Key Terms
- Historical Simulations: 1995-2014
- Mid-century: 2040-2059
- Late-century: 2060-2079
- End-of-century: 2080-2099
- Intermediate emissions: "business as usual" economic, social and technology trends (SSP245)
- Very high emissions: driven by increased fossil fuel consumption (SSP585)
Learn more about climate modeling and emissions scenarios
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Changes we’ve already observed
Between 1895 and 2023, the average annual temperature in Central Minnesota has increased by 3.1°F. This is the same as the statewide average over the same period.
Most of this warming is concentrated during the coldest months of the year, with average winter temperatures increasing by 4.6°F and average winter low temperatures increasing by 5.8°F.
The region also experienced, on average, an increase of 4.7 inches of precipitation per year between 1895 and 2023. The statewide increase, meanwhile, was 3.3 inches of precipitation per year.
Figure: Observed and projected temperature change in MN
Projected changes in temperature
By mid-century, the annually averaged daily maximum temperature in Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 3.5°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario. This is similar to the statewide average, which is projected to increase between 3.6°F under an intermediate emissions scenario and 4.2°F under a very high emissions scenario.
Similar to observed trends, projected increases in wintertime lows are greater than projected increases in summertime highs. On average, daily minimum temperatures in the winter are projected to increase by 6.0°F and daily maximum temperatures in the summer are projected to increase by 5.0°F by mid-century under a very high emissions scenario.
By mid-century, warming temperatures could result in 22 - 25 fewer days with a low below freezing (32°F) in Central Minnesota in a given year.
Map: Projected change in average daily maximum temperature
Table: Projected change in number of days with lows below 32°F and highs above 90°F in North Central MN
Emissions Scenario | Change in number of days that exceed 90°F | Change in number of days with a minimum temperature below 32°F |
---|---|---|
Intermediate | +16 | -22 |
Very High | +23 | -25 |
Projected changes in precipitation
Average annual precipitation in Central Minnesota is projected to increase between 0.4 inches (1.5%) under a very high emissions scenario and 1.6 inches (5.3%) in an intermediate emissions scenario by mid-century. This is greater than the statewide average, which is projected to increase by 0.1 inches (0.3%) under a very high emissions scenario and by 1.2 inches (4.1%) under an intermediate emissions scenario.
Note: Precipitation is not expected to change uniformly throughout the year, often with wintertime and springtime averages projected to increase, and summertime averages projected to decrease. In the higher emissions scenarios, summertime averages are expected to decrease so much that they can lower annual average values overall.
Map: Projected change in average precipitation during the winter and growing season
Table: Projected change in days with snow cover and in maximum 2-day precipitation in Central MN
Emissions Scenario | Change in number of days with snow cover depth greater than 1 inch | Change in maximum 2-day total precipitation |
---|---|---|
Intermediate | -11 | +0.8" |
Very High | -13 | +0.4" |
Key climate impacts for Central Minnesota
Water Resources:
- As springtime precipitation increases, runoff to waterways in the spring is also expected to increase, leading to soil erosion [2], nutrient runoff [3], and poor water quality [4].
- Warmer surface waters are at greater risk of harmful algal blooms [5], which are detrimental to ecosystem and human health, threaten fisheries, and make lakes unsuitable for swimming and water sports.
Human Health:
- Exposure to temperatures above 90°F increases the risk of heat illnesses that can turn into medical emergencies [6]. Farmers and others who work outdoors are especially vulnerable [7, 8].
- Warming temperatures will expand the habitat and lifecycle for carriers of vector-borne diseases, such as the black-legged tick (Lyme Disease) [9, 10].
Tribal Lifeways:
- Native pollinators face rising temperatures and precipitation shifts that could jeopardize food security initiatives and culturally relevant plants and animals. The out-competition of native pollinators and a shifting climate may also lead to increased crop pests and crop disease migration, further threatening crop-pollinator dynamics and overall habitat health [11, 12].
- Bison body size is expected to shrink due to warmer temperatures and droughts [13], and wild rice harvests may decline because of increasing spring precipitation and reduced snowfall in the winter [14].
Agriculture:
- The frequency of rapid-onset drought in summer may be higher due to higher temperatures and increased precipitation variability [15].
- Increasing summer temperatures increase the risk of heat stress for animals and may limit livestock production and dairy quality. More updated infrastructure (e.g., fans, misting, sprinklers, ventilation) could be necessary to maintain current production levels [16].
Tourism & Recreation:
- Increasing temperatures in the winter months could prevent lake ice formation [17, 5] and reduce snowpack, creating unsuitable conditions for popular activities such as ice fishing, skiing and snowmobiling.
- Cascading effects of a shorter ice season for area lakes include an earlier warming of lake surface waters and earlier summertime plankton blooms, which can deplete oxygen and degrade fish habitat [17].
Disclosure
The historical data in this summary are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). Climate projection data are provided by the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnerships MN-CliMAT tool, which provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota out to 2100. This is not a comprehensive summary; for other time horizons, variables, regions, and climate scenarios, please go to app.climate.umn.edu. Email [email protected] with any questions. © 2024 Regents of the University of Minnesota. University of Minnesota Extension is an equal opportunity educator and employer. In accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act, this publication/material is available in alternative formats upon request. Direct requests to 612-624-9282.
References
- Akinsanola et al., 2020. Environ. Res. Lett.
- Srivastava et al., 2019. Int. Cong. Model & Sim
- Baule et al., 2022. Sec. Water and Climate
- Johnson et al., 2022. Water & Clim. Change
- Paerl and Huisman, 2008. Science.
- United States, 2024. DHS
- FEMA, 2024. DHS.
- NIOSH, 2020. CDC.
- Hayden et al., 2023. NCA5
- Johnson et al., 2018. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg
- Elbehri et al., 2017
- Skendžić et al., 2021
- Martin et al., 2019 Ecology and Evolution
- GLIFWC Climate Change Team, 2023. Grt Lks Indian Fish and Wildlife Cmsn
- Roop et al., 2024 USDA Climate Hubs
- Wilson et al., 2023. USGCRP
- Sharma et al.,, 2001. JGR Biogeosci.
Suggested citation
Suggested citation: Coffman, D., Black, K., Boyd, K., Clark, S., Greene, B., Saravana, D., Weske, C. 2024. Climate Change in Central Minnesota. Prepared for the University of Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership. Version 1; September 2024. www.climate.umn.edu/regional-climate-summaries