Climate change in North Central Minnesota

pinecones on branches

Lake of the Woods, Beltrami, Koochiching, Itasca, Cass, and Hubbard counties

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Key Terms

Time Periods
  • Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
  • Mid-century: 2040-2059
  • Late-century: 2060-2079
  • End-of-century: 2080-2099
     
Emissions Scenarios
  • Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
  • Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)

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Changes we’ve already observed

Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in North Central Minnesota has increased by 3.7°F. The statewide average increase over the same period was 3.1°F. 

Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 6.0°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 7.6°F. 

The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 1.5 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.

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Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN

map of observed temperature change in MN
Figure 1: Observed and projected temperature changes in Minnesota under “lower” (teal) and “higher” (red) emissions scenarios out to 2100 compared to historical temperature observations (orange). Figure from: Runkle, J., K.E. Kunkel, R. Frankson, D.R. Easterling, S.M. Champion, 2022: Minnesota State Climate Summary 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-MN. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 4 pp.

Projected changes in temperature

By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in North Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.5°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. 

Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 5.5°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 3.7°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.

By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 20 - 23 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in North Central Minnesota in a given year.

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Map: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature

Figure 2: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) in summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota
Figure 2: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature (°F) in summer and winter by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023.

Table: Projected change in number of days with lows below 32°F and highs above 90°F in North Central MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F

Change in number of days that exceed 90°F

Intermediate

-20

+6

Very High

-23

+10

Projected changes in precipitation

Average annual precipitation in North Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 0.2 inches (0.7%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1.2 inches (4.4%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario. 

Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.

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Map: Projected change in average summer and winter precipitation

Figure 3: Projected change in average summer and winter precipitation (inches) by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Ad
Figure 3: Projected change in average summer and winter precipitation (inches) by mid-century (2040-2059) relative to historical (1995-2014) under a very high emissions scenario (SSP 585) using an ensemble of six climate models. Data from: Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023.

Table: Projected change in days with snow cover in North Central MN

Emissions Scenario

Change in number of days with snow cover depth greater than 6 inches

Change in number of days with snow cover depth greater than 1 inch

Intermediate

-12

-13

Very High

-15

-15

Key climate impacts for North Central Minnesota

Water Resources: 

  • Fewer days below freezing will likely shorten the ice season for area lakes [2]. Cascading effects include an earlier warming of lake surface waters and earlier summertime plankton blooms, which can deplete oxygen and degrade fish habitat [3].
  • As springtime precipitation increases, runoff to waterways in the spring is also expected to increase, leading to soil erosion [4], nutrient runoff [5], and poor water quality [6].

Forestry

  • Frozen ground conditions are important for many winter timber harvests. Fewer days below freezing may reduce or shift forestry operations [7].
  • Longer dry spells, especially in combination with heat, cause stress for local tree species including paper birch, balsam fir, and cedar [8].

Human Health:

  • Warming temperatures can expand the habitat and lifecycle for carriers of vector-borne diseases, such as the black-legged tick (Lyme Disease) [9, 10].
  • More sporadic precipitation, warmer average temperatures, and longer periods of drought encourage the likelihood of wildfires. Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke can exacerbate and lead to diseases such as asthma, bronchitis, heart attack, and cancer [11].

Tribal Lifeways: 

  • Culturally important species are threatened by rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. For example, cold-water fish like walleye face habitat loss [12], bison body size is expected to shrink due to warmer temperatures and droughts [13], and wild rice harvests may decline because of increasing spring precipitation and little snowfall in the winter [12].

Tourism & Recreation: 

  • Increasing temperatures in the winter months could prevent lake ice formation [2, 3] and reduce snowpack, creating unsuitable conditions for popular activities such as skiing, snowmobiling, ice skating and ice fishing.
  • Warmer surface waters increase the risk of harmful algal blooms [14], which are detrimental to human and ecosystem health, threaten fisheries, and make lakes unsuitable for swimming and water sports.

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Disclosure

The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100 [15]. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.

References

In order of appearance: 

  1. Akinsanola, A., Kooperman, G.J., Pendergrass, A.G., Hannah, W.M., Reed, K.A., 2020. Seasonal representation of extreme precipitation indices over the United States in CMIP6 present-day simulations. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 094003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab92c1
  2. Wilson, A.B., Baker, J.M., Ainsworth, E.A., Andresen, J., Austin, J.A., Dukes, J.S., Gibbons, E., Hoppe, B.O., LeDee, O.E., Noel, J., Roop, H.A., Smith, S.A., Todey, D.P., Wolf, R., Wood, J.D., 2023. Ch. 24. Midwest. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
  3. Sharma, S., Richardson, D.C., Woolway, R.I., Imrit, M.A., Bouffard, D., Blagrave, K., Daly, J., Filazzola, A., Granin, N., Korhonen, J., Magnuson, J., Marszelewski, W., Matsuzaki, S.-I.S., Perry, W., Robertson, D.M., Rudstam, L.G., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Yao, H., 2021. Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126, e2021JG006348. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006348
  4. Srivastava, A., Grotjahn, R., Ullrich, P.A., 2020. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions. Weather and Climate Extremes 29, 100268. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2020.100268
  5. Baule, W.J., Andresen, J.A., Winkler, J.A., 2022. Trends in Quality Controlled Precipitation Indicators in the United States Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Front. Water 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.817342
  6. Johnson, T., Butcher, J., Santell, S., Schwartz, S., Julius, S., LeDuc, S., 2022. A review of climate change effects on practices for mitigating water quality impacts. J Water Clim Chang 13, 1684–1705. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.363
  7. Stockstad, A., 2024. Frozen Forests. UMN Extension. https://extension.umn.edu/natural-resources-news/frozen-forests
  8. Reich, P.B., Sendall, K.M., Stefanski, A., Rich, R.L., Hobbie, S.E., Montgomery, R.A., 2018. Effects of climate warming on photosynthesis in boreal tree species depend on soil moisture. Nature 562, 263–267. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0582-4
  9. Hayden, M.H., Schramm, P.J., Beard, C.B., Bell, J.E., Bernstein, A.S., Bieniek-Tobasco, A., Cooley, N., Diuk-Wasser, M., Dorsey, M.K., Ebi, K., Ernst, K.C., Gorris, M.E., Howe, P.D., Khan, A.S., Lefthand-Begay, C., Maldonado, J., Saha, S., Shafiei, F., Vaidyanathan, A., Wilhelmi, O.V., 2023. Ch. 15. Human health. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment. Crimmins, A.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, Eds., Fifth National Climate Assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.
  10. Johnson, T.L., Boegler, K.A., Clark, R.J., Delorey, M.J., Bjork, J.K.H., Dorr, F.M., Schiffman, E.K., Neitzel, D.F., Monaghan, A.J., Eisen, R.J., 2018. An Acarological Risk Model Predicting the Density and Distribution of Host-Seeking Ixodes scapularis Nymphs in Minnesota. Am J Trop Med Hyg 98, 1671–1682. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.17-0539
  11. Gao, Y., Huang, W., Yu, P., Xu, R., Yang, Z., Gasevic, D., Ye, T., Guo, Y., Li, S., 2023. Long-term impacts of non-occupational wildfire exposure on human health: A systematic review. Environ Pollut 320, 121041. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2023.121041
  12. Tribal Adaptation Menu Team, 2019. Dibaginjigaadeg Anishinaabe Ezhitwaad: A Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu. Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission.
  13. Martin, J.M., Barboza, P.S., 2020. Decadal heat and drought drive body size of North American bison (Bison bison) along the Great Plains. Ecology and Evolution 10, 336–349. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5898
  14. Paerl, H.W., Huisman, J., 2008. Blooms Like It Hot. Science 320, 57–58. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155398
  15. Liess, S. Roop, H.A., Twine, T.E., Noe, R., Meyer, N., Fernandez, A., Dolma, D., Gorman, J., Clark, S., Mosel, J., Farris, A., Hoppe, B., Neff, P. 2023. Fine-scale Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. V1 released October 2023. app.climate.umn.edu

Suggested citation

Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Mosel, J., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in North Central Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries