Climate change in Northeast Minnesota

Changes We’ve Already Observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in Northeast Minnesota increased by 3.5°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 5.4°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 6.5°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 2.8 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Northeast Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.5°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario.

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 5.8°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 4.4°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 20 to 23 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in Northeast Minnesota in a given year.

Projected changes in precipitation

By mid-century, the annually averaged precipitation in Northeast Minnesota is projected to increase between 0 inches (0%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1.3 inches (4.4%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 0.1 (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario.

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

Key climate impacts for Northeast Minnesota

Water Resources: 

• More intense rainfall events can overwhelm existing stormwater infrastructure. Flooding events can also lead to injury and death, and introduce waterborne diseases to humans in surrounding areas [2].
• Fewer days below freezing will likely shorten the ice season for area lakes [3]. Cascading effects include an earlier warming of lake surface waters and earlier summertime plankton blooms, which can deplete oxygen and degrade fish habitat [4]. 

Forestry: 

• Frozen ground conditions are important for many winter timber harvests. Fewer days below freezing may reduce or shift forestry operations [5].
• Longer dry spells, especially in combination with heat, cause stress for local tree species including paper birch, balsam fir, and cedar [6].

Human Health:

• Warming temperatures will expand the habitat and lifecycle for carriers of vector-borne diseases, such as the black-legged tick (Lyme Disease) [7, 8].
• By 2040, nearly one-third of this region’s population is projected to be 65 years old or older [9]. This population is especially sensitive to the impacts of heat, flooding, and poor air quality [10].

Tribal Lifeways: 

• Important relatives like moose face increased stress as temperatures warm [11].
• Seasonal harvesting activities like sugarbush may also shift as temperatures fluctuate less predictably [12]. Wild rice harvests may also decline because of increasing spring precipitation and little snowfall in the winter [13].

Tourism & Recreation: 

• More wintertime precipitation could fall as rain, leading to less snowpack and a shorter snow season [2].  Popular winter recreation activities like skiing, snowmobiling and dogsledding will likely be constrained. 
• More sporadic precipitation, warmer average temperatures, and longer periods of drought encourage the likelihood of wildfires. Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke can exacerbate and lead to diseases such as asthma, bronchitis, heart attack, and cancer [14].