Climate change in Southeast Minnesota

Changes we've already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in Southeast Minnesota has increased by 2.1°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 3.7°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 5.1°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 1.9 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Southeast Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.5°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.1°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario.

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 5.7°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 4.9°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 to 25 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in South East Minnesota in a given year.

Projected changes in precipitation

Average annual precipitation in Southeast Minnesota is projected to decrease  between 0.1 inches (-0.4%) under a very high emissions scenario and increase by 1.0 inch (2.7%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. The statewide annual average during the same period is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. 

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

Key impacts for Southeast Minnesota

Water Resources

• Because of the karst landscape, Southeast Minnesota faces challenges with water quality and flooding. These challenges will likely be exacerbated in the future through heavy precipitation events that increase runoff [2], lead to nutrient leaching [3], and negatively impact water quality [4]. 
• Projected summertime decreases — and projected wintertime increases — in precipitation in this region are amongst the largest in the state. This could result in widely varying surface water levels [5, 6] and a need for adaptable water storage to meet water consumption demands [5].

Agriculture

• Spring increases in precipitation, coupled with heavy winter precipitation, may saturate soils and flood fields — leading to more regular loss of workdays and impaired crop root growth [7].
• Wetter pastures and paddocks increase susceptibility to animal foot diseases and may impact livestock nutrition maintenance [7].

Human Health

• Floods can lead to injury, death, and environmental and infrastructural damage. When stormwater management systems are overburdened, floods can introduce waterborne diseases to humans in surrounding areas [8].
• The Southeast region is home to some of Minnesota’s newest immigrant communities [9]. This population is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to language and resource barriers [10].

Tribal Lifeways

• Culturally important species are threatened by rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. For example, cold-water fish like walleye face habitat loss [11].
• Wild rice harvests may decline because of increasing spring precipitation, along with little snowfall in the winter [11].

Tourism & Recreation

• Longer dry spells and fewer days with measurable precipitation in the summer can lead to stagnation and low flow, which degrades water quality and fish habitat [12].
• Warmer lakes are also at greater risk for harmful algal blooms [13], which threaten ecosystem health and the vitality of fisheries.