Trends in ice cover on Minnesota lakes

frozen lake

How did this most recent winter’s (2025-26) ice season compare?

After a warm start to November, most Minnesota lakes froze during a stretch of below average temperatures between late November and mid-December. Compared to recent winters, ice formation was fast in southern Minnesota and slow in many northern Minnesota lakes.

frigid late-January cold snap helped lake ice survive a very warm February and most of a warm March, but ice breakup was still faster than recent winters in southern Minnesota. A cool April and start of May slowed ice breakup dramatically across northern Minnesota. 

The maps below show this winter’s ice formation dates, ice breakup dates and ice duration in the context of our recent memory (2017-2026) and a colder historical period (1950-1959).

Ice formation

This winter’s ice formation dates in the context of our recent memory (2017-2026) and a colder historical period (1950-1959). Click here to view the data table.

Ice breakup

 

This winter’s ice breakup dates in the context of our recent memory (2017-2026) and a colder historical period (1950-1959). Click here to view the data table.

Ice duration

 

This winter’s ice breakup dates in the context of our recent memory (2017-2026) and a colder historical period (1950-1959). Click here to view the data table.

What are the long-term trends?

The methods of Walsh et al. 2025 allow us to look at long-term trends in lake ice duration, formation date, and breakup date. Long-term trends across the data period (1949-2026) show later ice formation, earlier ice breakup, and shorter total winter ice duration.

Ice formation
Two maps of Minnesota are shown, with shaded dots denoting every lake with ice data in the DNR database. The first map shows what typical ice formation dates were in 1949. The second map shows typical ice breakup dates for 2026. Since 1949 ice formation has shifted later. Historically ice formation happened between  early November and early December but now occurs between mid-November and mid-December.
Change in the typical date of ice formation on Minnesota lakes between 1949 and 2026.
Ice breakup
 Two maps of Minnesota are shown, with shaded dots denoting every lake with ice data in the DNR database. The first map shows what typical ice breakup dates were in 1949. The second map shows typical ice breakup dates for 2026. Since 1949 ice breakup has shifted earlier. Historically ice broke up between early April to early May but now more typically breaks up in late March to late April.
Change in the typical date of ice breakup on Minnesota lakes between 1949 and 2026.
Ice duration
Two maps of Minnesota are shown, with shaded dots denoting every lake with ice data in the DNR database. The first map shows the typical number of days with ice cover in 1949. The second map shows the typical number of days with ice cover in 2026. Between the two time periods ice cover has greatly decreased on lakes across the state. Lakes historically had 4-6 months of lake ice but now have 3.5-5.5 months of ice cover.
Change in the typical duration of winter ice cover on Minnesota lakes between 1949 and 2026.
Ice variability

While the general trend is towards less ice, year-to-year variation has increased in recent decades. Below is an example from Green Lake in Kandiyohi County. While ice breakup dates are on average trending downwards, year-to-year ice breakup has swung between late and unprecedentedly early in recent years.

There are two graphs shown. On the left is a timeseries of ice breakup dates on Green Lake since 1949, overlaid with a statistical model of the trend in ice breakup dates. Ice breakup dates are now generally occurring much earlier. On the right is a timeseries of variability in ice breakup dates, as demonstrated by the ten year trailing standard deviation. Variability has almost doubled in the last 15 years, even as ice out arrives earlier on average.
(Left) lake ice breakup dates on Green Lake in Kandiyohi County and statistically modeled average trend. (Right) a measure of year-to-year variability in lake ice breakup dates as measured by trailing ten year standard deviation.

What are the shorter-term trends, over the past decade?

 Below are two sets of graphs that compare a given year’s ice breakup dates with the average ice breakup or formation date of the past decade. Ice formation and breakup are very variable year-to-year and across the state.

Ice formation
There are ten graphs shown, one for each year 2016-2025. Each graph shows the observed ice breakup dates for that year compared to the 2016-2025 typical ice out date. Year-to-year ice formation is variable, both year-to-year and within the state. 2018 and 2019 had very early formation (cold start to winter) while 2016 and 2024 had slow formation (warm start to winter).
Ice formation dates for 2016-2025 are shown compared to the 2016-2025 typical formation date.
Ice breakup
There are ten graphs shown, one for each year 2017-2026. Each graph shows the observed ice breakup dates for that year compared to the 2017-2026 typical ice out date. Year-to-year ice breakup is variable, with 2018 having very late ice breakup and 2024 having extremely early ice breakup.
Ice breakup dates for 2017-2026 are shown compared to the 2017-2026 typical breakup date.

Explore the data

Explore the full dataset of ice in, ice out, and duration below. Long-term statistically modeled trends are compared to observations in lakes with sufficient observations. Look up individual lakes in the search bar in the upper-right corner. Figures are downloadable via links. 

 

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Suggested resources

This webpage is just the latest Minnesota lake ice data explorer. Visit these sites to learn even more about lake ice and how it is changing:

The date of lake ice formation and duration are examples of “phenology,” or the timing of seasonal events. Similar to this page, the National Phenology Network tracks changes in plant-based spring phenology events and compares them to long-term averages.

FAQ

How can I become a lake ice observer?

It’s easy! Read the DNR guidelines on how “ice in” and “ice out” conditions are defined, then send your reports to the MN DNR State Climatology Facebook Page, or email Assistant State Climatologist Pete Boulay directly at [email protected]. More information on the definition of ice on and ice off can be found at the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.

What does “typical” mean? 

Here “typical” denotes the long term trends found using the methods of Walsh et al. 2025. As of 2026 these trends are largely linear for lakes across the state, so the end points of the statewide linear trend are used to denote 1949 and present-day typical lake ice. This strong statistical relationship for lakes across the state is also what allows us to define meaningful averages for only a decade of data, allowing us to compare the most recent decade (2017-2026) to the historical period (the 1950s), even for lakes where observations are sparse.

How is the data quality controlled?

The State Climatology Office carefully reviews observations to fix errors like incorrect lake IDs or impossible dates. While there is no universal definition of “ice on” and “ice off” conditions, a key factor that makes this dataset so useful is consistent recordkeeping on a given lake. For example, Lake Minnetonka ice out is declared when the lake is safely navigable, while a report of “this was the first morning I didn’t see any ice while I was out walking my dog” would work just fine for another lake.

When and how often is this site updated? 

This webpage is scheduled to be updated in late May or early June each year, several weeks after the final lakes in northern Minnesota have lost their ice.