Climate change in West Central Minnesota

Changes we've already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in West Central Minnesota has increased by 2.9°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 4.4°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 5.1°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 3.3 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. This was the same as the statewide average. 

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in West Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.3°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. 

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 6.0°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 5.2°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 to 25 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in West Central Minnesota in a given year.

Projected changes in precipitation

Average annual precipitation in West Central Minnesota is projected to decrease between 0.2 inches (-0.9%) under a very high emissions scenario and increase by up to 1.0 inch (2.7%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. The statewide annual average during the same period is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. 

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

Key climate impacts for West Central Minnesota

Water Resources

• Increasing summertime temperatures could exacerbate droughts and increase the likelihood of rapid-onset droughts [2].
• As springtime precipitation increases, runoff to waterways in the spring is also expected to increase, leading to soil erosion [5], nutrient runoff [6], and poor water quality [7].

Agriculture

• Crop models suggest that corn and soybean yields decline at sustained temperatures above 86°F [8].
• Increased temperatures over the growing season may allow for earlier planting dates and expand possible use of cover crops [8], but may also create opportunities for new or worsening pest pressures [9].

Human Health

• Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into a medical emergency [11]. Farmers and others who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [12, 13].
• Drought stresses farms, which in turn adds to mental health and wellbeing stressors for farmers [14]. The West Central region has lower provider-to-patient ratios than the state average, making it difficult to access support [15].

Tribal Lifeways

• The Upper Sioux Community is primarily situated within the Minnesota River floodplain. Given the rising frequency of droughts and intense rain events, culturally significant lands are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding [16].

Tourism & Recreation

• Increasing temperatures in the winter months could prevent lake ice formation [17, 10] and reduce snowpack, creating unsuitable conditions for popular activities such as ice fishing, skiing and snowmobiling.