To:  MPR's Morning Edition
From:  Mark Seeley, Univ. of Minnesota Extension, Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate
Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk for Friday, August 3, 2007

HEADLINES:

-MPR's Jet Streaming Podcast this week
-July Climate Summary
-Drought Intensifies
-Weekly Weather Potpourri
-Is Drought Relief Coming?
-Almanac for August 3rd
-Heat Wave of 1930
-What's S'COOL?
-Outlook

Topic:  On this week's "Jet Streaming" podcast

This week's podcast available at the MPR web site includes a conversation
about the origins of weather lore with David Phillips, Senior Climatologist 
at Environment Canada, and author of the annual Weather Trivia Calendar.
David reveals that there is certainly some truth in many of the weather lore
sayings that have been passed along through generations.  We also get a
regional and national drought briefing from USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.
You can find more at....

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/radio/programs/morning_edition/
or
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/radio/podcasts/jet_streaming/

Topic:  July Climate Summary

The month was warmer than normal with most observers reporting average
monthly temperatures that were 1 to 4 degrees F above the long term 
means.  Many reported 7-9 days of maximum temperatures that were 90 F or
higher.  Monthly extremes ranged from 101 degrees F at Canby and Browns
Valley on July 8th to a low of 32 degrees F at Embarrass on July 13th.  
Minnesota reported the nation's lowest temperature just twice during the
month.

Rainfall was scarce in most places.  Many observers reported less than 2 
inches for the month, while some reported less than 1 inch.  Driest areas
were in the southwestern and central counties of the state.  Hutchinson
reported their 2nd driest July in history with 0.50 inches of rainfall,
while Pipestone also reported its 2nd driest July with 0.30 inches.
For Redwood Falls with 0.16 inches of rainfall it was their driest July
in history.

Topic: Drought Intensifies.....

The dry and warm July certainly amplified drought across Minnesota.  
The latest assessment from the Drought Mitigation Center suggests that
over 40 percent of the Minnesota landscape is in severe drought, across
a swath ranging from the southwestern counties to the Lake Superior 
shoreline.  The Minnesota State Climatology Office notes that parts of
the state reported record setting dryness over the past 8 weeks, right
in the middle of the crop growing season.  Topsoil moisture is classified 
as "short" to "very short" on nearly 80 percent of the recent reports from
the Minnesota Agricultural Statistics Service Office, and only 30 percent
of the corn acreage is rated in good or excellent, while only 13 percent
of pasture lands are rated good or excellent.  See more information at....

http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/drought_situation_report_2007_070802.htm

Drought will undoubtedly be a main topic at Farm Fest next week where the 
University of Minnesota Extension will have a daily presence with educational
programs.

Topic:  Weekly Weather Potpourri.....

Farmers in southern Canada are also seeing the effects of drought take hold.
Grain harvests are expected to be much below average as many areas in the
Prairie provinces have seen only about half of the normal summer rainfall.
The impacts of moisture deficiency on crop growth and yield were compounded
by one of the warmest Julys in history.  Average July temperatures at Calgary
rivaled those of the record-setting year of 1936.

Typhoon Usagi ravaged southern Japan this week with near 90 mph winds and 
rainfalls up to 14 inches.  Many airline flights were cancelled and ferry
services were postponed during the storm.

Three districts in central and northern Bangladesh were hit by tornadoes 
last week.  Hundreds of homes were damaged and 500 people were injured by
these storms.

Overnight storms on August 1st brought winds in excess of 60 mph to Melbourne,
Australia. Trees were uprooted and some buildings were damaged in these high
winds.

The Rand Corporation reported that some business investments in the Gulf States,
especially those affected by Hurricane Katrina two years ago, have been delayed
due to the high cost of wind insurance. Both premiums for wind insurance and 
deductibles have gone up dramatically since the active hurricane season of 2005.
Some business interests have had trouble getting any type of wind insurance.

MPR listener question: Do you think August weather will bring some relief from
the drought conditions in Minnesota?

Answer: The recent NOAA drought outlook for the period August through October 
suggests that some improvement should occur around the state.  Indeed the 
weather outlook for the first half of August favors more frequent chances for
rainfall over the state, but it will likely remain highly variable, with
some areas getting missed.  It is almost too late for agricultural improvement,
except for soybeans and hay fields which might still benefit from additional
soil moisture.  More widespread relief from the drought may not materialize
until September or October, when general, large scale rainfall patterns are 
more likely.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 3rd:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F
(plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation), while the average
low is 62 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 3rd:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum
temperature of 99 degrees F in 1941; lowest daily maximum temperature
of 54 degrees F in 1915; lowest daily minimum temperature of 46 F in
1971; highest daily minimum temperature of 78 F in 1989. Record rainfall 
for this date is 2.36 inches in 2002.

Average dew point for August 3rd is 60 degrees F, with a maximum
of 77 degrees F in 1955 and a minimum of 41 degrees F in 1978.

All-time state records for August 3rd:

The state record high temperature for this date is 109 degrees F at 
Fairmont (Martin County) in 1930. The state record low temperature
for this date is 28 degrees F at Wannaska (Roseau County) in 1972;
state record precipitation for this date is 5.03 inches at Pokegama Dam
(Itasca County) in 1983.

From "Minnesota Weather Almanac":(from bookstores or write the author)

August 3rd of 1930 is remembered for the three-day heat wave that ended
that day around southern Minnesota.  Over 15 communities reported record 
highs of at least 100 degrees F over the first three days of the month.
This heat put further stress on water deficit agricultural crops.  Most
observers were to report less than 1 inch of rainfall during the month, 
one of the driest Augusts in Minnesota history.  This was the first of 
several heat waves that occurred during the 1930s.

The first week of August brought frost to Old Ft Snelling in 1831, a very
rare event indeed, though more common in the 19th Century than the 20th
Century in Minnesota.

Word of the Week:  S'COOL

Another NASA acronym, this one stands for Students' Cloud Observations
On-Line.  In order to study the accuracy of satellite-based cloud 
measurements, NASA scientists have enlisted the help of school science
teachers and their students. Beginning this fall, these people will make 
ground observations of cloud types on dates that correspond with the 
CERES spacecraft flyovers. Scientists hope to test the accuracy of the 
CERES satellite estimates against the observers of the students and teachers.
Human observation verifying instrument observation....seems like a sound
approach.

Outlook:

Though temperatures will remain near normal over the next week, there will
be scattered showers on Saturday and early Sunday, with possibly some strong 
thunderstorms in places.  Another chance for showers late Monday into Tuesday 
of next week, and even more showers may materialize toward the end of the week.