Climate change in Northeast Minnesota

birch trees and a path

St. Louis, Lake, and Cook counties

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Key Terms

Time Periods
  • Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
  • Mid-century: 2040-2059
  • Late-century: 2060-2079
  • End-of-century: 2080-2099
     
Emissions Scenarios
  • Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
  • Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)

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Changes we’ve already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in Northeast Minnesota increased by 3.5°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 5.4°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 6.5°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 2.8 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.

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Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN

map of observed temperature change in MN
Figure 1: Observed and projected temperature changes in Minnesota under “lower” (teal) and “higher” (red) emissions scenarios out to 2100 compared to historical temperature observations (orange). Figure from: Runkle, J., K.E. Kunkel, R. Frankson, D.R. Easterling, S.M. Champion, 2022: Minnesota State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-MN. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 4 pp.

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Northeast Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.5°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario.

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 5.8°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 4.4°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 20 to 23 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in Northeast Minnesota in a given year.

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Map: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature

Figure 2: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) in summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota
Figure 2: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) in summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023.

Table: Projected change in days with lows below 32°F and -20°F in Northeast MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F

Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below -20°F

Intermediate

-20

-4

Very High

-23

-4

Projected changes in precipitation

By mid-century, the annually averaged precipitation in Northeast Minnesota is projected to increase between 0 inches (0%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1.3 inches (4.4%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 0.1 (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario.

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

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Map: Projected change in the number of days with measurable precipitation

Figure 3: Projected change in the average number of days with measurable precipitation (over 0.01 inches) during summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century.
Figure 3: Projected change in the average number of days with measurable precipitation (over 0.01 inches) during summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023

Table: Projected change in days with snow cover in Northeast MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in number of days with snow cover depth greater than 6“

Change in number of days with snow cover depth greater than 1”

Intermediate

-15

-14

Very High

-19

-17

Key climate impacts for Northeast Minnesota

Water Resources: 

  • More intense rainfall events can overwhelm existing stormwater infrastructure. Flooding events can also lead to injury and death, and introduce waterborne diseases to humans in surrounding areas [2].
  • Fewer days below freezing will likely shorten the ice season for area lakes [3]. Cascading effects include an earlier warming of lake surface waters and earlier summertime plankton blooms, which can deplete oxygen and degrade fish habitat [4]. 

Forestry: 

  • Frozen ground conditions are important for many winter timber harvests. Fewer days below freezing may reduce or shift forestry operations [5].
  • Longer dry spells, especially in combination with heat, cause stress for local tree species including paper birch, balsam fir, and cedar [6].

Human Health:

  • Warming temperatures will expand the habitat and lifecycle for carriers of vector-borne diseases, such as the black-legged tick (Lyme Disease) [7, 8].
  • By 2040, nearly one-third of this region’s population is projected to be 65 years old or older [9]. This population is especially sensitive to the impacts of heat, flooding, and poor air quality [10].

Tribal Lifeways: 

  • Important relatives like moose face increased stress as temperatures warm [11].
  • Seasonal harvesting activities like sugarbush may also shift as temperatures fluctuate less predictably [12]. Wild rice harvests may also decline because of increasing spring precipitation and little snowfall in the winter [13].

Tourism & Recreation: 

  • More wintertime precipitation could fall as rain, leading to less snowpack and a shorter snow season [2].  Popular winter recreation activities like skiing, snowmobiling and dogsledding will likely be constrained. 
  • More sporadic precipitation, warmer average temperatures, and longer periods of drought encourage the likelihood of wildfires. Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke can exacerbate and lead to diseases such as asthma, bronchitis, heart attack, and cancer [14].

 

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Disclosure

The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100 [15]. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.

References

In order of appearance: 

  1. Akinsanola, A., Kooperman, G.J., Pendergrass, A.G., Hannah, W.M., Reed, K.A., 2020. Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 094003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab92c1
  2. Payton, E.A., Pinson, A.O., Asefa, T., Condon, L.E., Dupigny-Giroux, L.-A.L., Harding, B.L., Kiang, J., Lee, D.H., McAfee, S.A., Pflug, J., Rangwala, I., Tanana, H.J., Wright, D.B., 2023. Ch. 4. Water. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
  3. Wilson, A.B., Baker, J.M., Ainsworth, E.A., Andresen, J., Austin, J.A., Dukes, J.S., Gibbons, E., Hoppe, B.O., LeDee, O.E., Noel, J., Roop, H.A., Smith, S.A., Todey, D.P., Wolf, R., Wood, J.D., 2023. Ch. 24. Midwest. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
  4. Sharma, S., Richardson, D.C., Woolway, R.I., Imrit, M.A., Bouffard, D., Blagrave, K., Daly, J., Filazzola, A., Granin, N., Korhonen, J., Magnuson, J., Marszelewski, W., Matsuzaki, S.-I.S., Perry, W., Robertson, D.M., Rudstam, L.G., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Yao, H., 2021. Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126, e2021JG006348. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006348
  5. Stockstad, A., 2024. Frozen Forests. UMN Extension. https://extension.umn.edu/natural-resources-news/frozen-forests
  6. Reich, P.B., Sendall, K.M., Stefanski, A., Rich, R.L., Hobbie, S.E., Montgomery, R.A., 2018. Effects of climate warming on photosynthesis in boreal tree species depend on soil moisture. Nature 562, 263–267. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0582-4
  7. Hayden, M.H., Schramm, P.J., Beard, C.B., Bell, J.E., Bernstein, A.S., Bieniek-Tobasco, A., Cooley, N., Diuk-Wasser, M., Dorsey, M.K., Ebi, K., Ernst, K.C., Gorris, M.E., Howe, P.D., Khan, A.S., Lefthand-Begay, C., Maldonado, J., Saha, S., Shafiei, F., Vaidyanathan, A., Wilhelmi, O.V., 2023. Ch. 15. Human health. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
  8. Johnson, T.L., Boegler, K.A., Clark, R.J., Delorey, M.J., Bjork, J.K.H., Dorr, F.M., Schiffman, E.K., Neitzel, D.F., Monaghan, A.J., Eisen, R.J., 2018. An Acarological Risk Model Predicting the Density and Distribution of Host-Seeking Ixodes scapularis Nymphs in Minnesota. Am J Trop Med Hyg 98, 1671–1682. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.17-0539
  9. Gorecki, C., 2023. Lower Labor Force Participation in Northeast Minnesota: A review of Potential Explanatory Factors. Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development. https://mn.gov/deed/newscenter/publications/review/january-2023/spotlight.jsp 
  10. Madani Hosseini, M., Zargoush, M., Ghazalbash, S., 2024. Climate crisis risks to elderly health: strategies for effective promotion and response. Health Promotion International 39, daae031. https://doi.org/10.1093/heapro/daae031
  11. Weiskopf, S.R., Ledee, O.E., Thompson, L.M., 2019. Climate change effects on deer and moose in the Midwest. The Journal of Wildlife Management 83, 769–781. https://doi.org/10.1002/jwmg.21649
  12. Houle, D., Paquette, A., Côté, B., Logan, T., Power, H., Charron, I., Duchesne, L., 2015. Impacts of Climate Change on the Timing of the Production Season of Maple Syrup in Eastern Canada. PLOS ONE 10, e0144844. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144844
  13. Tribal Adaptation Menu Team, 2019. Dibaginjigaadeg Anishinaabe Ezhitwaad: A Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu. Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission.
  14. Gao, Y., Huang, W., Yu, P., Xu, R., Yang, Z., Gasevic, D., Ye, T., Guo, Y., Li, S., 2023. Long-term impacts of non-occupational wildfire exposure on human health: A systematic review. Environ Pollut 320, 121041. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121041
  15. Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023. app.climate.umn.edu

Suggested citation

Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Mosel, J., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in Northeast Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries