Key Terms
Time Periods
- Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
- Mid-century: 2040-2059
- Late-century: 2060-2079
- End-of-century: 2080-2099
Emissions Scenarios
- Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
- Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)
Learn more about climate modeling and emissions scenarios
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Changes we’ve already observed
Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in South Central Minnesota has increased by 1.9°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F.
Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 2.9°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 4.5°F.
The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 5.1 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.
Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN
Projected changes in temperature
By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in South Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.5°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario.
Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 5.8°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 5.1°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.
By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 - 25 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in South Central Minnesota in a given year.
Map: Projected change in daily maximum temperature
Table: Projected change in days with highs above 100°F and lows below 32°F in Southeast MN
Emissions Scenario | Change in number of days that exceed 100°F | Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F |
|---|---|---|
Intermediate | +7 | -21 |
Very High | +9 | -25 |
Projected changes in precipitation
Average annual precipitation in South Central Minnesota is projected to increase up to 1.6 inches (4.7%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. This is higher than the statewide average, which is projected to increase by up to 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario.
Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.
Map: Projected change in average spring and summer precipitation
Table: Projected change in maximum 1-day and 7-day precipitation in South Central MN
Emissions Scenario | Change in maximum 1-day total precipitation (inches) | Change in maximum 7-day total precipitation (inches) |
|---|---|---|
Intermediate | +0.95 | +1.1 |
Very High | +0.40 | +0.50 |
Key climate impacts for South Central Minnesota
Water Resources:
- Increasing air temperatures in the warmer months, when there is more sunlight, increase potential evapotranspiration [2] and the risk of rapid-onset droughts — with cascading impacts for crop yield and plant health.
- As springtime precipitation increases, runoff to waterways in the spring is also expected to increase, leading to soil erosion [3], nutrient runoff [4], and poor water quality [5].
Human Health:
- More intense rainfall events can lead to frequent flooding, much like that seen in recent years — causing damage to levees [6], environmental and infrastructural damage, injury and death, and introduction of waterborne diseases to humans in surrounding areas [7].
- Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into medical emergencies [8]. Farmers and others who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [9, 10.].
Tribal Lifeways:
- Native pollinators face rising temperatures, and precipitation shifts that could jeopardize food security initiatives and culturally relevant plants and animals. The out-competition of native pollinators and a shifting climate may also lead to increased crop pests and crop disease migration, further threatening crop-pollinator dynamics and overall habitat health [11, 12].
Agriculture:
- Spring increases in precipitation, coupled with heavy winter precipitation, may saturate soils and flood fields — leading to more regular loss of workdays and impaired crop root growth [13].
- To limit corn yield losses, expansion of irrigation may be needed due to the impacts of decreased precipitation in summer combined with an increase in average temperature [14]
Tourism & Recreation:
- More wintertime precipitation could fall as rain, leading to less snowpack and a shorter snow season [7]. Popular winter recreation activities like skiing and snowmobiling will likely be constrained.
- Warmer surface waters increase the risk of harmful algal blooms [15], which are detrimental to human and ecosystem health, threaten fisheries, and make lakes unsuitable for swimming and water sports.
Disclosure
The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100 [16]. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.
References
In order of appearance:
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- NASA, n.d. Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth’s Greenhouse Effect [WWW Document]. URL https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/ (accessed 11.20.24).
- Srivastava, A., Grotjahn, R., Ullrich, P.A., 2020. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions. Weather and Climate Extremes 29, 100268. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2020.100268
- Baule, W.J., Andresen, J.A., Winkler, J.A., 2022. Trends in Quality Controlled Precipitation Indicators in the United States Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Front. Water 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.817342
- Johnson, T., Butcher, J., Santell, S., Schwartz, S., Julius, S., LeDuc, S., 2022. A review of climate change effects on practices for mitigating water quality impacts. J Water Clim Chang 13, 1684–1705. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.363
- Region Nine Development Commission, 2017. South Central Minnesota: Climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation plan. https://www.rndc.org/3d-flip-book/climate-change-vulnerability-assessment-adaptation-plan/ (accessed 11.22.24)
- Payton, E.A., Pinson, A.O., Asefa, T., Condon, L.E., Dupigny-Giroux, L.-A.L., Harding, B.L., Kiang, J., Lee, D.H., McAfee, S.A., Pflug, J., Rangwala, I., Tanana, H.J., Wright, D.B., 2023. Ch. 4. Water. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
- Department of Homeland Security, 2024. Extreme heat. Ready.gov. https://www.ready.gov/heat#:~:text=Extreme%20heat%20is%20a%20period,least%20two%20to%20three%20days (accessed 11.22.24)
- Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2024. Tips for outdoor workers in extreme heat. https://www.fema.gov/blog/tips-outdoor-workers-extreme-heat (accessed 11.22.24)
- National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, 2020. Heat stress and workers. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/heat-stress/about/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/heatstress/ (accessed 11.22.24)
- Elbehri, A., Challinor, A., Verchot, L., Angelsen, A., Hess, T., Ouled Belgacem, A., Clark, H., Badraoui, M., Cowie, A., De Silva, S., Erickson, J., Joar Hegland, S., Iglesias, A., Inouye, D., Jarvis, A., Mansur, E., Mirzabaev, A., Montanarella, L., Mudiyarso, D., Notenbaert, A., Obersteiner, M., Paustian, K., Pennock, D., Reisinger, A., Soto, D., Soussana, J.-F., Thomas, R., Vargas, R., Van Wijk, M., Walker, R., 2017. FAO-IPCC Expert Meeting on Climate Change, Land Use and Food Security: Final Meeting Report. FAO and IPCC, FAO HQ Rome.
- Skendžić, S., Zovko, M., Živković, I.P., Lešić, V., Lemić, D., 2021. The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Insect Pests. Insects 12, 440. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12050440
- Roop, H.A., Meyer, N., Klinger, G., Blumenfeld, K., Liess, S., Farris, A., Boulay, P., Baule, W., Andresen, J., Bendorf, J., Wilson, A., Nowatzke, L., Todey, D., Ontl, T., 2024. Climate Change Impacts on Minnesota Agriculture. United States Department of Agriculture Climate Hubs, University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership and Great Lakes Research Integrated Science Assessment, Ames, IA.
- Wilson, A.B., Baker, J.M., Ainsworth, E.A., Andresen, J., Austin, J.A., Dukes, J.S., Gibbons, E., Hoppe, B.O., LeDee, O.E., Noel, J., Roop, H.A., Smith, S.A., Todey, D.P., Wolf, R., Wood, J.D., 2023. Ch. 24. Midwest. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
- Paerl, H.W., Huisman, J., 2008. Blooms Like It Hot. Science 320, 57–58. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155398
- Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023. app.climate.umn.edu
Suggested citation
Suggested citation: Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in South Central Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries