Working Toward Resilience in Water Resources

sunset on a lake with a canoe

Rainfall in Minnesota is becoming more intense and irregular.

How is climate change affecting water resources in Minnesota? 

Average annual rainfall in Minnesota is expected to increase as the climate warms, but it isn't expected to increase uniformly — the timing and intensity of precipitation is expected to shift, with wetter springs, drier summers, heavier rain events, and longer dry spells without measurable rainfall. These changing precipitation extremes will challenge our water resources and stormwater management systems, and shift both when and how we experience precipitation across the state.

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Flooding

More intense rainfall events can overwhelm existing stormwater infrastructure, especially in urban areas with extensive paved surfaces. Flooding can lead to injury and death, and introduce waterborne diseases to humans in surrounding areas1. As springtime precipitation increases, runoff to waterways is also expected to increase, leading to soil erosion2, nutrient runoff3, and poor water quality4. Southeast Minnesota, with its karst landscape, faces unique challenges with water quality and flooding, which will likely worsen due to heavy precipitation events that increase runoff and nutrient leaching. The region is projected to experience some of the most significant decreases in summertime precipitation and increases in wintertime precipitation in the state, resulting in fluctuating surface water levels and necessitating adaptable water storage solutions to meet demand.

Drought

Hotter, drier summers with longer dry spells are expected to decrease water availability while increasing household, agricultural and industry demand5. In addition, higher air temperatures increase potential evapotranspiration6, leading to the risk of rapid-onset droughts — with cascading impacts for crop yield and plant health.

Warmer surface waters

Warmer waters and reduced ice cover affect fish populations and water quality. Statewide, as temperatures warm, some lakes will become too warm for certain species of fish. Minnesota walleye, for example, spawn when the water is between 42 and 50 degrees Fahrenheit, a temperature range that southern lakes might regularly exceed with climate change. Declining fish populations can disrupt ecosystems and fishing industries. Notably, Lake Superior is one of the fastest-warming lakes7, with temperatures rising about 1°F per decade since 1980 and ice cover decreasing by over 50% in the last century. Warmer surface waters also increase the risk of harmful algal blooms8, exposure to which can lead to a range of health issues in humans and animals, making water activities unsafe. Additionally, when large algal blooms die and decompose, the process consumes significant amounts of dissolved oxygen in the water, leading to hypoxic conditions or "dead zones", which are unsuitable for aquatic life to thrive9. 

Shorter snow season

As temperatures warm, more wintertime precipitation will fall as rain, leading to less snowpack and a shorter snow season1.  This shift disrupts the timing of streamflow and reservoir recharge, which many water systems rely on for gradual, predictable release10. Additionally, popular winter recreation activities like skiing, ice fishing, snowmobiling and dogsledding will likely be constrained. 

Our Work

Managing future floods and droughts in MN

Harmful algal blooms and climate change
 

Tools and Resources

Regional climate summaries for Minnesota

Minnesota Climate Mapping and Analysis Tool

UMN Water Resources Center

 

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References

  1. Payton, E.A. et. al. 2023. Ch. 4. Water. In: Fifth National Climate Assessment.Crimmins, A.R.,  et. al. (Eds.) U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. https://doi.org/10.7930/NCA5.2023.CH4
  2. Srivastava, A., Grotjahn, R., & Ullrich, P.A., 2020. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations of extreme precipitation over contiguous US regions. Weather and Climate Extremes, 29 (100268). https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2020.100268  
  3. Baule, W.J., Andresen, J.A. & Winkler, J.A., 2022. Trends in Quality Controlled Precipitation Indicators in the United States Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Water and Climate. In: Frontiers in Water. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.817342
  4. Johnson, T. et. al. 2022. A Review of Climate Change Effects on Practices for Mitigating Water Quality Impacts. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 13(4), 1684–1705. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2022.363
  5. United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2025. Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources. https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-freshwater-resources
  6. NASA, n.d. Steamy Relationships: How Atmospheric Water Vapor Amplifies Earth’s Greenhouse Effect [WWW Document]. URL https://science.nasa.gov/earth/climate-change/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/ (accessed 11.20.24).
  7. York University. 2024. Climate change is causing algal blooms in Lake Superior for the first time in history. https://www.yorku.ca/news/2024/10/02/climate-change-is-causing-algal-blooms-in-lake-superior-for-the-first-time-in-history/ 
  8. Paerl, H.W., Huisman, J., 2008. Blooms Like It Hot. Science 320, 57–58. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1155398
  9. United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2025. Climate Change Connections: Minnesota (Lakes) https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-connections-minnesota-lakes. 
  10. United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2025. Climate Impacts on Water Utilities. https://www.epa.gov/arc-x/climate-impacts-water-utilities