To: MPR's Morning Edition From: Mark Seeley, Univ. of Minnesota, Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk for Friday, December 22, 2006 HEADLINES: -Record warmth on the 19th -New seasonal climate outlook -Climate effects of trees vary -Skunks know how to stay warm -Potential snowfall in January -Almanac for December 22nd -Notes on Christmas past -Crawlies? -Outlook Topic: Record warmth on December 19th..... Continuing the run of warmer than normal temperatures this month (13 consecutive days since the 8th) Tuesday the 19th brought some record high temperature values to the region. The following locations reported record highs..... International Falls 38 F Hibbing 42 F Grand Forks 43 F Willmar 44 F (tied record) Grand Rapids 44 F (tied record) By Thursday, December 19th a winter storm was bringing a mixture of precipitation (freezing rain, drizzle, sleet, and snow) to the state, along with colder temperatures. Topic: New Seasonal Climate Outlook The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released the new seasonal climate outlook on Thursday this week. They considered the continuation of the current El Nino episode into early next spring and as a consequence forecasted above normal temperature conditions for Minnesota over the January through March period. The outlook for precipitation during the period suggests drier than normal condition in SE Minnesota, and equal chances for wetter or drier than normal conditions for the remainder of the state. Topic: Trees have differing effects on climate A new study from the Lawrence-Livermore Lab and Carnegie Institution finds that reforestation of tropical lands may help mitigate global climate change because the trees take up carbon, increase cloudiness, and help cool the planet. But, conversely, trees planted in mid to high latitude positions may decrease the albedo of the landscape signficantly and actually amplify the warming that is occurring in those regions, offsetting their effects on carbon storage and water vapor release. "The darkening of the surface by new forest canopies in the high latitude Boreal regions allows absorption of more sunlight that helps to warm the surface....and could be counterproductive from a climate perspective" says the article. These studies were based on current climate models tweaked by changing the landscape composition to differing amounts of forests within various latitude bands. (see Science Daily....www.sciencedaily.com or check on reports from the recent AGU meetings in San Francisco earlier this month) Topic: Skunks prefer to brave winter together.... A recent study in Physical and Biochemical Zoology reveals that striped skunks of the northern climates get through winter in better shape when they huddle together. Biologists found that skunks living in communal dens huddle together to conserve body heat, often in groups composed of several females around one male. Skunks huddled in groups were found to minimize heat loss and conserve against loss of water and body fat, emerging in the spring in much better physical condition. The study termed this behavior as "social thermoregulation." MPR listener question: My wife and I moved to the Twin Cities from Idaho eight years ago and we had anticipated being able to cross country ski each winter. Instead, we have had to travel north most winters to find enough snow base for skiing. What is the potential to get a large dose of snow next month, at least within driving distance of the Twin Cities? Answer: For now, there is little meaningful guidance from the National Weather Service concerning snowfall for January. The deficit could continue, or we could turnout and see a very wet month. Please bear in mind that the historical potential for January snowfall is great. Some of the numbers may startle you....so don't lose hope... Twin Cities 46.4" in 1982, Duluth 58.5" in 1969, Mora 32.1" in 1975 Grand Rapids 40.0" in 1975, St Cloud 32.6" in 1965, Brainerd 33" in 1950 Twin Cities Almanac for December 22nd: The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 13 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation). MSP Local Records for December 22nd: MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 48 degrees F in 1931, in the Pioneer Era it is 54 F in 1890; lowest daily maximum temperature of -12 degree F in 1983; lowest daily minimum temperature of -20 F in 1983, in the Pioneer Era -23 F in 1865; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 F in 1931; record precipitation in the modern era of 0.52 inches in 1968; and record snowfall of 7.6 inches from the same storm in 1968. Average dew point for December 22nd is 13 degrees F, with a maximum of 44 degrees F in 1941 and a minimum of -32 degrees F in 1983. All-time state records for December 22nd: The state record high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 1899; the state record low temperature for this date is -44 degrees F at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1963; state record precipitation for this date is 1.30 inches at Glencoe (McLeod County) in 1920; and state record snowfall for this date is 16.0 inches at Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) in 1968.` From "Minnesota Weather Almanac" (available in bookstores): Notes on past Christmas weather: Very cold Christmas periods occurred in 1822, 1831, 1872, 1879, 1884, 1903, 1914, 1933-1936 (four consecutive years), 1983, 1989, 1990, and 1996. Pioneer records from Ft Snelling and St Paul indicate minimum temperature readings of -30 degrees F or colder in 1822, 1855, 1872, and 1879, with a -39 F reading on Christmas morning in 1879 marking the all-time coldest Christmas in the Twin Cities area. Very cold wind chill conditions with readings from -40 to -60 degrees F occurred in 1903, 1933, 1934, and 1983. State record cold for Christmas Eve dates to 1884 when St Vincent (Kittson County) reported -43 F. State record cold for Christmas Day dates to 1933 when Big Falls in Koochiching County reported -50 F. Conversely, Christmas in 1877, 1888, 1899, 1922, 1923, 1936 and 1994 several communities reported temperatures in the 50s F for the holiday. State record high for Christmas Eve is 57 F at Northfield in 1888, while the state record high for Christmas Day is 62 F at Faribault in 1923. Snowiest Christmas Day? Albert Lea received 14 inches in 1945. Words of the Week: Crawlies Now that we are getting some snow, perhaps it is time to use some snow jargon. This term is used to describe blowing snow at ground level that snakes along in rope-like appendages across open fields. Snow of light density (powdery) may do this for days before it crusts over. Outlook: Partly to mostly cloudy over the weekend with a small chance for scattered snow showers and flurries Christmas Eve (Sun) and early Christmas Day. Temperatures will continue warmer than normal most places reaching the upper 20s to low 30s F during the day. Continued warmer than normal for much of the week between Christmas and New Years.