Key Terms
Time Periods
- Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
- Mid-century: 2040-2059
- Late-century: 2060-2079
- End-of-century: 2080-2099
Emissions Scenarios
- Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
- Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)
Learn more about climate modeling and emissions scenarios
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Changes we've already observed
Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in Southeast Minnesota has increased by 2.1°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F.
Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 3.7°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 5.1°F.
The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 1.9 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.
Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN

Projected changes in temperature
By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Southeast Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.5°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.1°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario.
Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 5.7°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 4.9°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.
By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 to 25 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in South East Minnesota in a given year.
Map: Projected change in daily maximum temperature

Table: Projected change in days with highs above 90°F and lows below 32°F in Southeast MN
Emissions Scenario | Change in number of days that exceed 90°F | Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F |
---|---|---|
Intermediate | +16 | -21 |
Very High | +22 | -24 |
Projected changes in precipitation
Average annual precipitation in Southeast Minnesota is projected to decrease between 0.1 inches (-0.4%) under a very high emissions scenario and increase by 1.0 inch (2.7%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. The statewide annual average during the same period is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario.
Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.
Map: Projected change in summer and winter precipitation

Table: Projected change in maximum 1-day and 7-day precipitation in Southeast MN
Emissions Scenario | Change in maximum 1-day total precipitation (inches) | Change in maximum 7-day total precipitation (inches) |
---|---|---|
Intermediate | +0.56 | +0.78 |
Very High | +0.35 | +0.55 |
Key impacts for Southeast Minnesota
Water Resources
- Because of the karst landscape, Southeast Minnesota faces challenges with water quality and flooding. These challenges will likely be exacerbated in the future through heavy precipitation events that increase runoff [2], lead to nutrient leaching [3], and negatively impact water quality [4].
- Projected summertime decreases — and projected wintertime increases — in precipitation in this region are amongst the largest in the state. This could result in widely varying surface water levels [5, 6] and a need for adaptable water storage to meet water consumption demands [5].
Agriculture
- Spring increases in precipitation, coupled with heavy winter precipitation, may saturate soils and flood fields — leading to more regular loss of workdays and impaired crop root growth [7].
- Wetter pastures and paddocks increase susceptibility to animal foot diseases and may impact livestock nutrition maintenance [7].
Human Health
- Floods can lead to injury, death, and environmental and infrastructural damage. When stormwater management systems are overburdened, floods can introduce waterborne diseases to humans in surrounding areas [8].
- The Southeast region is home to some of Minnesota’s newest immigrant communities [9]. This population is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to language and resource barriers [10].
Tribal Lifeways
- Culturally important species are threatened by rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. For example, cold-water fish like walleye face habitat loss [11].
- Wild rice harvests may decline because of increasing spring precipitation, along with little snowfall in the winter [11].
Tourism & Recreation
- Longer dry spells and fewer days with measurable precipitation in the summer can lead to stagnation and low flow, which degrades water quality and fish habitat [12].
- Warmer lakes are also at greater risk for harmful algal blooms [13], which threaten ecosystem health and the vitality of fisheries.
Disclosure
The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100 [14]. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.
References
In order of appearance:
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- Drum, R.G., Noel, J., Kovatch, J., Yeghiazarian, L., Stone, H., Stark, J., Kirshen, P., Best, E., Emery, E., Trimboli, J., Arnold, J., Raff, D., 2017. Ohio River Basin - Formulating Climate Change Mitigation/Adaptation Strategies through Regional Collaboration with the ORB Alliance (No. CWTS 2017-01). U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Institute for Water Resources, Alexandria, VA.
- Harper, D., 1992. The nutrients causing eutrophication, and their sources, in: Harper, D. (Ed.), Eutrophication of Freshwaters: Principles, Problems and Restoration. Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp. 29–59. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-3082-0_2
- Johnson, T., Butcher, J., Santell, S., Schwartz, S., Julius, S., LeDuc, S., 2022. A review of climate change effects on practices for mitigating water quality impacts. J Water Clim Chang 13, 1684–1705. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.363
- Wilson, A.B., Baker, J.M., Ainsworth, E.A., Andresen, J., Austin, J.A., Dukes, J.S., Gibbons, E., Hoppe, B.O., LeDee, O.E., Noel, J., Roop, H.A., Smith, S.A., Todey, D.P., Wolf, R., Wood, J.D., 2023. Ch. 24. Midwest. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
- Gronewold, A.D., Do, H.X., Mei, Y., Stow, C.A., 2021. A Tug-of-War Within the Hydrologic Cycle of a Continental Freshwater Basin. Geophysical Research Letters 48, e2020GL090374. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090374
- Roop, H.A., Meyer, N., Klinger, G., Blumenfeld, K., Liess, S., Farris, A., Boulay, P., Baule, W., Andresen, J., Bendorf, J., Wilson, A., Nowatzke, L., Todey, D., Ontl, T., 2024. Climate Change Impacts on Minnesota Agriculture. United States Department of Agriculture Climate Hubs, University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership and Great Lakes Research Integrated Science Assessment, Ames, IA.
- Ahmed, W., Angel, N., Edson, J., Bibby, K., Bivins, A., O’Brien, J.W., Choi, P.M., Kitajima, M., Simpson, S.L., Li, J., Tscharke, B., Verhagen, R., Smith, W.J.M., Zaugg, J., Dierens, L., Hugenholtz, P., Thomas, K.V., Mueller, J.F., 2020. First confirmed detection of SARS-CoV-2 in untreated wastewater in Australia: A proof of concept for the wastewater surveillance of COVID-19 in the community. Science of The Total Environment 728, 138764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138764
- Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development, 2023. The importance of immigration in Southeast Minnesota. https://mn.gov/deed/assets/082223_immigration_SE_tcm1045-324884.pdf (accessed 11.22.24)
- Gamble, J.L., Crimmins, A., Balbus, J., Beard, C.B., Bell, J.E., Dodgen, D., Eisen, R.J., Fann, N., Hawkins, M.D., Herring, S.C., Jantarasami, L., Mills, D.M., Saha, S., Sarofim, M.C., Trtanj, J., Ziska, L., 2016. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program. https://doi.org/10.7930/J0R49NQX
- Tribal Adaptation Menu Team, 2019. Dibaginjigaadeg Anishinaabe Ezhitwaad: A Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu. Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission.
- Hare, D.K., Helton, A.M., Johnson, Z.C., Lane, J.W., Briggs, M.A., 2021. Continental-scale analysis of shallow and deep groundwater contributions to streams. Nat Commun 12, 1450. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21651-0
- Paerl, H.W., Huisman, J., 2008. Blooms Like It Hot. Science 320, 57–58. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155398
- Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023. app.climate.umn.edu
Suggested citation
Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in Southeast Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries