To:  MPR's Morning Edition 
From:  Mark Seeley, Univ. of Minnesota, Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate
Subject: Minnesota WeatherTalk for Friday, January 27, 2006

HEADLINES:

-Preliminary Climate Summary for January 2006
-Cold Elsewhere
-Global Warming Signal?
-Almanac for January 27th
-Seeing a lot of Sikurluk and Pukak
-Outlook

Topic:  Preliminary Climate Summary for January: WARM!

This January will undoubtedly be the warmest in the modern National
Weather Service (post 1891) record statewide.  Most communities 
are reporting a mean monthly temperature so far that is from 14 to
16 degrees F above normal.  On a statewide basis we will end up 
with a mean monthly temperature around 25 degrees F, over 3 degrees
F warmer than the record warm January of 1944 (21.7 F mean).  Heating
Degree Days (accumulation of daily temperature below 65 F) so closely
related to our energy consumption for home and commercial heating,
are only 60 to 70 percent of normal for the month, a blessing for 
us economically.  Most communities around the state reported at least
one day with temperatures in the 40s F and many reported days with 
temperatures in the 50s F.  Extremes ranged from -22 F at Embarrass
on the 21st to 59 degrees F near Winona on the 26th.

Minnesota reported the lowest temperature in the nation's lower 48 
states only twice this month, and further many communities, including
the Twin Cities have yet to see a reading below zero F.  In fact, 
should we finish out the month that way, it will be only the third 
time in Twin Cities climate history without a January below zero F
reading (the others in 1846 and 1990).  In fact the 2006 mean January
temperature may top the warmest all time of 28.0 F at Ft Snelling 
in 1846.  The warmth of this month has been primarily due to very 
high minimum temperatures aided by persistent cloudiness.  The 
average percent possible sunshine for the month in the Twin Cities 
area for example was only about half of the normal, around 25 to 30
percent because of frequent cloud cover.

Minnesota is not alone in experiencing the exceptionally warm January.
Organizers of festivities associated with hosting the Super Bowl in
the Detroit (MI) area have many concerns.  Motown's Winter Blast 
festival featuring dogsled races, ice skating, and a giant snow slide
may be in danger for lack of ice. Temperatures there are expected to 
remain in the upper 30s to low 40s F around the Detroit vicinity. 
Areas from Michigan across the Great Lakes and into the eastern 
Dakotas may all record or near-record warm January values of 
temperature.

Precipitation for the month has been generally less than normal,
even though it has been a cloudy month with fog, freezing rain, 
drizzle, etc.  Snowfall has been lacking, with less than an inch 
reported in some southeastern counties and only a few inches 
elsewhere.  Only the far north along the Canadian border and in the
Lake Superior highlands have reports of over 10 inches of snowfall
appeared.

Lastly, winds of over 40 to 50 mph on the 23rd and 24th of the month
closed many roads due to drifting snow, including I94 between 
Fergus Falls and Moorhead, and Hwy 2 between Grand Forks and
Crookston.  

Topic:  Cold elsewhere.....

Alaska reported temperatures in the -50 F range earlier this week, 
their coldest readings of the winter so far.  Parts of northern 
Canada also reported lows of -40 F or colder this week.  But the
real cold weather hardship headlines have been coming from Eastern
Europe and Asia where energy shortages and high prices have 
produced even cold indoor climates, with thermostats set at only
55 F.  The arctic air has persisted in places for over a week 
and resulted in 130 deaths in the Ukraine alone, mostly homeless
people with no shelter.  Parts of central Russia have seen 
temperatures as cold as -72 F.  

It was reported by the European media that in order to keep the 
chill at bay, Russian zoo keepers were giving wine three times a 
day to the monkeys, and they were providing wild boars, camels,
and reindeer with regular shots of vodka.  In fact, an animal 
trainer with the Yaroslavi circus gave vodka to the elephants to
keep them warm.  One had a bit too much and rampaged through the
circus damaging a number of buildings.  Wonder if that trainer 
lost his job?  

MPR listener question:  Do you think this extremely strange, warm
January combined with several years of warm weather is a signal of
global warming?  Any hope of a real winter again? 

Answer: I don't really know.  There is no simple explanation for 
this unusually warm January.  Global climate change may be playing
a role, but I don't know how much.  Earlier generations probably 
pondered the same questions at the end of January 1846, 1880, 1931,
1944, and 1990, all of which were extremely warm months.  January
of 1846 was followed by a dry, warm February, then a wet, warm 
spring: January 1880 was followed by a warm February and spring;
January 1931 started what was to become the warmest year in the 
Minnesota climate record, with nearly every month above normal;
January 1944 was followed by a warm February, then a cold March
and April associated with a wet spring; and January 1990 was 
followed by a warm February and a very wet spring.

For those who love winter, unfortunately it looks like the warmth 
of January will continue through the first week of February 
across our region and there will be only a few chances for any 
significant snowfalls.  

Twin Cities Almanac for January 27th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 20 degrees F 
(plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average 
low is 2 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 27th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum
temperature of 47 degrees F in 1934; lowest daily maximum 
temperature of -10 degrees F in 1915; lowest daily minimum 
temperature of -23 degrees F in 1950; highest daily minimum 
temperature of 35 F in 1944; record precipitation of 0.42 inches
in 1916. A record snowfall of 3.8 inches occurred on this date in 
1916. The snow depth on this date in 1982 was a record 22 inches.

Average dew point for January 27th is 1 degrees F, with a maximum 
of 35 degrees F in 1944 and a minimum of -32 degrees F in 1966.  

All-time state records for January 27th:

The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 61 degrees F
at Lakefield (Jackson County) in 2002; the all-time state low for 
today's date is -54 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1904.
The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 1.80 inches
at Harmony (Fillmore County) in 1944. The all-time state record 
snowfall for this date is 18.0 inches at Hokah (Houston County)
in 1996.

Words of the Week: Sikurluk and Pukak

These are words used in Greenland to refer to rotten ice, Sikurluk,
and crusty snow, Pukak.  The recent January temperatures have 
produced a good deal of rotten ice and crusty snow around our
state.  I even observed this in the Pelican and Detroit Lakes 
areas earlier this week.  Normally those lakes are frozen solid
with over 24 inches of ice, but some of the bays actually showed
open water, and certainly plenty of rotten ice and crusty snow.

Outlook:

Continuing warm over the weekend with a chance for light snow 
around the state late Saturday through Monday.  Warm and dry for 
much of next week, though not quite as dramatic as this past one.
Another chance for snow appears on the horizon for next Thursday.