Climate change in South Central Minnesota

corn field and horizon

Le Sueur, Rice, Brown, Nicollet, Blue Earth, Waseca, Steele, Watonwan, Martin, Faribault, Freeborn counties

Expand all

Key Terms

Time Periods

  • Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
  • Mid-century: 2040-2059
  • Late-century: 2060-2079
  • End-of-century: 2080-2099
     

Emissions Scenarios

  • Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
  • Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)

Learn more about climate modeling and emissions scenarios

Download this summary as a PDF

Changes we’ve already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in South Central Minnesota has increased by 1.9°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 2.9°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 4.5°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 5.1 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.

Expand all

Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN

map of observed temperature change in MN
Figure 1: Observed and projected temperature changes in Minnesota under “lower” (teal) and “higher” (red) emissions scenarios out to 2100 compared to historical temperature observations (orange). 

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in South Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.5°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. 

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 5.8°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 5.1°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 - 25 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in South Central Minnesota in a given year.

Expand all

Map: Projected change in daily maximum temperature

map of projected temperature change in South Central Minnesota

Table: Projected change in days with highs above 100°F and lows below 32°F in Southeast MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in number of days that exceed 100°F

Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F

Intermediate

+7

-21

Very High

+9

-25

Projected changes in precipitation

Average annual precipitation in South Central Minnesota is projected to increase up to 1.6 inches (4.7%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. This is higher than the statewide average, which is projected to increase by up to  1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. 

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

Expand all

Map: Projected change in average spring and summer precipitation

Map of projected change in average spring and summer precipitation

Table: Projected change in maximum 1-day and 7-day precipitation in South Central MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in maximum 1-day total precipitation  (inches)

Change in maximum 7-day total precipitation (inches)

Intermediate

+0.95

+1.1

Very High

+0.40

+0.50

Key climate impacts for South Central Minnesota

Water Resources: 

  • Increasing air temperatures in the warmer months, when there is more sunlight, increase potential evapotranspiration [2] and the risk of rapid-onset droughts — with cascading impacts for crop yield and plant health.
  • As springtime precipitation increases, runoff to waterways in the spring is also expected to increase, leading to soil erosion [3], nutrient runoff [4], and poor water quality [5].

Human Health:

  • More intense rainfall events can lead to frequent flooding, much like that seen in recent years — causing damage to levees [6], environmental and infrastructural damage, injury and death, and introduction of waterborne diseases to humans in surrounding areas [7].
  • Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into medical emergencies [8]. Farmers and others who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [9, 10.].

Tribal Lifeways: 

  • Native pollinators face rising temperatures, and precipitation shifts that could jeopardize food security initiatives and culturally relevant plants and animals. The out-competition of native pollinators and a shifting climate may also lead to increased crop pests and crop disease migration, further threatening crop-pollinator dynamics and overall habitat health [11, 12].

Agriculture:

  • Spring increases in precipitation, coupled with heavy winter precipitation, may saturate soils and flood fields — leading to more regular loss of workdays and impaired crop root growth [13].
  • To limit corn yield losses, expansion of irrigation may be needed due to the impacts of decreased precipitation in summer combined with an increase in average temperature [14]

Tourism & Recreation: 

  • More wintertime precipitation could fall as rain, leading to less snowpack and a shorter snow season [7].  Popular winter recreation activities like skiing and snowmobiling will likely be constrained. 
  • Warmer surface waters increase the risk of harmful algal blooms [15], which are detrimental to human and ecosystem health, threaten fisheries, and make lakes unsuitable for swimming and water sports.

Expand all

Disclosure

The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.

References

  1. Akinsanola et al., 2020. Environ. Res. Lett.
  2. NASA, 2022. Steamy Relationships.
  3. Srivastava et al., 2019.  Int. Cong. Model & Sim
  4. Baule et al., 2022. Sec. Water and Climate
  5. Johnson et al., 2022. Water & Clim. Change
  6.  Region Nine Development Commission, 2017
  7.  Payton et al., 2023. USGCRP
  8.  United States, 2024. DHS
  9.  FEMA, 2024. DHS.
  10. NIOSH, 2020. CDC
  11.  Elbehri et al., 2017
  12.  Skendžić et al., 2021
  13.  Roop et al., 2024 USDA Climate Hubs
  14. Wilson et al., 2023
  15.  Paerl and Huisman, 2008. Science.

Suggested citation

Suggested citation: Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in South Central Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries