Climate change in West Central Minnesota

farmer in a wheat field

Otter Tail, Wilkin, Grant, Douglas, Traverse, Stevens, Pope, Big Stone, Swift, Lac qui Parle, Chippewa, and Yellow Medicine counties

Expand all

Key Terms

Time Periods
  • Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
  • Mid-century: 2040-2059
  • Late-century: 2060-2079
  • End-of-century: 2080-2099
     
Emissions Scenarios
  • Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
  • Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)

Learn more about climate modeling and emissions scenarios

Click here to view our climate modeling primer.

Download this summary as a PDF

Click here to view PDF.

Please email us at [email protected] if you have trouble accessing the file. 

Changes we've already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in West Central Minnesota has increased by 2.9°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 4.4°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 5.1°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 3.3 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. This was the same as the statewide average. 

Expand all

Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN

map of observed temperature change in MN
Figure 1: Observed and projected temperature changes in Minnesota under “lower” (teal) and “higher” (red) emissions scenarios out to 2100 compared to historical temperature observations (orange). Figure from: Runkle, J., K.E. Kunkel, R. Frankson, D.R. Easterling, S.M. Champion, 2022: Minnesota State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-MN. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 4 pp.

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in West Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.3°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. 

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 6.0°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 5.2°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 to 25 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in West Central Minnesota in a given year.

Expand all

Map: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature

Figure 2: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) in summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota
Figure 2: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) in summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023.

Table: Projected change in days with highs above 90°F and lows below 32°F in West Central MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in number of days that exceed 90°F

Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F

Intermediate

+17

-21

Very High

+24

-25

Projected changes in precipitation

Average annual precipitation in West Central Minnesota is projected to decrease between 0.2 inches (-0.9%) under a very high emissions scenario and increase by up to 1.0 inch (2.7%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. The statewide annual average during the same period is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. 

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

Expand all

Map: Projected change in spring and summer precipitation

Figure 3: Projected change in average spring and summer precipitation (inches) by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Ad
Figure 3: Projected change in average spring and summer precipitation (inches) by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023.

Table: projected maximum single-day precipitation, change in days with snow cover in West Central MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in number of days with snow cover deeper than 1 inch

Change in maximum 1-day total precipitation

Intermediate

-11

+0.66

Very High

-14

+0.26

Key climate impacts for West Central Minnesota

Water Resources

  • Increasing summertime temperatures could exacerbate droughts and increase the likelihood of rapid-onset droughts [2].
  • As springtime precipitation increases, runoff to waterways in the spring is also expected to increase, leading to soil erosion [5], nutrient runoff [6], and poor water quality [7].

Agriculture

  • Crop models suggest that corn and soybean yields decline at sustained temperatures above 86°F [8].
  • Increased temperatures over the growing season may allow for earlier planting dates and expand possible use of cover crops [8], but may also create opportunities for new or worsening pest pressures [9].

Human Health

  • Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into a medical emergency [11]. Farmers and others who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [12, 13].
  • Drought stresses farms, which in turn adds to mental health and wellbeing stressors for farmers [14]. The West Central region has lower provider-to-patient ratios than the state average, making it difficult to access support [15].

Tribal Lifeways

  • The Upper Sioux Community is primarily situated within the Minnesota River floodplain. Given the rising frequency of droughts and intense rain events, culturally significant lands are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding [16].

Tourism & Recreation

  • Increasing temperatures in the winter months could prevent lake ice formation [17, 10] and reduce snowpack, creating unsuitable conditions for popular activities such as ice fishing, skiing and snowmobiling.

 

Expand all

Disclosure

The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100 [18]. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.

References

In order of appearance: 

  1. Akinsanola, A., Kooperman, G.J., Pendergrass, A.G., Hannah, W.M., Reed, K.A., 2020. Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 094003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab92c1
  2. Otkin, J.A., Woloszyn, M., Wang, H., Svoboda, M., Skumanich, M., Pulwarty, R., Lisonbee, J., Hoell, A., Hobbins, M., Haigh, T., Cravens, A.E., 2022. Getting ahead of Flash Drought: From Early Warning to Early Action. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0288.1
  3. Payton, E.A., Pinson, A.O., Asefa, T., Condon, L.E., Dupigny-Giroux, L.-A.L., Harding, B.L., Kiang, J., Lee, D.H., McAfee, S.A., Pflug, J., Rangwala, I., Tanana, H.J., Wright, D.B., 2023. Ch. 4. Water. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
  4. Berg, A., Sheffield, J., Milly, P.C.D., 2017. Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 44, 236–244. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071921
  5. Srivastava, A., Grotjahn, R., Ullrich, P.A., 2020. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions. Weather and Climate Extremes 29, 100268. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2020.100268
  6. Baule, W.J., Andresen, J.A., Winkler, J.A., 2022. Trends in Quality Controlled Precipitation Indicators in the United States Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Front. Water 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.817342
  7. Johnson, T., Butcher, J., Santell, S., Schwartz, S., Julius, S., LeDuc, S., 2022. A review of climate change effects on practices for mitigating water quality impacts. J Water Clim Chang 13, 1684–1705. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.363
  8. Roop, H.A., Meyer, N., Klinger, G., Blumenfeld, K., Liess, S., Farris, A., Boulay, P., Baule, W., Andresen, J., Bendorf, J., Wilson, A., Nowatzke, L., Todey, D., Ontl, T., 2024. Climate Change Impacts on Minnesota Agriculture. United States Department of Agriculture Climate Hubs, University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership and Great Lakes Research Integrated Science Assessment, Ames, IA.
  9. Kistner, E., Kellner, O., Andresen, J., Todey, D., Morton, L.W., 2018. Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA. Climatic Change 146, 145–158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2066-1
  10. Wilson, A.B., Baker, J.M., Ainsworth, E.A., Andresen, J., Austin, J.A., Dukes, J.S., Gibbons, E., Hoppe, B.O., LeDee, O.E., Noel, J., Roop, H.A., Smith, S.A., Todey, D.P., Wolf, R., Wood, J.D., 2023. Ch. 24. Midwest. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
  11. Department of Homeland Security, 2024. Extreme heat. Ready.gov. https://www.ready.gov/heat#:~:text=Extreme%20heat%20is%20a%20period,least%20two%20to%20three%20days (accessed 11.22.24)
  12. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2024. Tips for outdoor workers in extreme heat.  https://www.fema.gov/blog/tips-outdoor-workers-extreme-heat (accessed 11.22.24)
  13. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, 2020. Heat stress and workers. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/heat-stress/about/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/heatstress/ (accessed 11.22.24) 
  14. Henning-Smith, C., Alberth, A., Bjornestad, A., Becot, F., Inwood, S., 2022. Farmer Mental Health in the US Midwest: Key Informant Perspectives. Journal of Agromedicine 27, 15–24. https://doi.org/10.1080/1059924X.2021.1893881
  15. Minnesota Department of Health, 2024. Northwest Health Services Coalition: Regional profile. https://www.health.state.mn.us/communities/ep/regional/northwest.pdf (accessed 11.22.24)
  16. FEMA, 2021. Flood Map Service Center. FEMA https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search?AddressQuery=upper%20Sioux%20community (accessed 11.29.24)
  17. Sharma, S., Richardson, D.C., Woolway, R.I., Imrit, M.A., Bouffard, D., Blagrave, K., Daly, J., Filazzola, A., Granin, N., Korhonen, J., Magnuson, J., Marszelewski, W., Matsuzaki, S.-I.S., Perry, W., Robertson, D.M., Rudstam, L.G., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Yao, H., 2021. Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126, e2021JG006348. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006348
  18. Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023. app.climate.umn.edu

Suggested citation

Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in West Central Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries