Working Toward Resilience in Natural Ecosystems

Minnesota is likely to experience more frequent and severe flooding and droughts, compromising species’ health and growth. Additionally, milder winters can enhance the survival rates of pests — threatening native plants and animals — and changing conditions may affect the spread and severity of diseases¹.

Approximately one third of Minnesota’s land is forested. Boreal trees like quaking aspen, paper birch, and balsam fir, already near the southern edge of their range in Minnesota, may struggle to survive as temperatures rise². This could lead to a decline in boreal forest cover, with temperate hardwoods like basswood and sugar maple replacing them¹. However, the rapid pace of warming may cause widespread dieback before these species can fully establish. Higher temperatures and drier conditions also elevate wildfire risk¹.

Minnesota’s lakes have warmed dramatically over the past 50 years. On average, lakes have lost up to 17 days of ice cover in the last half-century, contributing to shoreline erosion, higher methane emissions, and the decline of cold water fish habitats. Warmer waters also create more favorable conditions for harmful algal blooms.  These trends are projected to continue, disrupting native species like Cisco and Walleye while allowing warm-water species like bass to expand their range³.