To:  Cathy Wurzer,  Jim Bickal, Eugene Cha, and Julie Siple
From:  Mark Seeley
Re:  Suggestions for MPR's Morning Edition, Oct 26, 2001

Topic:  First Blizzard and Heavy Snow of the Season

Wednesday, October 24th brought the first blizzard conditions
(named Blizzard Al in ND) and heavy snow of the coming winter
season.  Grand Forks, ND reported a record-setting 10.8 inches
of snow, breaking the record for any previous October 
snowfall (8.2 inches in 1926).  Pembina, ND reported a record
10.0 inches of snowfall, while Drayton, ND reported a 
record 11.0 inches as well.  Fargo, ND reported the most 
October snowfall since 1951.

Snow began falling in the area shortly after midnight and 
lasted all day long. The North Dakota Highway Patrol reported
that 400 vehicles were stick on I29 between Grand Forks and 
Thompson by 3 pm in the afternoon.  A blizzard warning was 
maintained from mid morning, throughout the day and into the
night on Wednesday, bringing to mind two other famous October 
Minnesota blizzards....

October 16, 1880, earliest blizzard in Minnesota, struck SW 
and WC counties.  Over a foot of snow in western counties.
Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft formed in the Canby area lasted
until the next spring when flooding occurred across the 
Minnesota River Valley.

Oct 19-20, 1916 earliest blizzard of the 20th Century, with 
up to 15 inches of snow in western counties, and a 50 
degrees F temperature drop over 24 hours.

On the Minnesota side of the Red River Valley on Wednesday, 
Argyle (Marshall County) reported a whopping 14 inches, 
setting a new record there. Hallock in Kittson County 
reported 10 inches of snowfall as well, tying their record 
snowiest October recorded back in 1916. Crookston reported 
8 inches of snowfall, also setting a record amount for the 
date (and the most since 1917. Other record reports included..

8 inches at Thief River Falls (a new record)
8 inches at Roseau (a new record)
7 inhces at Red Lake Falls (a new record)
6.5 inches at Ada (a new record

History shows that significantly heavy October snowfall totals
are rather rare in Northwest Minnesota, with 8 or more inches
reported only in 1896, 1906, 1913, 1916, 1917, 1919, 1951, 
1970, and now 2001.    

MPR listener question: (from Dr. Greg Filce, M.D. and former
member of the St Paul School Board)...I was driving east
on Wisconsin Hwy 35 on Sunday, October 14th through the 
town of Luck, WI and right in town I noticed a strip 100
to 200 yeards in diameter covered with 1.5 inches of snowfall.
Do local pockets of cold air contribute to snowfalls being
so local and focused?

Answer:  Yes, indeed.  This time of year when strong cold
air advection aloft spills down over Minnesota and Wisconsin,
cold air funnels can drop the freezing level close enough
to the ground to prevent snow crystals from melting as 
they fall from a cloud base.  One area on the landscape 
where the air near the surface is mixed by the wind may see
liquid precipitation, while an adjacent area protected 
from the wind may see snow.  As the freezing level in the 
atmosphere continues to drop this month and next, snowfalls
will likely become less local and focal, but more uniform 
in nature.  

Topic: Snowfall trend upward for much of Minnesota

Recent studies of snowfall trends in the state indicate that
the long-term trend is upward.  Examination of snowfall 
records for 46 locations around the state over the past 
110 years, shows a positive upward trend in total seasonal
snowfall at 41 of them, and a negative trend at only 5 
locations.  For some, there has been an increase in average
seasonal snowfall of 15 to 20 inches over the past 100 years.
Even for the Twin Cities area, the 117 year average seasonal
snowfall is under 46 inches, but for the past 30 winters the
average is closer to 57 inches.
  
Twin Cities Almanac for October 26th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 54 degrees F 
(plus or minus 11 degrees standard deviation), while the average 
low is 36 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees standard deviation).

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum
temperature of 83 degrees F in 1955; lowest daily maximum 
temperature of 32 degrees F in 1919: lowest daily minimum 
temperature of 16 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum 
temperature of 59 degrees F in 1989; record rainfall of 1.54 
inches in 1941; and 1.3 inches of record snowfall in 1959. There 
have been only three measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891.

Average dew point for October 26th is 34 degrees F, with a 
maximum of 60 degrees F and a minimum of 13 degrees F.  

All-time state records for October 26th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this 
date is 93 degrees F at Chatfield (Fillmore County) in 1927 (the
warmest reading ever in the state for so late in October); the 
all-time low is -16 degrees F at Roseau in 1936.

Words of the Week: phantasmorgorical skies 

This term is used to describe complex skies composed of varying
cloud types and mixtures of direct and reflected light.  In
the fall particularly with the low sun angle some rather unique
lighting and colors can appear near dawn or sunset.  With strong
wind added to the mix, the skies appearance can chance rapidly
as you watch it creating a fantasy before the eyes.  Many artists
have described this effect and painted it or photographed it.

Outlook:

Cold weather will give way to moderation this weekend, with a 
return of 50s F by Sunday to some places.  Next week looks to
be warmer than normal (50s F), with a chance for precipitation
by mid week and again towards next weekend. But Mother Nature
will be giving us one more opportunity to wrap up our fall 
outdoor chores.