Climate change in Northwest Minnesota

sugar beets in field

Kittson, Roseau, Marshall, Polk, Pennington, Clearwater, Red Lake, Norman, Mahnomen, Clay, and Becker counties

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Key Terms

Time Periods

  • Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
  • Mid-century: 2040-2059
  • Late-century: 2060-2079
  • End-of-century: 2080-2099

 

Emissions Scenarios

  • Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
  • Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)

Learn more about climate modeling and emissions scenarios

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Changes we've already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in Northwest Minnesota has increased by 5.5°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 5.8°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 7.0°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 1.9 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.

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Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN

map of observed temperature change in MN
Figure 1: Observed and projected temperature changes in Minnesota under “lower” (teal) and “higher” (red) emissions scenarios out to 2100 compared to historical temperature observations (orange). Figure from: Runkle, J., K.E. Kunkel, R. Frankson, D.R. Easterling, S.M. Champion, 2022: Minnesota State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-MN. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 4 pp.

 

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Northwest Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.8°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.5°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is slightly higher than the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. 

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 6.5°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 5.0°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 21 - 24 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in Northwest Minnesota in a given year.

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Map: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature

Figure 2: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature (ºF) in summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota
Figure 2: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature (ºF) in summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023.

Table: Projected change in number of days with highs above 90°F and lows below 32°F in Northwest MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in number of days that exceed 90°F

Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F

Intermediate

+12

-21

Very High

+17

-25

Projected changes in precipitation

Average annual precipitation in Northwest Minnesota is projected to increase between 0 inches (0%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1 inch (3.9%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. 

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

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Map: Projected change in the number of days with measurable precipitation

Figure 3: Projected change in the average number of days with measurable precipitation (over 0.01 inches) during spring and summer by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century.
Figure 3: Projected change in the average number of days with measurable precipitation (over 0.01 inches) during spring and summer by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023.

Table: Change in maximum 1-day and 7-day total precipitation in Northwest MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in maximum 1-day total precipitation  (inches)

Change in maximum 7-day total precipitation (inches)

Intermediate

+0.43 

+0.61 

Very High

+0.30 

+0.43 

Key climate impacts for Northwest Minnesota

Water Resources

  • Increasing air temperatures in the warmer months when there is more sunlight increase potential evapotranspiration [2] and the risk of flash droughts — with cascading impacts for crop yield and plant health.
  • In this region, in contrast to the rest of the state, the number of days with measurable springtime precipitation is projected to decline, despite an overall projected increase in springtime precipitation. This suggests more concentrated, intense rain events, increasing the risk of flooding.

Human Health

  • Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into a medical emergency [3]. Farmers and others who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [4,5].
  • The Northwest region of Minnesota has the highest percentage of uninsured individuals statewide [6]. As climate impacts escalate, those with limited access to health providers will have poorer health outcomes.

Tribal Lifeways

  • Culturally important species are threatened by rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. For example, cold-water fish like walleye face habitat loss [7], bison body size is expected to shrink due to warmer temperatures and droughts [8], and wild rice harvests may decline because of increasing spring precipitation and little snowfall in the winter [7].

Agriculture

  • Higher temperatures in early spring may be advantageous to small grains such as barley and oats, but may become detrimental to yield as temperatures persist into summer [9].
  • High intensity rainstorms that cause ponding and soil saturation can damage many young crops. Root crops such as sugarbeets may be vulnerable to increased root rot risk, especially if soil temperatures are high [10].

Tourism & Recreation

  • Increasing temperatures in the winter months could prevent lake ice formation [11, 12] and reduce snowpack, creating unsuitable conditions for popular activities such as ice fishing, skiing and snowmobiling.
  • Warming temperatures can expand the habitat and lifecycle for carriers of vector-borne diseases, such as the Culex tarsalis mosquito (West Nile Virus) [13].

 

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Disclosure

The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100 [14]. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.

References

In order of appearance: 

  1. Akinsanola, A., Kooperman, G.J., Pendergrass, A.G., Hannah, W.M., Reed, K.A., 2020. Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 094003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab92c1
  2. NASA, n.d. Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth’s Greenhouse Effect [WWW Document]. URL https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/ (accessed 11.20.24)
  3. Department of Homeland Security, 2024. Extreme heat. Ready.gov. https://www.ready.gov/heat#:~:text=Extreme%20heat%20is%20a%20period,least%20two%20to%20three%20days (accessed 11.22.24)
  4. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2024. Tips for outdoor workers in extreme heat.  https://www.fema.gov/blog/tips-outdoor-workers-extreme-heat (accessed 11.22.24)
  5. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, 2020. Heat stress and workers. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/heat-stress/about/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/heatstress/ (accessed 11.22.24)
  6. Minnesota Department of Health, 2024. Northwest Health Services Coalition: Regional profile. https://www.health.state.mn.us/communities/ep/regional/northwest.pdf (accessed 11.22.24)
  7. Tribal Adaptation Menu Team, 2019. Dibaginjigaadeg Anishinaabe Ezhitwaad: A Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu. Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission.
  8. Martin, J.M., Barboza, P.S., 2020. Decadal heat and drought drive body size of North American bison (Bison bison) along the Great Plains. Ecology and Evolution 10, 336–349. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5898
  9. Klink, K., Wiersma, J.J., Crawford, C.J., Stuthman, D.D., 2014. Impacts of temperature and precipitation variability in the Northern Plains of the United States and Canada on the productivity of spring barley and oat. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 2805–2818. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3877
  10. Dexter, 1994. Herbicide mode of action and sugarbeet injury symptoms. UMN Extension. https://extension.umn.edu/herbicides/herbicide-mode-action-and-sugarbeet-injury-symptoms#excessive-water-1667112
  11. Sharma, S., Richardson, D.C., Woolway, R.I., Imrit, M.A., Bouffard, D., Blagrave, K., Daly, J., Filazzola, A., Granin, N., Korhonen, J., Magnuson, J., Marszelewski, W., Matsuzaki, S.-I.S., Perry, W., Robertson, D.M., Rudstam, L.G., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Yao, H., 2021. Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126, e2021JG006348. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006348
  12. Wilson, A.B., Baker, J.M., Ainsworth, E.A., Andresen, J., Austin, J.A., Dukes, J.S., Gibbons, E., Hoppe, B.O., LeDee, O.E., Noel, J., Roop, H.A., Smith, S.A., Todey, D.P., Wolf, R., Wood, J.D., 2023. Ch. 24. Midwest. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
  13. Gorris, M.E., Randerson, J.T., Coffield, S.R., Treseder, K.K., Zender, C.S., Xu, C., Manore, C.A., 2023. Assessing the Influence of Climate on the Spatial Pattern of West Nile Virus Incidence in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives 131, 047016. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP10986
  14. Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023. app.climate.umn.edu

Suggested citation

Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in Northwest Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries