Key Terms
- Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
- Mid-century: 2040-2059
- Late-century: 2060-2079
- End-of-century: 2080-2099
- Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
- Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)
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Changes we've already observed
Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in Southwest Minnesota has increased by 2.1°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F.
Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 3.1°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 4.9°F.
The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 3.8 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.
Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN
Projected changes in temperature
By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Southwest Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is the same as the projected statewide average.
Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 5.5°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 5.2°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.
By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 - 24 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in Southwest Minnesota in a given year.
Map: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature
Table: Projected change in number of days with highs above 90°F and lows below 32°F in Southwest MN
Emissions Scenario | Change in number of days that exceed 90°F | Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F |
|---|---|---|
Intermediate | +19 | -21 |
Very High | +26 | -24 |
Projected changes in precipitation
Average annual precipitation in Southwest Minnesota is projected to increase between 0.3 inches (1.1%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1.0 inch (3.4%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario.
Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.
Map: Projected change in average precipitation during the winter and growing season
Table: Projected change in maximum single-day and seven-day precipitation totals in Southwest MN
Emissions Scenario | Change in maximum 1-day total precipitation (inches) | Change in maximum 7-day total precipitation (inches) |
|---|---|---|
Intermediate | +0.72 | +1.0 |
Very High | +0.49 | +0.60 |
Key climate impacts for Southwest Minnesota
Water Resources:
- Increasing air temperatures in the warmer months when there is more sunlight increase potential evapotranspiration [2] and the risk of rapid-onset droughts — with cascading impacts for crop yield and plant health.
- As springtime precipitation increases, runoff to waterways in the spring is also expected to increase, leading to soil erosion [3], nutrient runoff [4], and poor water quality [5].
Human Health:
- Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into medical emergencies [6]. Farmers and others who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [7,8.].
- More intense and frequent winter precipitation in the area of the Buffalo Ridge may create more ice storms in the area, damaging utilities, housing, and infrastructure, and causing injury [9].
Tribal Lifeways:
- Native pollinators face rising temperatures and precipitation shifts that could jeopardize food security initiatives and culturally relevant plants and animals. The out-competition of native pollinators and a shifting climate may also lead to increased crop pests and crop disease migration, further threatening crop-pollinator dynamics and overall habitat health [10, 11].
Agriculture:
- Spring increases in precipitation coupled with heavy winter precipitation may saturate soils and flood fields — leading to more regular loss of workdays and impaired crop root growth [12].
- To limit corn yield losses, expansion of irrigation may be needed due to the impacts of decreased precipitation in summer combined with an increase in average temperature [13]
Tourism & Recreation:
- More wintertime precipitation could fall as rain, leading to less snowpack and a shorter snow season [14]. Increasing temperatures in the winter months could also prevent lake ice formation [13, 15]. Popular winter recreation activities like skiing, ice fishing, and snowmobiling will likely be constrained.
- Warmer surface waters are at greater risk of harmful algal blooms [16], which are detrimental to ecosystem and human health, threaten fisheries, and make lakes unsuitable for swimming and water sports.
Disclosure
The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100 [17]. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.
References
In order of appearance:
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- Payton, E.A., Pinson, A.O., Asefa, T., Condon, L.E., Dupigny-Giroux, L.-A.L., Harding, B.L., Kiang, J., Lee, D.H., McAfee, S.A., Pflug, J., Rangwala, I., Tanana, H.J., Wright, D.B., 2023. Ch. 4. Water. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
- Sharma, S., Richardson, D.C., Woolway, R.I., Imrit, M.A., Bouffard, D., Blagrave, K., Daly, J., Filazzola, A., Granin, N., Korhonen, J., Magnuson, J., Marszelewski, W., Matsuzaki, S.-I.S., Perry, W., Robertson, D.M., Rudstam, L.G., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Yao, H., 2021. Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126, e2021JG006348. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006348
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- Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023. app.climate.umn.edu
Suggested citation
Suggested citation: Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in Southwest Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries