in the 20s and 30s F. We wondered if you knew what the record was for the warmest nighttime minimum in the month of January?
Answer: The warmest minimum temperature during January for the Twin Cities is 42°F back on January 25 of 1944. That same night the minimum temperature was 49°F at Winona setting a statewide record for high minimum temperature.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 26th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 16 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 26th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily maximum temperature of -9 degrees F in 1972; lowest daily minimum temperature of -26 degrees F in 1897; highest daily minimum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1911; record precipitation of 0.37 inches in 1910. There was a record 7.4 inches of snowfall in 2004.

Average dew point for January 26th is 1°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 37°F in 1944; and the minimum dew point on this date is -41 degrees F in 1946.

All-time state records for January 26th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) in 1944. The state record low temperature for this date is -55 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1904. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.00 inches at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 2004. The state snowfall record is 24.0 inches at Tamarac Refuge (Becker County) in 2004.
Words of the Week: Cat Connotations Most people have heard of the term "raining cats and dogs", which has been in use for centuries, with specific reference to how loud a hard rain can be. But the word cat is also used by meteorologists to describe other features of the weather.

Cat ice (shell ice) is the thin layer of unbroken ice which remains over a pond, lake or stream after the water level drops, leaving a cavity between the water surface below and the ice above. Presumably the connotation is that this ice could only support the weight of a cat.

Cat's Paw is a term used to describe a very local scale light breeze that is just enough to cause irregular patches of ripples on an otherwise glassy water surface. This creates a pattern not unlike a series of cat paw prints.

Cat's Nose is a term used in England and some other countries to describe a cool northwest wind which may have the same effect as being touched on the face or hands by a cold cat's nose.
Past Weather: Early this week on January 23rd was the 244th anniversary of some of the coldest weather during the Revolutionary War for Independence. A temperature of -16 degrees F below zero was registered in New York City. The New York harbor was frozen over, as were all ports along the east coast as far south as North Carolina. The persistent winter cold produced ice so thick that British soldiers could haul cannons from Manhattan across the ice to Staten Island. In fact, General Washington ordered Major General Stirling to take 3000 revolutionary soldiers across the ice and attack the British on Staten Island, but they had to turn back because of foul (wind and poor visibility) weather. Of course, this type of January was perhaps more typical back then, as the Little Ice Age (an extended period of cold in the northern hemisphere from 1400 to 1850 AD) was in full swing.

Bitter cold gripped the state on January 26 of 1997. All counties reported subzero temperature readings in the morning, mostly ranging from -15°F to -30°F. Many northern communities reported morning lows of -40°F or colder. Tower reported -52°F and Embarrass reported -50°F. The daily maximum temperature at Fosston (Polk County) only reached -15°F.

Spring-like temperatures prevailed across western and southern Minnesota on January 26, 2002. Fifty climate stations representing 45 counties reported an afternoon temperature of 50°F or higher, topped by 62°F at Amboy (Blue Earth County) and 61°F at Windom (Cottonwood County). There was little snow on the ground in these areas of the state.

A winter storm brought heavy snow to parts of the state over January 25-27 of 2004. Snow fell across a wide swath over the state, mostly bringing 8 to 19 inches to many areas. The northeast counties reported 20 to 30 inches of snow

Outlook:
Cloudiness and fog will be decreasing over the weekend and skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny with warmer than normal temperatures. Temperatures will warm even more next week with little chance for precipitation as we end January and start February.

After a cold period, a reversal of temperature pattern:Many places in Minnesota have seen temperatures average near 0°F or subzero since last Friday (January 12), certainly the coldest spell of weather so far this winter and the longest sustained period of below normal temperatures since last April. In fact here is the average air temperature since last Friday for a few selected communities, along with the departure from normal:

International Falls, ave temp -6°F, -10°F below normal
St Cloud, ave temp 1°F, -12°F below normal
Brainerd, ave temp -2°F, -12°F below normal
MSP, ave temp 4°F, -12°F below normal
Rochester, ave temp 0°F, -14°F below normal
Duluth, ave temp -2°F, -13°F below normal.

Many places have reported minimum temperatures this week of -20°F or colder. The morning of January 18th both Brimson and Tower reported -26°F as a minimum temperature. Despite the persistence of cold Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states only once during the past week.

Noteworthy is that after this weekend, Minnesota will experience significantly above normal temperatures for the last 10 days of January. In addition, the outlook for February favors above normal temperatures for Minnesota, and that may persist through early spring. Given these outlooks it is highly likely that Minnesota will record the warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in state history, surpassing that of 1997-1998.
Weekly Weather Potpourri: The BBC features an interesting article about Frost Fairs that used to be hosted on the frozen river Thames in London occasionally during the harsh winters of the Little Ice Age (especially in the 17th and 18th Century). The ice was so thick on the Thames that carnivals were hosted with elephants on ice skates, food and drink booths, and bowling matches.


A new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science finds that in many of the world’s arid subarid regions, where climate change models predicted increases in atmospheric water vapor (moisture), the opposite trend is appearing, as they are getting drier. This is puzzling to many scientists and may indicate a missing factor in some models regarding atmospheric dynamics or landscape feedback that promotes aridity. Obviously more study is needed to sort this out.

MPR listener question: I have often heard you say that Minnesota reports the coldest temperature in the nation a several times each year and on occasion lows as cold as -50 degrees F are reported. But how many climate stations in the state have really recorded a value of -50 degrees F or colder?
Answer: A large number of communites and climate stations have seen temperatures of -50 degrees F or colder. At least 53 Minnesota stations, representing 22 of Minnesota's 87 counties have reported temperatures that cold. The list below shows the geographic distribution.

Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) Grand Rapids (Itasca County)
International Falls (Koochiching County) Orr (St Louis County)
Saint Vincent (Kittson County) Hallock (Kittson County)
St Cloud (Sherburne County) Baudette (Lake of the Woods County)
Bagley (Clearwater County) Detroit Lakes (Becker County)
Little Fork (Koochiching County) Wright (Carlton County)
Pine River Dam (Crow Wing County) Brainerd (Crow Wing County)
Bemidji (Beltrami County) Brimson (St Louis County)
Fosston (Polk County) Crookston (Polk County)
Ada (Norman County) Winton (Lake County)
Mahnomen (Mahnomen County) Park Rapids (Hubbard County)
Roseau (Roseau County) Warroad (Roseau County)
Red Lake Falls (Red Lake County) Itasca State Park (Itasca County)
Red Lake Agency (Beltrami County) Leech Lake (Cass County)
Duluth (St Louis County) Big Falls (Koochiching County)
Floodwood (St Louis County) Sandy Lake Dam (Aitkin County)
Marcell Ranger Station (Itasca County) Tower (St Louis County)
Embarrass (St Louis County) Rush City (Chisago County)
Cook (St Louis County) Stephens Mine (Itasca County)
Cotton (St Louis County) Moose Lake (Carlton County)
Bigfork (Itasca County) Fort Ripley (Crow Wing County)
Mora (Kanabec County) Willow River (Pine County)
Thorhult (Beltrami County) Tamarac Refuge (Becker County)
Hibbing (St Louis County) Meadowlands (St Louis County)
Remer (Cass County) Babbitt (St Louis County)
Ely (Lake County) Kabetogama (St Louis County)
Camp Norris (Lake of the Woods County)
Twin Cities Almanac for January 19th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 19th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 49 degrees F in 1921; lowest daily maximum temperature of -10 degrees F in 1970; lowest daily minimum temperature of -34 degrees F in 1970; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1908; record precipitation of 0.57 inches in 1988. There was a record 7.5 inches of snowfall also in 1988.

Average dew point for January 19th is 4°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1932; and the minimum dew point on this date is -38 degrees F in 1977.

All-time state records for January 19th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 61 degrees F at Milan (Chippewa County) in 1900. The state record low temperature for this date is -50 degrees F at Fosston (Polk County) in 1996. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.03 inches at Lake City (Wabasha County) in 1982. The state snowfall record is 18.0 inches also at St James (Watonwan County) in 1988.
Past Weather: January 19 of 1900 brought March-like conditions to most of Minnesota with daytime temperatures in the 40s and 50s F. With very little snow cover the landscape heated up under bright sunny skies and it reached 61°F at Milan (Chippewa County).

Arctic high pressure settled over the state on January 19, 1943 bringing morning low temperatures that ranged from -20°F to -40°F across Minnesota. Big Falls (Koochiching County) reported -45°F in the morning and only warmed up to -26°F in the afternoon.

A slow moving winter storm delivered a mixture of precipitation over January 17-19 of 1996. Freezing rain and ice build-up produced widespread power outages in eastern Minnesota, while western counties were under a blizzard warning with winds up to 60 mph. Many schools and businesses were closed. Snowfall totals ranged from 8 to 18 inches in many areas and northeastern communities reported over 20 inches of snow.
Outlook:
Continued cold and breezy on Saturday, then warming to near normal temperatures on Sunday under partly sunny skies. A warming trend will begin on Monday with winds from the south. The warming will last all of next week and bring periodic chances for snow flurries or snow showers of limited duration. Possible mixture of snow and rain showers on Tuesday and Wednesday in southern Minnesota.

Rare colder than normal temperatures return:

Thursday, January 11th, brought many smiles and lifted spirits because it was the sunniest day since December 29th for many areas of the state. Through the first 10 days of January temperatures have been well above normal (warmest start to the month since 2007), but cloudiness has dominated the weather scene in Minnesota for the month so far, with most of the significant weather systems delivering precipitation remaining south of the state. The exception was the snowstorm that plagued portions of southwestern and southeastern Minnesota over January 7-9. Many observers in these areas of the state reported 4 to 7 inches of snowfall. Portions of Rock County reported over 11 inches of snowfall. The DNR State Climatology Office reported more details on the snowfall this week at their web site.

January 11 brought more significant snowfalls to the north shore, especially from Two Harbors to Finland and Lutsen. Snowfall amounts ranged from 6 inches to 14 inches. Yet more snowfall is expected there throughout the weekend.

Snow cover around the state ranges mostly between 1 inch and 4 inches, but this will enhance the cold temperatures projected for the coming weekend and early next week. Subzero morning lows may range from -5°F to -15°F, with Wind Chill conditions in the minus twenties and minus thirties at times. This forecasted colder than normal period, periods lasting 10 days (through January 20) will be the longest for most parts of Minnesota since last April. The last week of January is expected to see a return of above normal temperatures.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

This week at the NOAA climate.gov web site is a review of the 28 weather and climate disasters that caused close to $93 billion in damages and loss. There is also an examination of the disturbing trend in such events.

Jonathan Erdman of the Weather Underground writes this week that at least two of the NFL Wild Card Football Playoff games may be significantly affected by the weather this weekend. The Miami Dolphins play the Kansas City Chiefs Saturday night in KC and will be playing in singled digits temperatures with subzero Wind Chill conditions. In these conditions is can be difficult to hold onto the ball. Then Sunday afternoon the Pittsburgh Steelers will be at the Buffalo Bills Highmark stadium where there may be some heavy snow showers and Wind Chill conditions near zero. So both cold and visibility may be issues for that football game.

This week the journal Nature features a fascinating article about the decline in average winter snowpack across the Northern Hemisphere that has been provoked by climate change. The analysis shows that much of the southwestern and northeastern USA landscape has seen sharp declines.

MPR listener question:

You mentioned on the TPT Almanac program last week, that the upward trend in December mean temperature (statewide) was remarkable. What do the trends in mean temperature look like for other months of the year?

Answer:

According to the NOAA Climate Data Center, Minnesota average monthly temperatures show the following trends over the most recent century (100 years of data):

January +4.1°F
February +4.4°F
March 4.0°F
April +0.4°F
May +1.6°F
June +2.1°F
July +1.1°F
August +1.4°F
September +2.0°F
October +1.0°F
November +2.7°F
December +3.8°F

Clearly for Minnesota the months of December, January, February, and March have warmed the most. This is also true for many mid-latitude landscapes in the Northern Hemisphere, including Europe and Asia.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 12th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 12th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 48 degrees F in 1987; lowest daily maximum temperature of -13 degrees F in 1912; lowest daily minimum temperature of -31 degrees F in 1912; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1928; record precipitation of 0.70 inches in 1935. There was a record 8.7 inches of snowfall in 2000.

Average dew point for January 12th is 6°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1932; and the minimum dew point on this date is -38 degrees F in 1977.

All-time state records for January 12th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 58 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) and Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 1987. The state record low temperature for this date is -53 degrees F at Pine River Dam (Crow Wing County) in 1912. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.50 inches at St James (Watonwan County) in 1988. The state snowfall record is 15.1 inches also at Cloquet (Carlton County) in 1972.

Past Weather:

The January 10-12 period is bookmarked in the Minnesota history documents as an anniversary for two of the worst blizzards to ever hit the state, those of 1888 and 1975. The storm of January 12, 1888 is well documented in David Laskin's book "The Children's Blizzard." Over 200 people, mostly children, lost their lives in that storm which mostly affected SE South Dakota, SW Minnesota, NE Nebraska, and NW Iowa. The storm rolled in during during the afternoon of what otherwise had been a relatively mild day with temperatures in the mid-30s F. Suddenly,

the winds became strong, snowfall was intense and visibility was dramatically reduced. Children were dismissed from school early, but many never made it home. Temperatures as cold as -37 degrees F were measured the next morning as snow drifts from 10-12 ft dotted the landscape. The timing, sudden onset, dangerous wind chill conditions, and lack of visibility all contributed to this lethal blizzard.

January 10-12, 1975 is remembered by many Minnesotans as the "Storm of the Century." The storm was well forecasted by the National Weather Service, but it was so mighty that it literally shut down the state. Hurricane-like low pressure (only 28.40 inches at Grand Portage) brought wind gusts of 50 to 80 mph in many places. Several counties received over 20 inches of snowfall from this storm. Roads and airports were closed, and 168 passengers were stranded on a stalled train near Willmar, as wind chill conditions were too dangerous for them to walk and seek other shelter. The storm brought 35 deaths, while the American Red Cross provided food and shelter to over 17,000 stranded motorists.

By far the coldest January 12th in state history was in 1912 when morning low temperatures ranged from -20°F to -50°F across Minnesota. At least 40 climate stations reported morning lows of -40°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Campbell (Wilkin County) only managed to reach -27°F.

The warmest January 12th was in 1987. Most climate stations reported afternoon temperatures in the 40s F with little or no snow on the ground. Twenty Minnesota counties reported a high temperature of 50°F or greater.

Outlook:

Patchy blowing snow on Saturday and Sunday with dangerous Wind Chill conditions in some places. In northeastern Minnesota, significant snowfalls (several inches) will continue throughout the weekend and on Monday. Many areas will see subzero overnight lows and even subzero high temperatures. Monday through Wednesday will continue cold and breezy, with some moderation in temperature towards the end of next week.

2023 climate statistics and 2024 start:
The warmest December in state history, coupled with the 2nd warmest ever November-December combination helped make the year 2023 the 8th warmest in Minnesota history (back to 1895). Here is the listing of the top 8 warmest years, with the statewide mean temperature:

1987 45.3°F
2012 45.2°F
1931 45.0°F
1998 44.9°F
2016 44.6°F
2006 44.4°F
2021 44.3°F
2023 44.2°F

The year ended with the wettest December in state history (statewide average precipitation of 2.35 inches compared to a normal of 1.00 inches), but this did not make up for the rainfall deficits that brought drought to the state earlier in 2023. The statewide average precipitation for 2023 was 25.72 inches, about 1.5 inches below normal. Some long-term climate stations reported one of their driest years of record, including:

Albert Lea in Freeborn County (22.30 inches), 9th driest
Preston in Fillmore County (18.07 inches) 9th driest
Pipestone in Pipestone County (18.07 inches) 5th driest
Spring Valley in Fillmore County (18,95 inches) driest ever

After a record-setting month of December (in both temperature and precipitation), January has begun cooler, but still warmer than normal. Through the first few days of the month most climate observers are reporting temperatures that are 8°F to 12°F above normal. January has been drier than normal too, with little snow on the ground in most places. According to the DNR-State Climatology Office most places around the state report no snow cover or less than 1 inch of snow cover.

Most outlook models are favoring closer to normal temperatures for January, with more frequent chances for snowfall. Because of a strong El Nino episode, both the NOAA Climate Prediction Center models and the European climate models favor a warmer than normal February and March for Minnesota, so I would not be surprised by an early spring.

Weekly Weather Potpourri: This week at the NOAA climate.gov web site there is a featured article about climate anomalies and impact since 2015 (the year of COP25 and the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases more aggressively). It is revealing to find that major climate impacts have continued to increase in frequency and impact, while most countries have struggled to reduce emissions at an accelerated pace.

The BBC reported that record-setting snows and cold caused a great deal of travel difficulty in parts of Sweden, Finland, and Norway this week. Many motorists were stranded by heavy snows and had to be rescued. In some parts of northern Sweden, the temperature fell to -45°F or colder.

A recent paper in the journal Nature Climate Change documents the necessity of public behaviour change in order to mitigate climate change. The authors argue that inequality, in the form of income, political influence, and access to low-carbon options inhibits certain groups of people from behavior change that would help fight climate change. The authors suggest that better urban planning and more strategic policymaking with respect to reducing carbon footprints would be ways to mitigate these inequalities.

MPR listener question: With all the stories about unsafe ice on area lakes, we wondered how deeply the soils are frozen now. Seems like most of the December rainfall went into the soil.

Answer: Yes, indeed the December rainfalls were good for soil moisture recharge, as the warm weather kept them from freezing up. The recent turn to cooler temperatures has caused some soils in western and northern areas of the state to freeze to a depth of 4 inches or so. However, many eastern and southern counties still have unfrozen soils.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 5th: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 10 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 5th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1885; lowest daily maximum temperature of -14 degrees F in 1912; lowest daily minimum temperature of -28 degrees F in 1924; highest daily minimum temperature of 33 degrees F in 1946; record precipitation of 0.63 inches in 1932. There was a record 4.7 inches of snowfall in 1994.

Average dew point for January 5th is 5°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1915; and the minimum dew point on this date is -38 degrees F in 1924.

All-time state records for January 5th: The state record high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -44 degrees F at Mora (Kanabec County) in 1988 and at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2018.. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.05 inches at Wheation (Traverse County) in 1997. The state snowfall record is 24.0 inches also at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1997.

Past Weather:

With little snow on the ground, March-like temperatures prevailed across much of Minnesota on January 5 of 1902. Many communities reported afternoon high temperatures in the 40s F. After a morning low of just 4°F, Montevideo reached an afternoon temperature of 43°F.

Record-setting cold temperatures had a grip on the state for January 5 of 1912. Most areas reported subzero temperatures ranging from -25°F to -39°F. Four northern communities reported morning lows of -40°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Thief River Falls only reached -28°F.

Over January 4-5 in 1997 a winter storm brought a mixture of rain and snow to much of Minnesota. Some areas reported rainfall amounts of a half inch or more, while travel in western counties was hampered by freezing rain. Many northern areas received from 10 to 20 inches of snowfall. Wheaton and Wadena reported over 2 feet of snow and some local area schools had to close on Monday, following the snowy weekend.

Outlook: 

Continued mostly cloudy skies and warmer than normal temperatures into the weekend. There will be a chance for snow on Saturday, and again Monday into Tuesday. More snow may arrive later on Wednesday and extend into Thursday, this time with falling temperatures that are closer to normal. By next weekend temperatures will be colder than normal with some subzero morning lows in the north and single digit lows in the south.