Climate change in Northwest Minnesota

Changes we've already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in Northwest Minnesota has increased by 5.5°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 5.8°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 7.0°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 1.9 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Northwest Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.8°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.5°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is slightly higher than the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. 

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 6.5°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 5.0°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 - 24 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in Northwest Minnesota in a given year.

Projected changes in precipitation

Average annual precipitation in Northwest Minnesota is projected to increase between 0 inches (0%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1 inch (3.9%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. 

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

Key climate impacts for Northwest Minnesota

Water Resources

• Increasing air temperatures in the warmer months when there is more sunlight increase potential evapotranspiration [2] and the risk of flash droughts — with cascading impacts for crop yield and plant health.
• In this region, in contrast to the rest of the state, the number of days with measurable springtime precipitation is projected to decline, despite an overall projected increase in springtime precipitation. This suggests more concentrated, intense rain events, increasing the risk of flooding.

Human Health

• Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into a medical emergency [3]. Farmers and others who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [4,5].
• The Northwest region of Minnesota has the highest percentage of uninsured individuals statewide [6]. As climate impacts escalate, those with limited access to health providers will have poorer health outcomes.

Tribal Lifeways

• Culturally important species are threatened by rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. For example, cold-water fish like walleye face habitat loss [7], bison body size is expected to shrink due to warmer temperatures and droughts [8], and wild rice harvests may decline because of increasing spring precipitation and little snowfall in the winter [7].

Agriculture

• Higher temperatures in early spring may be advantageous to small grains such as barley and oats, but may become detrimental to yield as temperatures persist into summer [9].
• High intensity rainstorms that cause ponding and soil saturation can damage many young crops. Root crops such as sugarbeets may be vulnerable to increased root rot risk, especially if soil temperatures are high [10].

Tourism & Recreation

• Increasing temperatures in the winter months could prevent lake ice formation [11, 12] and reduce snowpack, creating unsuitable conditions for popular activities such as ice fishing, skiing and snowmobiling.
• Warming temperatures can expand the habitat and lifecycle for carriers of vector-borne diseases, such as the Culex tarsalis mosquito (West Nile Virus) [13].